By Carla Mozee
Brazilian equities slipped Friday, pulling back from their
highest levels this year after a report showed Latin America's
largest economy has emerged from recession at a faster pace than
expected.
Brazil's Bovespa index fell 0.3% to 58,366.38. The benchmark in
the previous session logged its best finish since the start of
2009, at 58,535.79.
Equities started Friday higher after the Brazilian census bureau
IBGE said gross domestic product in the second quarter expanded by
1.9% from the previous quarter. Economists polled by Dow Jones
Newswires had expected growth of 1.64%.
Brazil becomes the first country in Latin America to emerge from
the recession that resulted from the worldwide global financial
crisis, which reached new heights with the collapse of U.S.
investment bank Lehman Brothers nearly a year ago.
GDP on a nonadjusted basis contracted 1.2% from the year-ago
period, but the fresh quarter-over-quarter figures reflect that
"the measures implemented by the government are working," Benito
Berber, an economist covering Latin America at RBS Greenwich
Capital Markets, said in a telephone interview.
Pressure on stocks came in part from the telecommunications
group, which had led gains in the market over the past two sessions
following a friendly takeover bid for fixed-line and broadband
serves provider GVT Holding by France's Vivendi.
Shares of Vivo (VIV), a wireless services provider, fell 1.8%
and Oi (TNE) lost 1.6%.
Also lower were steel stocks, including Vale's (RIO) decline of
0.7%, and state-run oil firm Petrobras' (PBR) decline of 1.3% as
crude-oil futures fell nearly 4% to $69.29 a barrel.
In currency action, the Brazilian real gave up earlier advances
and traded at 1.829 reals per U.S. dollar compared with 1.821 reals
per greenback on Thursday.
Among exchange-traded funds, the iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund
(EWZ) eased 0.6%. It rose 4.4% for the week.
The Bovespa closed its holiday-shortened week with a gain of
3%.
Mexican industrial output down 6.5%
In Mexico City, the IPC equity index rose 0.4% to 29,448.79,
recording its highest finish for 2009.
The IPC largely held to gains after a report from Mexico's
statistics agency showed industrial production shrank 6.5% in July
from the year-ago period, better than the estimate of a 9%
contraction produced by a Dow Jones Newswires survey of
economists.
Seasonally adjusted output increased by 2.84% from June,
indicating the hard-hit Mexican economy may be on the mend.
Banking stocks set the pace for advancers in the market after
Barclays Capital initiated coverage on 11 Latin American banks. The
broker started its top pick, Mexico's Banorte, with an overweight
rating, and issued the same rating for microlender Banco
Compartamos.
Compartamos shares jumped 4.9% and Banorte climbed 2.6%.
The iShares MSCI Mexico Index Fund (EWW) rose 0.9% on Friday. It
ended the week up 4.5%. The IPC rose 4% for the week.
Meanwhile, Chile's IPSA index on Friday rose 0.4% to 3,245.91,
with shares of Banco de Chile (BCH) up 0.3%. Barclays issued an
underweight rating on the bank. The IPSA picked up 1.5% for the
week.
Argentina's Merval climbed 6.8% on a weekly basis. In Friday's
session, the Merval shed 0.3%.
Brazil's return to growth
After GDP contractions of 3.6% and 1.8% in the fourth quarter of
2008 and the first quarter of 2009, respectively, Brazil expansion
of nearly 2% in the second quarter marks the end of the country's
first recession since 2003.
The economy is among the "the quickest to bounce back," said
Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega in a telephone conference
call on Friday.
Brazil's GDP growth rate outpaced those of other countries that
have already reported second-quarter growth, including Japan's rate
of 0.6% and Germany's rate of 0.4%, according to Alfredo Coutino,
director of Latin American research at Moody's Economy.com.
Mantega credited Brazil's performance to government stimulus
measures including higher spending and tax breaks on the purchase
of white goods, as well as the central bank's series of rate cuts
which have pushed the key Selic rate to an historic low of 8.75%.
Domestic demand in the quarter rose 3.2% from the year-ago
period.
Declines in rates offered at banks and other financial
institutions also aided the economy, he said.
The government's stimulative measures were among the "cheapest
programs in the world," said Mantega, adding that they will cost 1%
to 1.5% of GDP. He also said programs aimed at pulling the economy
through the crisis will end this year.
Brazil expects GDP growth between 2% and 3% in the fourth
quarter, and to end 2009 with an expansion rate of 1%.
Berber at RBS Greenwich estimated GDP to range between a
contraction of 0.2% to 0% on a year-over-year basis.
The government's projection of 1% appears "a little bit too
optimistic" taking into account that stimulus measure will be
phased out, which could moderate the pace of growth, said
Berber.
Also, "as domestic demand continues to rise, that should imply
higher imports and that's going to take out a little bit of the
growth next year," he said, "and it's expensive to buy dollars,"
which would create "an extra incentive to increase imports."