SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Quote

Russia coming to save Iran. SCO members.

Mon June16- BULLISH- OIl UP, GOLD UP, BITCOIN UP ---->> MARKET GREEN UP TOO!
Futures will try very hard to hold the market together till Trump's announcement on JULY 4th. re: tarif

ES & SPX 60 min Macd's Both xing below O Line ----Bearish Down There !!---VIX 60 min xing above 0 line also Bearish !!----TZA 13.24---+ .69----xover 0 line Weds !

Concur---ES & SPX 15 min now in Falling Channel --Verification ----Both rejected Thurs & Fri at upper T/L new Falling Channel----VIX closed 2nd Day not penetrating 15 min Red Line Downside----Bears Above/////Bulls Below !!

The best thing about all the bombing by Isreal.......
Is that..........no one now knows what to do.
.

Bearish divergent stochastics sell signal, I'm out of everything cept Tesla, war news not good

ES still in Diamond Apex---B/O R1 at 6030---see if they can bust thru & get back on track ??

Watch VIX---Now above 15 min Red Line & Pivot!----Bears Above//Bulls Below-----If VIX starts Stair Stepping up Pivots more Down !---2nd day above Pivot ----( Red Line 233EMA )----Old Fib at 19.39 LITS Rest of Day !!

Yes--Nice Bounce SPX 15 min Red Line and retake S1----now testing support S1 at 6017---got rejected at 5 min Red Line-----needs to retake 5 min Red Line & Pivot for Bullish !---Upper Falling T/l Ty Weds/Thurs Tops----Could Morph into Falling Channel----We'll See ??

Looks like many could did or could have had a great tradeable day w/ calls. Dipped below SPX S2--5989-- briefly in the first hour or so of trading, and now just crossed above S1 at 6017.

Charts: ES--8 Day 15 min Diamond Head & Shoulders Pattern--Right Shoulder B/Down at LOD 5927----B/Out 6030 & Fib at 6037 !---(Have to use a little artistry on this one---#'s look Good !! )

Pivot Calcs: SPX Pivot--6031-----R1--6059----S1--6017----S2--5989----S3--5947-----SPY Pivot--602----R1--605----S1--600----S2--597----S3--592-----ES Pivot--5978----R1--6030----S1--5901----S2--5849----S3--5720-----VIX Pivot--18.10 !!LOL!!

Good Post !

Check the CNN news. Israel is already doing their second wave of bombing of Iran. Trying to take out nuclear capability, some of their nuclear scientists, and regime! Bombs away, futures crash, oil up 7%!

Friday June 13, market looks like CALL should skyrocket to the moon, BULLISH

Bought calls and puts for tomorrow looks like calls are shot, but puts should sky rocket

Wow! My BCBS went up 14%, and they said a lot was due to covering fertility costs. Hah, I hope they have those kids so they can pay social security tax and work for the country! Ends up being almost $1k more a month!

Yeah, if they properly included this increased expense, it should hit in month of Jan to the CPI, for those staying w/ same company but at new higher annual premium rate.

Just got my new United Health Care Rate for Medicare Supp--Up 20%----But fear not inflation down to 3%----What a line of BS

I'm sure The Boys R in with this to sum extent also ---Blackrock & Such !!--Also Flight from Falling $ Value like U stated !!---It's turned into an H of a show !!

I can't disagree with that!

We are setting ourselves up for a shtf moment if we don't stop the government from spending.

Observation-----USD started a dive middle of May----SPY was 545---now 603 exactly opposite on the charts in comparison !!----Mainly thinking short term swing trading ! If not then where is all this buying originating ??

US bonds on longer end still being bought. Heard today's $21B or so 30 year auction when well! All because CPI and PPI have been lower than expected the past 2 months?? Best quality yield in the world? Even with weaker US $ at the moment?

FALLING DOLLAR MEANS WORLD PARTICIPENTS IN OUR STOCK MARKET ARE SELLING
THEIR US ASSESTS AND REPATRIATING THERE MONEY HOME !!!

SPX----Down to S1-----Then Rally & Retake Da Pivot Stair Step Up Again !! ( Continuation 9th Day Run)

Observations----Falling Dollar----World Capital flows to the Cheapest Currency Mkt-----Dollar Down Mkt Up---Most Bang for their Trade Currency Wise ---Maybe Mkts Heading into Hyperinflation Mode Also?----Platinum More Undervalued than Silver-----Up 43% from Low---20 X more rare than Gold----Targets Gold Price Plus ??

DOLLAR COLLAPSIING AND THE MARKET GOES UP ; FAKE MARKETS !!!

Downsize surprise in PPI by 0.1% Are you surprised?

Will be interesting to hear what Uncle Powell says next week after Fed meeting (.....just too much uncertainty, need more data points (already have 2 months of CPI/PPI dropping), labor markets look stable.....(huh???), etc..

The primary reason the US housing market is basically frozen is because rates are too high! No surprise!

Pivot Calcs: SPX Pivot--6028----R1--6054-----S1--5996-----SPY Pivot--602-----ES Pivot--6032-----VIX Pivot--17.16 !!LOL!!

Trump’s Fort Bragg speech was a serious step toward ending democracy - an article not written by me. Golly, there are people out there tht are as insane as i am.

Less than five months into his second term, Trump has gone much further to challenge the traditional separation of the military from partisan politics. This time, he chose an unqualified Fox News host to be defense secretary to ensure he would not face the resistance he met from Mattis and Esper. Then he fired multiple senior leaders of the military for being, well, Black or female. Just in the past few days, Trump deployed the Marines to Los Angeles in response to anti-ICE protests, even though there was no need for that escalation.

Then on Tuesday, Trump gave a virulently partisan speech at Fort Bragg, during which he egged on the troops to boo the Democrats serving as mayor of Los Angeles and governor of California. This speech, by itself, is incredibly damaging, as it projects the image of the military siding with the president against his political foes.
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He has setup the military as dedicated brute force against TRUMPs foes. Hired only loyalists at top level. But hey i must be losing it. Clearly this article is pure fiction. In 5 months time. Simply amazing.

With the age of computers and artificial intelligence, maybe the Vix is obsolete as Vix moved off of human emotion.But yes LOL for sure;)

CPI lower than estimated, futures green, and vix lower at 16.45! LOL. Feds still worried!!?? LOL!!

Last | 8:33 AM EDT
16.45
-0.50 (-2.95%)

Pivot Calcs: SPX Pivots--6027----R1--6054----S1--6011-----SPY--Pivot--601-----ES Pivot--6027-----VIX Pivot--17.21 !!LOL!!

Hegseth tells Congress his ‘war fighters’ are primed for ‘lethality’ ... as he sends them to face American protesters

I guess I must have read this article wrong. Let me check. Nope. I assume the 40plus % of TRUMP voters are ravenous for such action. Now had i stated the very words out of the Defense Secretary's mouth I would be cast as a lunatic. Since HE states it to the American People, he is a HERO himself. See how easy it is to become a fanatic.

Like the old EF Hutton commercials. The people LISTEN to TRUMP and cling to every word like an evangelic hearing the voice of GOD.

Oh the market. I still hold out to the outside chance we hit 6666 before July 4th. I hope the Insurrection Act isn't in before then. I hope war with TRUMPS Death Machine and the common man didn't start till after JUNE. I hope Trump shuts up on tariffs till end of JUNE. We are on auto pilot. Only a purposeful change of the switch will change the trajectory. never know with Trump. Maybe when they start jailing reporters or jailing politicians, even mayors and governors will the street take notice. NAH only kidding.

I would love for you all to come back to these posts say in 12 months from now and find a good laugh at your stable genius understanding of the immediate path we are on. me, I was the ONLY nut case that told this was not a possibility but a given based on the analytical skills of a common man looking at TRUMP for what and who he is. Frankly when he does stop the mid-term election you will be eased into it and feel that it is no biggie.

ReDoo-----SPX Retake R2 at 6033---ES Retake Fib at 6037 !----!!LOL!!

Recap---SPX Last 8 Days-----7 Stair Step Retakes & Advances off Pivots---1 Flat !!----!!LOL!!

VIX Quick Flip Back Down Fib at 16.69 ----SPX Retakes R2 at 6033 & Fib at 6037 to Finish the Session !!

Scalped Out 602P .61! Daily Double! Take It !!

Sell It Boy's !!

ES 3rd Test 6037----Rule of 3 ??

Waggin 602P .29! EOD ?

~sold the 6/12 $615 calls @.08cBought some 6/13 $620 calls @.04c

ES---Triangle B/O--Fib at 6037----Next Up Fib at 6087 !!

Biggest volatility crash in history*

I wonder what has been the 2nd largest crash

Biggest volatility crash in history*
"The 63% decline in the VIX over the last 9 weeks is the biggest volatility crash in history." (Bilello)
The spring 2020 post-COVID crash was the largest one prior to this (at 58%).*note that we are talking about a "9-week" period here. Volatility has of course crashed more if one extends the time period.

Historically, sharp rallies like this were bullish
The NASDAQ 100 is just -2% below its all-time high. It was down -20% just 2 months ago. Historically, sharp rallies like this were bullish.

Still clearly underweight
Equity positioning is still clearly underweight at 26th percentile.

Risk-parity did not get the rally memo
Risk-Parity portfolio weight in equity is at a single digit percentile weight. (LOL)

The overall systematic community
The chart shows the dollar amount of global equity index futures held by the systematic trading community. Current length measures as about 5-of-10.
Tony Pasquariello: "...spec positioning is much less of tailwind than it was six weeks ago, but is not yet a headwind"

Positioning remains balanced
John Marshall, GS derivatives trading: "Single stock put-call skew is in the middle of its 2-year range. This crowd-sourced metric shows that positioning is balanced; the equity market is likely to react normally to fundamental news in coming weeks rather than reacting with a skew in a particular direction."

Do we have nothing to fear but nothing to fear?
"That would represent much to fear, as fearless investors create meltups, which then become meltdowns. But in fact, the stock market's sentiment gauges are showing plenty of fear, which is bullish from a contrarian perspective."

Individual Investors are in a holding pattern
After buying equities for the first three months of 2025, individual “buy-and-hold” investors have stopped buying equities over the past two months.

Risk appetites levels consistent with a near term top
Data Trek shows how institutional investors are, believe it or not, quite bullish right now. The following chart shows State Street’s Institutional Investor Risk Appetite Index. The data is calculated using changes in portfolio positioning by State Street’s global custody clients. “Big Money” risk appetites have only recently turned positive, but these ended May at levels very near past term highs for the S&P 500.
Data Trek: "We recognize that risk appetites are verging on levels consistent with a near term top. This could certainly come later in June."

Almost as stretched as...
Valuation multiples are now almost as stretched as they were at the start of the year.

Reference: Marketear.com

Pivot Calcs: SPX Pivot--6006----R1--6019----6033-----S1--5992-----SPY Pivot--599-----ES Pivot--6013-----VIX Pivot--17.23 !!LOL!!

Market would be UPUP all week because..Trump's Birthday Parade Sat. June 14

Recap----Looks Like SPX gonna Stair Step Da Pivots for another Day! ---ES Deeper Into Apex !---Good Prop Job EOD !!--- !!LOL!!

Scalped Out 601P .88! Flippin ! Take It ---No Go----Another Prop Job !!

Waggin 601P .62? EOD? R1--Fade? 1 min Red Line Fade ?