CrypticDomain141
30 minutes ago
I’m not opposed to shorting a stock when it makes sense.
I’ve done it a few times and made some money. I only do that when I see something spiking unjustifiably, as a trade. No short is ever long. They HAVE to buy at some point.
Risk/reward, shorting AVXL makes absolutely no sense to me, even as a trade.
What’s the old saying? Never short a dull market. Or never short a dull stock.
I really love seeing the short interest increase in this stock. I really find it hard to believe because it’s way too risky in my opinion. But it does mean there’s a lot of buying pressure when things turn.
I don’t know about you guys, but on my platform you can’t even margin against AVXL. So you don’t have margin call pressure that you might see with a price drop that you would see in other names.
So to those that are shorting this, I advise caution.
Cheers.
crescentmotor
38 minutes ago
I hope they short another 10 million.
Yup--it really doesn't matter. AVXL, for the moment, is an all or nothing play--whether one is short or long the stock. But there are some current unknowns that may come into play providing potential additional challenges for the shorts. Those include the start of a Parkinson's trial involving a huge disease market, the outcome of the mid stage schizophrenia trial in a large potential market, the possibility of a partnership in AD, etc.
skitahoe
54 minutes ago
I've never been a short, I'm sure that some do profit with that approach however. I really wonder if their potential gains are as great as if the analysts following the stock are right, and if in roughly this year the stock moves to the $40+ range they're all forecasting.
The thing is, if they're right about that, in 2026 I don't believe their forecasts will remain $40+ and frankly with an approval late in 2025 or early 2026 I wouldn't be surprised if they were looking at over $100 for their targets. That's over a ten banger from where we are today.
Are many shorts actually making ten times their investment in two years? I'm sure that some can point to when they've done it, but at the same time I wonder if some of their positions didn't go South and result in large losses that they don't talk about.
Over the years I've know many people who daytraded for at least a while. Most are no longer doing it because just one really bad transaction cost them much, sometimes more, than all the gains they made with hundreds, or thousands of trades.
All my long investments haven't gained, but enough have that I don't worry about those that failed.
Gary
crescentmotor
58 minutes ago
I agree though it may be argued recent events peer review/OLE/EMA submission should have been those major positive events that overwhelm them.
The recent events are extremely positive; however, those events do not force the shorts to take any immediate actions as they know, barring something unexpected (like a partnership, etc.), that they have many months before any consequential EMA action occurs. That being said, I think a successful schizophrenia trial could be expected to rock their boat at least temporarily. The short position is huge and comes with a lot of firepower to keep things under control.
sab63090
2 hours ago
Good call, Tom!
I did not expect that we would see what happened today, but was happy to see that this bust did not go much below the 50 day sma and was at a higher price than the prior $9....so I'm still holding to the opinion that the 50 day is working as a support level generally.
Most market indexes were affected except for the big consumer oriented ones.....MCD, HD, WMT, COST....all have excellent management!
Hosai
3 hours ago
From Irwin Tang on fb group:
A response from the chief scientist of the Alzheimer's Association:
The Association has been following blarcamesine very closely, we were present at CTAD in Lisbon this fall when some of the first topline results were released, and welcomed the peer-reviewed publication of the topline results. At this time, we are still waiting to hear what the company will do in terms of next steps for blarcamesine. We are not aware that the drug has been submitted to the FDA for their review and approval. So at this time this drug is still considered for investigational use and in development and any results you are seeing published or in the news are not intended to convey conclusions about efficacy or safety. This will be the responsibility of the FDA. There is no guarantee that any product will successfully complete clinical development or gain health authority approval.
So we will continue to follow this closely. But as always, the Association is fully committed to leading, funding and conducting research that will give more options to patients to treat Alzheimer's or other dementia.
END of EXCERPT
123tom
4 hours ago
Today's plunge to 9.43 ....
Not bullish. Last week's climb rose past the 10.60 resistance I was watching, and peaked at 10.80. It was not a breakout, as today's plunge demonstrated. So we saw an upwave from 9 dollars to 10.80, which gave me a chance to plot the basic support steps to watch for, and see what the pullback does next. Today showed what it did Next.
The Selling tumbled price right through the 10.00/9.90/9.80 support zone like it was nothing. Settled around 9.45 , a sell off from 10.80 to 9.40... nice and easy. And now this after hours jump back to 10 something.... not buyin it. Volatile moves disrupting the technical patterns, tricky game.... and my target watch now looks to retest the 9 dollar step. for a few more trading shares. If we're looking to see a short term upwave pattern developing, ... today was a technical set back. we need to see support steps Hold...not get crushed. maybe short term, we could see a retest of the 9 area. But at some point, upwaves don't keep retesting the bottoms.
🎱🤪🥸👺🤡🤖🫡