BOND REPORT: Treasury Yields Stabilize In Wake Of Yield-curve Inversion
March 25 2019 - 8:44AM
Dow Jones News
By Mark DeCambre, MarketWatch
U.S. Treasury rates steadied on Monday after last week's rally
in government bonds saw yields post their largest weekly slides of
2019. However, yields for government paper remained at or near
multimonth lows as Asian markets booked steep losses and U.S.
stocks looked set to slump.
Last week, buying in long-dated government bonds helped to
create a phenomenon in fixed-income markets referred to as a
yield-curve inversion
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-year-german-bond-yield-flirts-with-zero-after-lackluster-eurozone-pmis-2019-03-22)
-- seen as a reliable warning of a potential recession within a
year or two.
Read:The yield curve inverted -- here are 5 things investors
need to know
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-yield-curve-inverted-here-are-5-things-investors-need-to-know-2019-03-22)
Market participants have focused on the inversion which occurred
as the 10-year Treasury note yield last Friday fell as low as
2.42%, below the three-month T-bill yield at 2.455%. The yield
curve is a line plotting out yields across maturities; and
typically, it slopes upward, with investors demanding more
compensation to hold a note or bond for a longer period given the
risk of inflation and other uncertainties.
An inversion of the curve is generally viewed as a sign that
investors are worried about long-term economic growth.
See: S&P 500 could fall 40% as yield curve inverts, says
analyst
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-could-fall-40-as-yield-curve-inverts-says-analyst-of-one-of-2018s-best-hedge-fund-returns-2019-03-22)
Currently, the 3-month T-bill stands at 2.455%, according to
Tullet Prebon data.
On Monday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note added 0.2
basis point to 2.461%, after the benchmark posted a fresh 15-month
low on Friday.
The 2-year note yield edged up 0.3 basis point lower to 2.329%,
following its finish on Friday at around a 10-month low, while The
30-year bond yield picked up 1.4 basis points to 2.907%.
Bond prices rise as yields climb.
All three maturities logged their largest weekly yield decline
since at least Dec. 7, with the two-year note posting its sharpest
weekly slide since Nov. 16, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
The yield curve has been flattening for some time, and the rate
decline in recent trade deepened after weak eurozone economic data
pulled down yields on Friday. The 3-month/10-year version is the
most reliable signal of future recession, according to researchers
at the San Francisco Fed.
Concerns about growth helped to further drive demand for
longer-dated bonds, as stocks suffered one of their worst declines
of 2019.
On Monday, Asian stock benchmarks tracked Friday's Wall Street
losses. The Nikkei-225 index gave up 3%, while Europe stocks also
fell in early trading and U.S. stock-index futures fell.
"A decent size selloff in Asian equities as they traded off
2-3%. As result Treasury prices firmed in a 'risk-off' mode with
heavy volumes of 3-4 times normal," wrote Tom di Galoma, managing
director at Seaport Global Holdings, in a Monday research note.
Still, Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans, speaking
in Hong Kong on Monday, sounded relatively sanguine about U.S.
growth prospects
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-evans-downplays-recession-risks-for-the-us-economy-2019-03-25).
"Whenever the yield curve gets flat, we see growth decelerating
and, like I say, I'm looking for almost 2% growth this year. That
sounds kind of low but it's actually relative to trend of
one-and-three-quarters. It's a good growth rate," he said. Evans is
a voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee
this year.
However, former Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/yield-curve-may-be-indicating-increased-chance-for-rate-cut-but-not-a-recession-says-former-fed-chair-yellen-2019-03-25),
speaking at the same event hosted by Credit Suisse, said the
inversion may indicate the need to cut interest rates at some
point, though she also believed that it didn't assure a recession
would occur.
Meanwhile, investors were watching developments in the U.K., as
lawmakers enter another week of negotiations over Britain's planned
exit from the European Union and as Prime Minister Theresa May
faces fresh questions about her ability to remain in office.
Investors also have bought sovereign debt outside of the U.S.,
pushing the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds to negative
0.089%, around the lowest since August 2016. The German 10-year
bund yield , viewed as a proxy of investors view on the health of
Europe's economy, has also slipped into negative territory at
negative 0.009%.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 25, 2019 08:29 ET (12:29 GMT)
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