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Anavex Life Sciences Corporation

Anavex Life Sciences Corporation (AVXL)

9.82
-0.67
(-6.39%)
Closed January 27 4:00PM
9.6906
-0.1294
(-1.32%)
After Hours: 6:55PM

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AVXL Discussion

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meds4life meds4life 5 minutes ago
Mine are mainly in my Roth but some bux freed up in my taxable - so I own some more...a nibble, a shmear.
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kund kund 12 minutes ago
Even without trial data SAVA was trading between 1.3-1.4 b, compare that with anavex, it was trading between 300mil-500mil. Imagine SAVA with trial data and EMA filing, it would have been trading close to $150. Market simply don’t t care anavex due to its ceo.
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CrypticDomain141 CrypticDomain141 30 minutes ago
I’m not opposed to shorting a stock when it makes sense.

I’ve done it a few times and made some money. I only do that when I see something spiking unjustifiably, as a trade. No short is ever long. They HAVE to buy at some point.

Risk/reward, shorting AVXL makes absolutely no sense to me, even as a trade.

What’s the old saying? Never short a dull market. Or never short a dull stock.

I really love seeing the short interest increase in this stock. I really find it hard to believe because it’s way too risky in my opinion. But it does mean there’s a lot of buying pressure when things turn.

I don’t know about you guys, but on my platform you can’t even margin against AVXL. So you don’t have margin call pressure that you might see with a price drop that you would see in other names.

So to those that are shorting this, I advise caution.

Cheers.
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ignatiusrielly35 ignatiusrielly35 32 minutes ago
I really do not understand the short thesis, if there actually is one. They are shorting more simply to keep the lid on, in my opinion. I hope for their sake that their end game is something more than outright rejection. The risk-reward looks pretty awful to me. 
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crescentmotor crescentmotor 38 minutes ago
I hope they short another 10 million.

Yup--it really doesn't matter. AVXL, for the moment, is an all or nothing play--whether one is short or long the stock. But there are some current unknowns that may come into play providing potential additional challenges for the shorts. Those include the start of a Parkinson's trial involving a huge disease market, the outcome of the mid stage schizophrenia trial in a large potential market, the possibility of a partnership in AD, etc.
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crescentmotor crescentmotor 51 minutes ago
Short didn't do same with SAVA

Disagree. With the exception of a couple of price runs, the shorts owned SAVA lock, stock, and barrel. At the time SAVA's TLD was released, its capitalization was a measly $1.3 billion.
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skitahoe skitahoe 54 minutes ago
I've never been a short, I'm sure that some do profit with that approach however. I really wonder if their potential gains are as great as if the analysts following the stock are right, and if in roughly this year the stock moves to the $40+ range they're all forecasting.

The thing is, if they're right about that, in 2026 I don't believe their forecasts will remain $40+ and frankly with an approval late in 2025 or early 2026 I wouldn't be surprised if they were looking at over $100 for their targets. That's over a ten banger from where we are today.

Are many shorts actually making ten times their investment in two years? I'm sure that some can point to when they've done it, but at the same time I wonder if some of their positions didn't go South and result in large losses that they don't talk about.

Over the years I've know many people who daytraded for at least a while. Most are no longer doing it because just one really bad transaction cost them much, sometimes more, than all the gains they made with hundreds, or thousands of trades.

All my long investments haven't gained, but enough have that I don't worry about those that failed.

Gary
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crescentmotor crescentmotor 58 minutes ago
I agree though it may be argued recent events peer review/OLE/EMA submission should have been those major positive events that overwhelm them.

The recent events are extremely positive; however, those events do not force the shorts to take any immediate actions as they know, barring something unexpected (like a partnership, etc.), that they have many months before any consequential EMA action occurs. That being said, I think a successful schizophrenia trial could be expected to rock their boat at least temporarily. The short position is huge and comes with a lot of firepower to keep things under control.
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B60611 B60611 1 hour ago
Yet, all that shorting only got SP down 57 cents between Dec 30 and Jan 14 (T+1 settlement dates of Dec 31 and Jan 15). Someone was buying on the other end.
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kund kund 1 hour ago
Short didn't do same with SAVA, even though it had so many issues with research data. What did to it was the trial failure PR.

Problem with anvex is the ceo, who has been lying for last 10 year with his tiny trial data. Market doesn’t have any confidence.
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Hosai Hosai 1 hour ago
"No kidding--I sincerely hope you are not just now coming to that realization. The shorts have owned AVXL's stock price for years except for brief periods. They will continue to do so unless driven out by major positive events that overwhelm them."

I agree though it may be argued recent events peer review/OLE/EMA submission should have been those major positive events that overwhelm them.
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RedShoulder RedShoulder 1 hour ago
From January CHMP meeting agenda.

B.6. START OF THE PROCEDURES TIMETABLES FOR INFORMATION
B.6.1. Start of procedure for New Applications: timetables for information
Nadofaragene firadenovec -
EMEA/H/C/005856, ATMP
treatment of adult patients with high-grade
(HG), Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG)-
unresponsive non-muscle invasive bladder
cancer (NMIBC).,
Nogapendekin alfa / Inbakicept -
EMEA/H/C/006622
treatment of adult patients with BCG-
EMA/CHMP/585933/2024 Page 50/84
unresponsive non-muscle invasive bladder
cancer (NMIBC) with carcinoma in situ (CIS)
with or without papillary tumours
Blarcamesine - EMEA/H/C/006475
treatment of Alzheimer’s disease and dementia

Thanks Steady for expanding the CHMP agenda listing Blarcamesine for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease and dementia.

Looks like Anavex's drug Blarcamesine is moving along the EMA chain nicely.
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crescentmotor crescentmotor 1 hour ago
They intend to short this stock into oblivion.

No kidding--I sincerely hope you are not just now coming to that realization. The shorts have owned AVXL's stock price for years except for brief periods. They will continue to do so unless driven out by major positive events that overwhelm them.
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crescentmotor crescentmotor 2 hours ago
But at some point, upwaves don't keep retesting the bottoms.

They can when up to 90% of the trading is driven by machine programmed algorithms. Applying traditional charting techniques to a low volume stock moved mostly by machine trading is a tall if not impossible task. You're looking for patterns that mostly don't exist.
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Steady_T Steady_T 2 hours ago
From January CHMP meeting agenda.

B.6. START OF THE PROCEDURES TIMETABLES FOR INFORMATION
B.6.1. Start of procedure for New Applications: timetables for information
Nadofaragene firadenovec -
EMEA/H/C/005856, ATMP
treatment of adult patients with high-grade
(HG), Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG)-
unresponsive non-muscle invasive bladder
cancer (NMIBC).,
Nogapendekin alfa / Inbakicept -
EMEA/H/C/006622
treatment of adult patients with BCG-
EMA/CHMP/585933/2024 Page 50/84
unresponsive non-muscle invasive bladder
cancer (NMIBC) with carcinoma in situ (CIS)
with or without papillary tumours
Blarcamesine - EMEA/H/C/006475
treatment of Alzheimer’s disease and dementia
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sab63090 sab63090 2 hours ago
Mike:

Oh no.....!

We be their prisoners.......🤕
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sab63090 sab63090 2 hours ago
Good call, Tom!

I did not expect that we would see what happened today, but was happy to see that this bust did not go much below the 50 day sma and was at a higher price than the prior $9....so I'm still holding to the opinion that the 50 day is working as a support level generally.

Most market indexes were affected except for the big consumer oriented ones.....MCD, HD, WMT, COST....all have excellent management!
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Hosai Hosai 3 hours ago
From Irwin Tang on fb group:

A response from the chief scientist of the Alzheimer's Association:
The Association has been following blarcamesine very closely, we were present at CTAD in Lisbon this fall when some of the first topline results were released, and welcomed the peer-reviewed publication of the topline results. At this time, we are still waiting to hear what the company will do in terms of next steps for blarcamesine. We are not aware that the drug has been submitted to the FDA for their review and approval. So at this time this drug is still considered for investigational use and in development and any results you are seeing published or in the news are not intended to convey conclusions about efficacy or safety. This will be the responsibility of the FDA. There is no guarantee that any product will successfully complete clinical development or gain health authority approval.
So we will continue to follow this closely. But as always, the Association is fully committed to leading, funding and conducting research that will give more options to patients to treat Alzheimer's or other dementia.
END of EXCERPT
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sab63090 sab63090 3 hours ago
k9uwa

Glad that is clear now, so end of April it is!!!
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RedShoulder RedShoulder 3 hours ago
"First mention of us on EMA site that I've seen, outside of the list. This mentioned in agenda for chmp meeting today through Thursday"
Post by Earldog on ST.

https://stocktwits.com/Earldog/message/601725682
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ignatiusrielly35 ignatiusrielly35 3 hours ago
I hope they short another 10 million.
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Steady_T Steady_T 3 hours ago
Thx for bringing that to the board.

Carefully placed, that amount of selling can shift the share price considerably.
Short increase +1,594,842 as of trading day 1/13/25.
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mike_dotcom mike_dotcom 4 hours ago
The shorts didn't miss it. Wish I'd have joined them.
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Steady_T Steady_T 4 hours ago
We did hit $14 recently. Did you miss that?
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mike_dotcom mike_dotcom 4 hours ago
23,395,280! They intend to short this stock into oblivion.
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mike_dotcom mike_dotcom 4 hours ago
The short interest came out today and it really should NOT surprise anyone that it's the highest EVER -
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg. Daily Share Volume Days to Cover
01/15/2025 23,395,280 2,387,788 9.797888

That's UP 1.6 million since the last report.
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oldmystic oldmystic 4 hours ago
Is this composite model related to the composition of matter patent?
Different matter
https://invst.ly/18mi5o
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mauismart mauismart 4 hours ago
Short sale a to short sale b program was running again they do this every few days now.
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kund kund 4 hours ago
Your models are like anavex data, keep changing every day.
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123tom 123tom 4 hours ago
Today's plunge to 9.43 ....
Not bullish. Last week's climb rose past the 10.60 resistance I was watching, and peaked at 10.80. It was not a breakout, as today's plunge demonstrated. So we saw an upwave from 9 dollars to 10.80, which gave me a chance to plot the basic support steps to watch for, and see what the pullback does next. Today showed what it did Next.
The Selling tumbled price right through the 10.00/9.90/9.80 support zone like it was nothing. Settled around 9.45 , a sell off from 10.80 to 9.40... nice and easy. And now this after hours jump back to 10 something.... not buyin it. Volatile moves disrupting the technical patterns, tricky game.... and my target watch now looks to retest the 9 dollar step. for a few more trading shares. If we're looking to see a short term upwave pattern developing, ... today was a technical set back. we need to see support steps Hold...not get crushed. maybe short term, we could see a retest of the 9 area. But at some point, upwaves don't keep retesting the bottoms.
🎱🤪🥸👺🤡🤖🫡
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Investor2014 Investor2014 4 hours ago
Is this composite model related to the composition of matter patent?
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oldmystic oldmystic 4 hours ago
Composite Model: 8.26 by 01/29/25, 15.25 by 03/27/25: https://invst.ly/18mhe4
Detail 8.26: https://tvc-screenshots.investing.com/tvc_d5a29d2aa8878befcd2129463fbd3866.png
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BDR10 BDR10 5 hours ago
I see so many people saying what a great buying opportunity ...over the last decade I've seen hundreds of buying opportunities when do we finally get the selling opportunity other than in February 2021 which I made out very well on... but it sure would be nice to get a couple of selling opportunities
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frrol frrol 5 hours ago
He argues that using high-threshold responder analysis in a parallel-arm RCT (an example is our use of odds risk in the 2b/3) can lead too easily to what he calls "causal fraud". (Missling redacted his claim of meeting the ADL endpoint.) He explains why "average between-group difference in outcome scores", eg % change in mean score, should be used instead. It's not a very profound paper.
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boi568 boi568 6 hours ago
Perhaps that question can come up during the clock stop.
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rx7171 rx7171 6 hours ago
Working days as defined by the EMA
are five days per calendar week.

https://www.google.com/search?q=how+does+the+EMA+define+working+days+for+the+MAA+process.&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-us&client=safari

The historical median length of Clock Stop One for standard review is 81 days.
Not clear if these are working days or calendar days.
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Bourbon_on_my_cornflakes Bourbon_on_my_cornflakes 6 hours ago
the MAA [language] is covering a pretty broad range of dementia.

That's pretty cool if true. A potential approval not just for alz but for other forms of dementia would expand the market significantly. Would they grant that if the test was just alz patients?
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Hosai Hosai 6 hours ago
The professor who was bashing the 2b/3 trial due to the pubpeer comments and being published 'merely' in JPAD today is posting about his new paper in 'AD and Dementia'. Clearly the impact factor differences between 13 and 8.5 makes all the difference when it comes to "rigorous peer review"...

https://x.com/ProfRobHoward/status/1881824740656169286

https://x.com/ProfRobHoward/status/1883870612806066383
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rx7171 rx7171 6 hours ago
As well as being minimally effective and possibly fatal Europe as a whole does not have the ocean of money the MABs and their treatment protocol requires.
It’s just reality and they know it is unsustainable.

The option to approve an effective, easy to treat with minimal effects and economical treatment will be grabbed by both hands by the end of this year.
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georgejjl georgejjl 7 hours ago
Read each and ever line of each and every page of the January 2025 Anavex Corporate Presentation

https://www.anavex.com/_files/ugd/79bcf7_da38b4e0ad4b4ff888363403e3962ef2.pdf

Good luck and GOD bless,
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hnbadger1 hnbadger1 7 hours ago
Thanks for bringing that to up Boi!
It seems that when the AD and dementia was listed on the EMA filing, people on the MB just kind of blew it off.
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georgejjl georgejjl 7 hours ago
Listen to the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference presentation by Dr. Missling MS PhD MBA

Notice what he said about the new Parkinson's disease trial.

https://jpmorgan.metameetings.net/events/healthcare25/sessions/58186-anavex-life-sciences/webcast/general_signin?gpu_only=true&kiosk=true

Good luck and GOD bless,
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Investor2014 Investor2014 8 hours ago
Just a gentle reminder that the patent is valuable if it has utility. The patent will have utility only once clinical trials are successfully completed with the new composition of matter drug and achieves regulatory approval, which could happen and would then complete at least 4 - 5 years from now.
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georgejjl georgejjl 8 hours ago
Within the last 30 minutes of trading today expect a a large amount of buying of AVXL stock!!!

Good luck and GOD bless,
🙄 1
k9uwa k9uwa 8 hours ago
Yes. and I screwed up as well. Acceptance Date was our Xmas Present. Frrol had it right all along Apr 25.

John k9uwa
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mike_dotcom mike_dotcom 8 hours ago
Just being realistic. I know this piece of schitt well.
👍️ 1 😴 1
boi568 boi568 8 hours ago
I'm noting on Stocktwits posts from today's patent with hypothetical usage examples including patients with "unspecified progressive dementia." This description lines up pretty well with the EMA description of AD "and other dementia." I think this additional phrase has meaning and that the MAA is covering a pretty broad range of dementia.
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Bourbon_on_my_cornflakes Bourbon_on_my_cornflakes 8 hours ago
That's as cheery as a moldy cheese and sauerkraut sandwich.

Remarkable emotional consistency
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mike_dotcom mike_dotcom 8 hours ago
I bet it'll be an even better buying opportunity tomorrow.
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D-Mike D-Mike 8 hours ago
Congrats, I bought more in my Roth today as well. Cheers to significant future returns🍻
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