Anglo-American (AAUK) caused a stir in the market Monday by rejecting a takeover bid by Xstrata (XTA.LN), but speculation Brazilian mining heavyweight Vale (VALE) might step into the breach was decidedly premature.

Market talk suggested cash-rich Vale might even bid for Anglo-American.

"There's nothing concrete; it's just been some talk," said Banif Investmento mining analyst Gilberto Cardoso.

He also saw nothing doing with a possible Vale bid for Xstrata.

"I don't believe Vale has any interest in Xstrata anymore," he said.

Early last year, Vale made a bid to acquire Xstrata but the two sides failed to agree on terms.

Marcos Asuncao, Cardoso's counterpart at Banco Itau, also said he believed Vale was unlikely to acquire either company.

"I think Vale still has a lot of idle capacity to use up before it needs to buy other (iron ore) mining assets," he said.

Other market-watchers see possible dangers for Vale in the current situation.

An analyst report by Rio-based brokerage Ativa Corretora on Tuesday said Anglo's rejection of Xstrata was "potentially negative" for Vale.

The report argued the mining sector was clearly going through a new wave of consolidation.

Ativa cited merger moves between BHP Billiton (BHP) and Rio Tinto (RTP), the present Xstrata and Anglo affair, as well as deals between smaller players.

"The greatest consolidation opportunities are vanishing, and if the BHP-Rio Tinto deal is completed, and there's a possible new bid by Xstrata for Anglo, then these will be too big for a takeover by Vale," the report said.

The result could be Vale losing its relative strength compared to its competitors, the report reasoned.

Given this scenario, and Vale's need to diversify its portfolio and reduce its dependence on iron ore, Ativa said it might be good for Vale to restart talks with Xstrata or even between Vale and Anglo.

However, Ativa also noted a possible downside to Vale renewing its interest in other major mining companies.

"We must remember that, in the past, the market has punished Vale shares when it has made any acquisition moves," Ativa warned.

In mid-afternoon trading Tuesday, Vale's shares were up a tepid 0.03% at 34.58 Brazilian reals ($17.20). The benchmark Ibovespa stocks index was also up 0.03%.

-By John Kolodziejski, Dow Jones Newswires; 55-21-2586-6086; john.kolodziejski@dowjones.com