New Knight Ridder/MSNBC Poll Shows Narrow Bush Lead in Iowa, Oregon, Wisconsin - Key Swing States That Gore Won in 2000
September 20 2004 - 8:04PM
PR Newswire (US)
New Knight Ridder/MSNBC Poll Shows Narrow Bush Lead in Iowa,
Oregon, Wisconsin - Key Swing States That Gore Won in 2000 Kerry
Narrowly Leads Bush in Michigan and Pennsylvania - Battleground
States That Went for Gore in 2000 SAN JOSE, Calif. and SECAUCUS,
N.J., Sept. 20 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The latest results in a
new series of election surveys, conducted for MSNBC and Knight
Ridder by Mason-Dixon, has found that President Bush has a
six-point lead over John Kerry in Iowa and is leading narrowly in
two other key swing states that Al Gore carried in 2000 -- Oregon
and Wisconsin. The poll found that John Kerry has a six-point lead
over Bush in Michigan and a slim one-point lead in Pennsylvania --
both "blue" swing states that went for Gore in 2000. The first wave
of poll results announced Saturday, Sept. 18th revealed that
President Bush is leading in five of the key swing states he
carried in 2000 -- Missouri, Arizona, New Hampshire, Ohio and West
Virginia. The state in which Bush had the narrowest lead in the
poll was West Virginia, where the president led John Kerry by 1
point. The Knight Ridder/MSNBC survey of between 624 and 629 likely
voters in each of the 11 states was conducted by Mason-Dixon
Polling & Research on Sept. 11-16 and had an error margin of
plus or minus four percentage points. A 12th swing state, Florida,
which Bush won narrowly in 2000, couldn't be surveyed accurately
last week because of the disruption caused by three hurricanes.
Following are the poll's top-line results: VOTER PREFERENCE IA MI
OR PA WI Kerry-Edwards 42 47 43 45 44 Bush-Cheney 48 41 47 44 46
Nader-Camejo 2 2 1 1 1 Other 1 -- -- -- -- Undecided 7 10 9 10 9
BUSH APPROVAL RATING IA MI OR PA WI Approve 51 46 50 48 50
Disapprove 42 48 44 45 43 Undecided 7 6 6 7 7 The MSNBC/Knight
Ridder poll found that the president's overall approval rating
hovers at about 50% in Iowa, Oregon and Wisconsin, where he is
ahead, and just below 50% in Michigan and Pennsylvania, where he
trails. However, in none of these blue states polled -- which Gore
won in 2000 -- do a majority of likely voters believe the country
is on the "right track." The sentiment is most negative in Oregon,
Michigan and Pennsylvania, where 49%, 48% and 47%, respectively,
feel that the country is on the "wrong track." The Knight
Ridder/MSNBC poll also found that about seven in 10 of Bush's
supporters say they support him because they like him. About four
out of 10 Kerry supporters say they like him; another 30 percent
say they like him with reservation; and the remaining 30 percent
said they would vote for Kerry because they dislike the other
candidates. Economy main concern in blue states The MSNBC/Knight
Ridder poll also found that the economy is the dominant concern for
voters in these five swing states. Terrorism and homeland security
concerns tied for first in Iowa and were the second most important
issue in the other four states. Kerry has larger leads on more
issues -- in fact, he leads among those who say the economy or Iraq
is the top issue. The Democratic challenger also leads among voters
who said they care most about health-care and jobs. Voters weigh in
on military service, gay marriage, decision to go to war in Iraq
The Knight Ridder/MSNBC poll also proved likely voters' opinions on
a number of hot topics this election year: military service during
the Vietnam War, a ban on gay marriage and the decision to go to
war in Iraq. -- As in the "red" battleground states poll announced
Saturday, a solid majority in the "blue" states said they weren't
concerned about how each candidate served during the Vietnam War --
approximately 80 percent of voters in each state say it will not
influence their vote. However, where voters do indicate that
Vietnam service will be important, Kerry holds a slight advantage.
-- As in the "red" states, a clear majority of voters in all states
surveyed said they favor the ban on gay marriage. -- In Iowa and
Wisconsin, more voters approve of the decision to go to war in
Iraq. In Pennsylvania, voters are split. Overall in the states
polled, those approving of the decision are much more likely to
support Bush, while those disapproving are much more likely to
support Kerry. The results of the polls will be published in Knight
Ridder newspapers, aired on MSNBC and NBC News programs and will be
available on MSNBC.com and Knight Ridder Web sites, including
http://www.krwashington.com/ . Knight Ridder newspapers include The
Miami Herald, The Philadelphia Inquirer, Detroit Free Press, St.
Paul Pioneer Press, The Charlotte Observer, The Kansas City Star,
Akron Beacon Journal, Fort Worth Star-Telegram and San Jose Mercury
News. Survey Methodology The results are part of the first of three
series of swing state polls to be conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling
& Research. These polls measure voter favorability and voter
preference for top presidential candidates who appear on the 2004
general election state ballot in the key swing states that voted
for President Bush in the 2000 election. The polls included
questions aimed at exploring the issues that may determine how
undecided voters make up their minds. States included in the poll
are Iowa, Missouri (polling done in conjunction with St. Paul
Pioneer Press), Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The poll was
conducted between Sept.13 and Sept. 14, 2004. The margin of error
is +/-4 percent. About Knight Ridder Knight Ridder is the nation's
second-largest newspaper publisher, with products in print and
online. The company publishes 31 daily newspapers in 28 U.S.
markets, with a readership of 8.7 million daily and 12.6 million
Sunday. Knight Ridder also has investments in a variety of Internet
and technology companies and two newsprint companies. The company's
Internet operation, Knight Ridder Digital, develops and manages the
company's online properties. It is the founder and operator of Real
Cities (http://www.realcities.com/), the largest national network
of city and regional Web sites in more than 100 U.S. markets.
Knight Ridder and Knight Ridder Digital are headquartered in San
Jose, Calif. About MSNBC MSNBC is a joint venture between NBC
Universal, a leading provider of news and information, and
Microsoft, the leader in personal computer software and a major
provider of Internet online services. Built on the worldwide
resources of NBC News, MSNBC is a 24-hour cable news network and
Internet news service at msnbc.com. About Mason-Dixon Polling &
Research, Inc. Mason-Dixon is an independent polling firm that
conducts voter surveys for news media, advocacy groups, trade
associations and political action committees. Mason-Dixon is the
nation's most active state polling organization, conducting
copyrighted public opinion polls for news media organizations in
all 50 states. These media clients include over 250 local
television affiliates and over 100 daily newspapers. Since 1983,
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. has conducted surveys in
every state in the country, on almost every public issue, and
tracked every major election and referendum. DATASOURCE: Knight
Ridder CONTACT: Annalise Carol of Knight Ridder, +1-646-805-2023,
or ; or Jeremy Gaines of MSNBC, +1-201-583-5362, or Web site:
http://www.knightridder.com/
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