TIDMORCA
RNS Number : 1578M
Orcadian Energy PLC
10 January 2023
10 January 2023
Orcadian Energy plc
("Orcadian Energy", "Orcadian" or the "Company")
Pilot Technical Resource Upgrade
Highlights
-- Management has completed an update of their estimate of
technically recoverable resources for the Pilot field
-- Technically recoverable resources have increased 18% to 97
MMbbl for a P50 case based upon a polymer flood development
scheme
-- Comprehensive geophysical interpretation and geological and
dynamic reservoir modelling work completed with support from Axis
and TRACS
-- Upside resource estimate for Pilot alone is now 131 MMbbl.
Summary
Orcadian's estimate of Pilot field resources was audited in a
CPR by Sproule in 2021 and was included in the Company's Admission
Document. Sproule assigned 78.8 MMbbl of 2P reserves to the
project, 1P reserves were 58.5 MMbbl and 3P reserves were 110.5
MMbbl.
Since listing Orcadian has licensed and, with support from Axis,
interpreted newly reprocessed seismic data over Pilot, which
resulted in an uplift to the developed area oil-in-place. TRACS
then constructed a range of geological realisations and the
Orcadian team ran multiple dynamic reservoir simulations to
establish a new range of technically recoverable resources.
The multiple geological models were designed to incorporate the
full range of heterogeneity that we see as possible across the
Pilot field, and the new full-field reservoir models were then
calibrated to the results of our polymer core flood experimental
results. These models have been tested with a range of
possibilities for multiple parameters and from that work the team
have derived a statistical range of developed area recovery factors
which is highly consistent with the range of recovery factors
adopted by Sproule in the CPR. This convergence provides great
confidence in the latest range of resource estimates as the
estimates of recovery factor have been arrived at from two entirely
different routes: a stochastic reservoir simulation approach
(Orcadian management) and by comparison with analogue fields
(Sproule).
The table below outlines the Management updated estimate of
technically recoverable resources for the Pilot field:
Technically recoverable Sproule CPR Orcadian management U plift
resources (i.e. before Table 2 estimates
an economic cut-off)
MMbbl
Proven or P90 61.5 65.3 6.2%
------------ -------------------- --------
Proven plus probable
or P50 82.0 97.1 18.4%
------------ -------------------- --------
Proven, probable plus
possible or P10 112.8 131.0 16.1%
------------ -------------------- --------
These new estimates incorporate the impact of optimised polymer
dosages and can be directly compared with the technical recoverable
resources noted in Table 2 of the Sproule CPR (see page 159 of the
Company's Admission Document, available on the Company's
website).
For clarity, these are management estimates, represent gross
production from the field, and have not been audited by Orcadian's
Competent Person. This resource update is SPE PRMS 2018 system
compliant. The figures quoted are technically recoverable resources
before the application of an economic cut-off which is required for
the classification of these resources as reserves.
Steve Brown, Orcadian's CEO, commented:
"We are very pleased with the results of this updated resource
estimate. This is the culmination of eighteen months of work, which
started with the interpretation of the newly reprocessed seismic
from TGS. Since then, working with TRACS, we have constructed
multiple geological realisations and tested our development plan
taking into account both downside scenarios as well as the exciting
upside possibilities.
"A thorough understanding of the reservoir and how it will
perform is the foundation of any sound development plan. We are
confident that this work has not only given us that understanding,
but will also provide an excellent basis for potential farm-in
partners to evaluate the Pilot development in the coming
months."
For further information on the Company please visit the
Company's website: https://orcadian.energy
Qualified Person's Statement
Pursuant to the requirements of the AIM Rules and in particular,
the AIM Note for Mining and Oil and Gas Companies, Maurice Bamford
has reviewed and approved the technical information and resource
reporting contained in this announcement. Maurice has more than 33
years' experience in the oil & gas industry and 3 years in
academia. He holds a BSc in Geology from Queens University Belfast
and a PhD in Geology from the National University of Ireland.
Maurice is a Fellow of the Geological Society, London, and a member
of the Petroleum Exploration Society of Great Britain. He is
Exploration and Geoscience Manager at Orcadian Energy.
Contact:
Orcadian Energy plc + 44 20 7920 3150
Steve Brown, CEO
Alan Hume, CFO
WH Ireland (Nomad and Joint Broker) +44 20 7220 1666
Katy Mitchell / Andrew de Andrade (Nomad)
Harry Ansell / Fraser Marshall (Corporate
Broking)
Tavistock (PR) + 44 20 7920 3150
Nick Elwes / Simon Hudson orcadian@tavistock.co.uk
Charlesbye (PR) + 44 7403 050525
Lee Cain / Lucia Hodgson
About Orcadian Energy
Orcadian is a North Sea focused, low emissions, oil and gas
development company . In planning its Pilot development, Orcadian
has selected wind power to transform oil production into a cleaner
and greener process. The Pilot project is moving towards approval
and will be amongst the lowest carbon emitting oil production
facilities in the world, despite being a viscous crude. Orcadian
may be a small operator, but it is also nimble, and the Directors
believe it has grasped opportunities that have eluded some of the
much bigger companies. As we strike a balance between Net Zero and
a sustainable energy supply, Orcadian intends to play its part to
minimise the cost of Net Zero and to deliver reliable organic
energy.
Orcadian Energy (CNS) Ltd ("CNS"), Orcadian's operating
subsidiary, was founded in 2014 and is the sole licensee of P2244,
which contains 78.8 MMbbl of 2P Reserves in the Pilot discovery,
and of P2320 and P2482, which contain a further 77.8 MMbbl of 2C
Contingent Resources in the Elke, Narwhal and Blakeney discoveries
(as audited by Sproule, see the CPR in the Company's Admission
Document for more details). Within these licences there are also
191 MMbbl of unrisked Prospective Resources. These licences are in
blocks 21/27, 21/28, 28/2 and 28/3, and lie 150 kms due East of
Aberdeen. The Company also has a 50% working interest in P2516,
which contains the Fynn discoveries. P2516 is administered by the
Parkmead Group and covers blocks 14/20g and 15/16g, which lie
midway between the Piper and Claymore fields, 180 kms due East of
Wick.
Pilot, which is the largest oilfield in Orcadian's portfolio,
was discovered by Fina in 1989 and has been well appraised. In
total five wells and two sidetracks were drilled on Pilot,
including a relatively short horizontal well which produced over
1,800 bbls/day on test. Orcadian's proposed low emissions, field
development plan for Pilot is based upon a Floating Production
Storage and Offloading vessel (FPSO), with over thirty wells to be
drilled by a Jack-up rig through a pair of well head platforms and
provision of power from a floating wind turbine.
Emissions per barrel produced are expected to be about a tenth
of the 2021 North Sea average, and less than half of the lowest
emitting oil facility currently operating on the UKCS. On a global
basis this places the Pilot field emissions at the low end of the
lowest 5% of global oil production.
Glossary
1P Proven reserves
2P Proven plus probable reserves
----------------------------------------------------
3P Proven, probable and possible reserves
----------------------------------------------------
bbls/day Barrels per day
----------------------------------------------------
2C Mid case estimate of contingent resources
----------------------------------------------------
CPR Competent Person's Report
----------------------------------------------------
FPSO Floating Production, Storage and Offloading vessel
----------------------------------------------------
MMbbl Million barrels
----------------------------------------------------
P10 10% probability of being exceeded, determined using
probabilistic methods
----------------------------------------------------
P50 50% probability of being exceeded, determined using
probabilistic methods
----------------------------------------------------
P90 90% probability of being exceeded, determined using
probabilistic methods
----------------------------------------------------
PRMS Petroleum Resources Management System
----------------------------------------------------
SPE Society of Petroleum Engineers
----------------------------------------------------
UKCS United Kingdom Continental Shelf
----------------------------------------------------
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END
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