Turkey, with Data Stuffing - Earnings Preview
November 17 2011 - 7:00PM
Zacks
Earnings Preview 11/18/11
There will only be a handful of firms reporting next week as the
third quarter reporting season is almost over. A total of 70 firms
are scheduled to report, including 8 of the S&P 500.
The firms reporting next week include:
Analog
Devices (ADI),
Campbell Soup (CPB),
Deere (DE),
Hewlett-Packard
(HPQ),
Medtronic (MDT) and
Tyson
Foods (TSN).
It will be effectively a short week, so all the data is jammed into
the first three days. There is enough to keep the markets busy
until everyone stops for turkey and football on Thursday.
The key reports start with existing home sales. On Tuesday we get
the second look at GDP growth in the third quarter. We will also
get the Fed minutes for the November 2 meeting. Things get very
busy on Wednesday as initial claims get pushed forward a day and we
get data on Personal Income and Spending, as well as new orders for
Durable Goods.
While the market will be open on Friday, there will be little
buying and selling going on at the corner of Broad and Wall -- the
focus will be on all the buying in the malls with Black Friday.
Europe does not share this holiday, so we will probably get more
drama from that side of the pond as well.
Monday
- In September, existing home sales ran at a 4.91 million annual
pace, down 3.0% from August. In October they are expected to slip
slightly further to a 4.85 million rate. Of at least equal concern
is the level of inventories available for sale relative to the
sales pace. In September there were 8.5 months of supply on the
market, well above the normal level of about 6 months. That
suggests continued downward pressure on existing home prices. As
sales of used homes are just the transfer of an existing asset,
they do not represent that much in the way of economic activity.
However, as the major store of wealth for the middle class,
existing home prices are vital. Also, the more prices fall, the
greater the number of people who are underwater on their mortgages,
and thus vulnerable to foreclosure.
Tuesday
- In the first look at GDP it was estimated that the economy grew
at a 2.5% pace, well above the 1.3% growth rate of the second
quarter and the nearly non-existent growth of just 0.4% in the
first quarter. The quality of the growth was also quite high as
that growth included a 1.08% drag from the change in inventories.
The overall growth rate is not expected to change, however the
quality of the growth probably improved even further, with a higher
contribution from net exports and consumer spending, but a bigger
drag from inventory investment.
- The Fed decided to do nothing at its 11/2/11 meeting. That
satisfied the three members who had objected in the previous two
meetings but spurred a new dissent from Charles Evans of Chicago.
The minutes to the meeting should provide clues as to why the Fed
decided to sit on its hands in the face of 9.0% unemployment when
it has a legal mandate to keep unemployment low.
Wednesday
- Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance come out a day
early. Recently they broke below the psychologically important
400,000 level. Last week they fell by 5,000 to 388,000, but only
after the previous week had been revised upward by 3,000, so it was
really more like a 2,000 decline. The consensus is looking for
391,000. The 400,000 level is important in that it has historically
been the inflection point below which we tend to create enough jobs
to bring down the unemployment rate. The week-to-week numbers can
be very volatile, so the four-week average is the thing to focus
on. Keep an eye on the prior week’s revision as well, as the change
from the revised number.
- Continuing Jobless Claims have been in a downtrend of late, but
the road down has been bumpy. Last week they fell by 57,000 to
3.608 million. That is down 662,000 from a year ago. I would expect
a small decline this week. The consensus is looking for a bounce to
3.620 million, a small increase. Federally paid extended claims
fell by 70,000 to 3.459 million last week and are down 1.468
million over the last year. Looking at just the regular continuing
claims numbers is a serious mistake. They only include a little
over half of the unemployed now, given the unprecedentedly high
duration of unemployment figures. A better measure is the total
number of people getting unemployment benefits -- currently at
6.773 million -- which is down 62,000 from last week (there are
some timing issues, so the change in continuing and existing claims
does not match the change in the total). The total number of people
getting benefits is now 2.076 million below year-ago levels. What
is not known is how many people have left the extended claims via
the road to prosperity -- finding a new job -- and how many have
left on the road to poverty, having simply exhausted even the
extended benefits. Unless the program is renewed, all extended
benefits will end in January. Make sure to look at both sets of
numbers! Many of the press reports will not, but we will here at
Zacks.
- New Orders for Durable Goods are expected to fall 1.0% in
October after falling 0.6% in September. Previous months are often
revised significantly for this data, and those revisions can be
just as important as the current month’s data. The weakness last
month came from the highly volatile transportation equipment
segment. Since they are so high priced, a few orders for jetliners
can really push around the total number, but the orders tend to be
lumpy. Excluding transportation equipment, new orders are expected
to be unchanged after being up 1.8% in September. Given the tone of
the other data. I will take the over on both headline and
ex-transportation.
- Personal Income is expected to rise 0.3% from September, after
it rose just 0.1% last month. Just as important as the total amount
of personal income is the source of that income. Recently, growth
in income from wages and salaries has been very weak, with most of
the growth we have seen coming from with rental income and higher
dividends. That suggests that most of the meager total income
growth is going to the top of the income distribution. Personal
Spending is expected to rise 0.3% after rising 0.6% in September.
Of course, if spending rises by more than income, the savings rate
will fall. In September, the savings rate fell to just 3.6% from an
already low 4.1% in August. Over the long term, the economy needs a
higher savings rate. Short-term, though, a falling savings rate
tends to boost the economy.
- The deadline for the “Super Committee” to come up with at least
$1.2 Trillion in deficit reduction is hit. I expect total failure
and deadlock. That means that we will get $1.2 Trillion in spending
cuts in a meat-cleaver fashion starting in 2013. Those cuts fall
roughly equally on Defense and non-defense discretionary spending.
While there is plenty of fat to cut, doing so in this way could
have adverse National Security implications. Nor are meat-cleaver
cuts to non-defense discretionary spending wise, particularly when
the economy is still soft. However, those are what we will probably
get. Look for Congress to spend much of 2012 figuring out how to
defuse the “trigger." Given the wide philosophical differences in
Washington these days, I also suspect that the efforts to defuse
the trigger will fail. The efforts will raise the political heat
level.
- The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index for
November is expected to match its initial read of 64.2. That is up
off the lows of the summer, but still very depressed by any
historical standard. Personally, I think this is one of the most
overrated economic statistics around, since what consumers say in
the survey is often very different that what they actually do.
Still, better seeing it go up than down.
Thursday
- Everyone eats lots of turkey, stuffing, mashed potatoes, etc.
then sits down and watches football and perhaps a parade. Happy
Thanksgiving to all, and I hope you have a tasty turkey.
Friday
- The stock market will be open, but traditionally it is the
lightest volume trading day of the year. Instead of buying and
selling on Wall Street the focus will be on the buying at the malls
on Black Friday, the traditional start of the Holiday shopping
season.
Given the very small number of firms reporting next week, there are
few good cadidates to make good predicitions of potential positive
or negative surprises and thus I omit this section this week.
In the Earnings Calendar below, $999.00 should be read as N.A.
If you want to follow me on Twitter, I am @DirkHvanDijk
Company |
Ticker |
Qtr End |
EPS Est |
Year Ago
EPS |
Last EPS
Surprise % |
Next EPS Report Date |
Time |
Daily Price |
ANALOG DEVICES |
ADI |
201110 |
0.63 |
0.73 |
-2.74 |
20111121 |
AMC |
$35.50 |
BROCADE COMM SY |
BRCD |
201110 |
0.06 |
0.08 |
0 |
20111121 |
AMC |
$4.70 |
BROWN SHOE CO |
BWS |
201110 |
0.51 |
0.45 |
-200 |
20111121 |
AMC |
$8.80 |
CHIMERA INVEST |
CIM |
201109 |
0.14 |
0.16 |
N/A |
20111121 |
AMC |
$2.68 |
CHINACACHE INTL |
CCIH |
201109 |
0.04 |
-0.69 |
-233.33 |
20111121 |
AMC |
$5.10 |
CHINAEDU CP-ADR |
CEDU |
201109 |
0.08 |
0.11 |
100 |
20111121 |
AMC |
$5.60 |
CNINSURE IN-ADR |
CISG |
201109 |
0.18 |
0.32 |
3.45 |
20111121 |
AMC |
$7.45 |
COLLECTIVE BRND |
PSS |
201110 |
0.51 |
0.75 |
45.45 |
20111121 |
AMC |
$13.53 |
DYCOM INDS |
DY |
201110 |
0.3 |
0.18 |
58.33 |
20111121 |
AMC |
$20.14 |
GALAXY GAMING |
GLXZ |
201109 |
0 |
999 |
N/A |
20111121 |
|
$0.21 |
GLOBUS MARITIME |
GLBS |
201109 |
0.15 |
999 |
166.67 |
20111121 |
BTO |
$4.14 |
GOLAR LNG PARTN |
GMLP |
201109 |
0.4 |
999 |
2.63 |
20111121 |
AMC |
$27.85 |
HASTING ENTMT |
HAST |
201110 |
-0.56 |
-0.35 |
-1466.67 |
20111121 |
BTO |
$1.90 |
HEWLETT PACKARD |
HPQ |
201110 |
1.13 |
1.33 |
0 |
20111121 |
AMC |
$27.29 |
JACK IN THE BOX |
JACK |
201109 |
0.41 |
0.4 |
-5 |
20111121 |
AMC |
$20.29 |
JINKOSOLAR HLDG |
JKS |
201109 |
0.44 |
1.75 |
30.94 |
20111121 |
AMC |
$6.19 |
MOBILE TELE-ADR |
MBT |
201109 |
0.29 |
0.5 |
-18.18 |
20111121 |
|
$13.85 |
NORTHWEST PIPE |
NWPX |
201109 |
0.44 |
0.07 |
147.83 |
20111121 |
AMC |
$23.47 |
PAC SUNWEAR CAL |
PSUN |
201110 |
-0.14 |
-0.07 |
25 |
20111121 |
AMC |
$1.29 |
PERFECT WORLD |
PWRD |
201109 |
0.63 |
0.6 |
61.4 |
20111121 |
AMC |
$12.30 |
PHOENIX NEW MED |
FENG |
201109 |
0.05 |
999 |
-2350 |
20111121 |
AMC |
$5.34 |
SHANGPHARMA-ADR |
SHP |
201109 |
0.18 |
0.22 |
-14.29 |
20111121 |
BTO |
$8.25 |
SHIP FIN INTL |
SFL |
201109 |
0.4 |
0.46 |
4.44 |
20111121 |
|
$14.45 |
TECH DATA CORP |
TECD |
201110 |
1.27 |
1.07 |
15.79 |
20111121 |
BTO |
$48.66 |
TRINA SOLAR LTD |
TSL |
201109 |
0.06 |
1.08 |
-63.04 |
20111121 |
AMC |
$6.54 |
TYSON FOODS A |
TSN |
201109 |
0.31 |
0.64 |
15 |
20111121 |
BTO |
$19.34 |
VALSPAR CORP |
VAL |
201110 |
0.7 |
0.56 |
0 |
20111121 |
|
$34.61 |
ZALE CORP NEW |
ZLC |
201110 |
-1.42 |
-1.59 |
8.93 |
20111121 |
AMC |
$3.47 |
AMER WOODMARK |
AMWD |
201110 |
-0.22 |
-0.52 |
-11.76 |
20111122 |
BTO |
$12.93 |
CAMPBELL SOUP |
CPB |
201110 |
0.8 |
0.82 |
16.22 |
20111122 |
BTO |
$33.41 |
CANADIAN SOLAR |
CSIQ |
201109 |
-0.51 |
0.47 |
-17.24 |
20111122 |
BTO |
$2.29 |
CHICOS FAS INC |
CHS |
201110 |
0.2 |
0.16 |
4.17 |
20111122 |
BTO |
$11.56 |
CHINA DIG TV |
STV |
201109 |
0.18 |
0.17 |
26.67 |
20111122 |
AMC |
$3.69 |
CHINA RE IN-ADR |
CRIC |
201109 |
0.1 |
0.07 |
-14.29 |
20111122 |
BTO |
$5.11 |
CHINA XINIYA FS |
XNY |
201109 |
0.21 |
999 |
25 |
20111122 |
BTO |
$1.58 |
CITI TRENDS INC |
CTRN |
201110 |
-0.37 |
-0.03 |
3.13 |
20111122 |
BTO |
$10.41 |
CRACKER BARREL |
CBRL |
201110 |
0.97 |
1.01 |
10 |
20111122 |
BTO |
$45.37 |
DAKTRONICS INC |
DAKT |
201110 |
0.13 |
0.17 |
-27.27 |
20111122 |
BTO |
$9.79 |
DELIAS INC |
DLIA |
201110 |
-0.1 |
-0.07 |
-7.69 |
20111122 |
BTO |
$1.37 |
DIANA CONTAINER |
DCIX |
201109 |
0.12 |
-0.01 |
-200 |
20111122 |
BTO |
$4.83 |
DSW INC CL-A |
DSW |
201110 |
0.8 |
0.79 |
25.81 |
20111122 |
BTO |
$44.71 |
EATON VANCE |
EV |
201110 |
0.43 |
0.41 |
4 |
20111122 |
BTO |
$23.54 |
E-HOUSE CHINA |
EJ |
201109 |
0.04 |
0.1 |
-25 |
20111122 |
BTO |
$6.81 |
FREDS INC |
FRED |
201110 |
0.22 |
0.2 |
-7.14 |
20111122 |
BTO |
$12.32 |
GENESCO INC |
GCO |
201110 |
0.95 |
0.77 |
120 |
20111122 |
BTO |
$57.78 |
GUESS INC |
GES |
201110 |
0.74 |
0.75 |
3.7 |
20111122 |
AMC |
$27.95 |
HANWHA SOLARONE |
HSOL |
201109 |
-0.05 |
0.69 |
-192.31 |
20111122 |
BTO |
$1.35 |
HORMEL FOODS CP |
HRL |
201110 |
0.42 |
0.45 |
2.86 |
20111122 |
BTO |
$29.28 |
JA SOLAR HOLDGS |
JASO |
201109 |
-0.02 |
0.5 |
-633.33 |
20111122 |
BTO |
$1.63 |
LA-Z-BOY INC |
LZB |
201110 |
0.14 |
0.07 |
-33.33 |
20111122 |
AMC |
$10.17 |
LDK SOLAR CO |
LDK |
201109 |
-0.36 |
0.72 |
-20 |
20111122 |
BTO |
$3.01 |
LE GAGA HLD-ADR |
GAGA |
201109 |
0.11 |
13.91 |
-7.69 |
20111122 |
BTO |
$4.39 |
LTX-CREDENCE CP |
LTXC |
201110 |
-0.07 |
0.43 |
-3.57 |
20111122 |
BTO |
$6.03 |
MEDTRONIC |
MDT |
201110 |
0.82 |
0.82 |
0 |
20111122 |
BTO |
$33.86 |
NUANCE COMM INC |
NUAN |
201109 |
0.3 |
0.24 |
4.35 |
20111122 |
AMC |
$24.61 |
PANDORA MEDIA |
P |
201110 |
0 |
999 |
0 |
20111122 |
AMC |
$12.26 |
PATTERSON COS |
PDCO |
201110 |
0.47 |
0.45 |
-6.67 |
20111122 |
BTO |
$29.39 |
QAD INC |
QADB |
201110 |
0.13 |
0.5 |
137.5 |
20111122 |
AMC |
$12.09 |
RAVEN INDS INC |
RAVN |
201110 |
0.63 |
0.63 |
33.33 |
20111122 |
BTO |
$61.28 |
SIGNET GRP PLC |
SIG |
201110 |
0.2 |
0.07 |
28.81 |
20111122 |
BTO |
$43.33 |
SOC QUIMICA MIN |
SQM |
201109 |
0.56 |
0.36 |
4.17 |
20111122 |
AMC |
$56.09 |
SUNTECH PWR HLD |
STP |
201109 |
-0.21 |
0.18 |
-218.75 |
20111122 |
BTO |
$2.40 |
TIVO INC |
TIVO |
201110 |
-0.23 |
-0.18 |
15 |
20111122 |
AMC |
$10.12 |
DEERE & CO |
DE |
201110 |
1.44 |
1.07 |
0.6 |
20111123 |
BTO |
$75.02 |
DIANA SHIPPING |
DSX |
201109 |
0.31 |
0.42 |
-2.86 |
20111123 |
BTO |
$7.94 |
HILLENBRAND INC |
HI |
201109 |
0.37 |
0.4 |
-2.56 |
20111123 |
AMC |
$21.00 |
NJ RESOURCES |
NJR |
201109 |
0.04 |
-0.03 |
4.55 |
20111123 |
BTO |
$47.27 |
PARTNER COMM |
PTNR |
201109 |
0.44 |
0.54 |
-35.59 |
20111123 |
BTO |
$10.07 |
RENESOLA LT-ADR |
SOL |
201109 |
-0.16 |
0.7 |
-66.67 |
20111123 |
BTO |
$1.77 |
YINGLI GREEN EN |
YGE |
201109 |
0.03 |
0.49 |
13.79 |
20111123 |
BTO |
$3.42 |
ANALOG DEVICES (ADI): Free Stock Analysis Report
CAMPBELL SOUP (CPB): Free Stock Analysis Report
DEERE & CO (DE): Free Stock Analysis Report
HEWLETT PACKARD (HPQ): Free Stock Analysis Report
MEDTRONIC (MDT): Free Stock Analysis Report
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