Barclays Research takes stock of the effects of Russia’s war with Ukraine in the 2022 Equity Gilt Study
July 13 2022 - 3:00AM
Business Wire
Barclays Research today released the 67th edition of the Equity
Gilt Study (EGS), a flagship annual publication. Combining
market-leading macro analysis with a unique multi-asset dataset
spanning over 100 years, this year’s report takes stock of the
effects of Russia’s war with Ukraine.
Barclays’ Research analysts survey the future of the European
monetary union, arguing that Europe has often moved towards further
integration during crises, and the recent past is no exception. The
pandemic and the war in Ukraine have forced member states toward
more fiscal and political co-operation. This includes a common
diplomacy and defense policy, as well as a common energy
policy.
Barclays Research argues that fears about the US dollar losing
reserve currency status are greatly overstated. With the EMU still
not fully integrated fiscally and politically and with the Chinese
RMB only partially convertible, there are no good substitutes for
the US dollar. Instead, large exporters might try to reduce their
US current account surpluses by focusing more on regional trading
blocs, in an attempt to diversify their foreign reserves.
In parallel, Barclays’ analysts note that the war is leading
governments and corporations to re-examine the resilience of their
supply chains and other economic linkages. That could lead to at
least a partial reversal of the multi-decade trend of
globalization. Already, our analysts see evidence of a “reshoring”
of critical processes and infrastructure, and of multinational
companies hiring closer to home.
Finally, Barclays’ analysts consider the implications for the
macroeconomic environment, which, over the past three decades, has
benefited from a period of “Great Moderation”, characterized by a
relatively stable backdrop of growth, inflation, and monetary
policy. We think this may be changing, with significant
implications for macroeconomic stability.
“In this year’s Equity Gilt Study, Barclays’ analysts explore
how the war in Ukraine, coming on the heels of the pandemic, will
likely permanently re-shape the macro landscape,” says Ajay
Rajadhyaksha, Global Chairman of Research at Barclays. “The Equity
Gilt Study provides an indispensable tool to understand the themes
and trends affecting global economies and markets for years to
come.”
>>> Clients can gain access to the full EGS at Barclays
Live >>> To learn more about our Research offering and
view recent insights, click here
Notes for Editors
Since 1956 Barclays’ Equity Gilt Study has provided uniquely
rich data, analysis and commentary on long-term asset returns in
the UK and US. Data for the UK goes back to 1899, while the US
data, provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices at the
University of Chicago, runs from 1925.
About Barclays
Barclays is a British universal bank. We are diversified by
business, by different types of customer and client, and geography.
Our businesses include consumer banking and payments operations
around the world, as well as a top-tier, full service, global
corporate and investment bank, all of which are supported by our
service company which provides technology, operations and
functional services across the Barclays Group. For further
information about Barclays, please visit our website
home.barclays.
About Barclays Corporate and Investment Bank
Barclays is a consumer and wholesale bank, supporting
individuals and small businesses through our consumer banking
services, and larger businesses and institutions through our
corporate and investment banking services. Our Corporate and
Investment Bank is comprised of the Investment Banking,
International Corporate Banking, Global Markets and Research
businesses; it provides money managers, financial institutions,
governments, supranational organisations and corporate clients with
services and advice for their funding, financing, strategic and
risk management needs. For further information about Barclays
Corporate and Investment Bank, please visit our website
www.cib.barclays.
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Ann Thielke 212-526-1472 (US) ann.thielke@barclays.com
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