By Mike Cherney
SYDNEY -- Australia expects its Covid-19 vaccination campaign to
be delayed by months because of concerns over side effects from the
AstraZeneca PLC vaccine and supply-chain issues, in a setback that
threatens to extend its border closure and weigh on its economic
recovery.
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison initially said he
wanted four million people vaccinated against the coronavirus by
the end of March, though health officials later clarified they were
targeting four million doses. Mr. Morrison said Monday that
Australia has vaccinated only about 1.2 million people, or roughly
5% of the population. Government data show about 1.2 million doses
have been administered.
Officials previously said they would aim to vaccinate the entire
population by the end of October, but now aren't sure when that
might happen.
"Rather than set targets that can get knocked about by every to
and fro of international supply chains and other disruptions that
can occur, we're just getting on with it," Mr. Morrison said Monday
in a video posted to Facebook. Over the weekend, Mr. Morrison said
he now hoped Australians could get a first dose before the end of
the year, but he didn't commit to that date and said the government
wouldn't set a new target.
Australian officials were relying in large part on the
AstraZeneca vaccine because it can be produced locally. But they
have blamed the slow rollout on a delay in shipping AstraZeneca
vaccines from Europe, which was supposed to boost early vaccination
efforts as Australia ramped up its ability to make the vaccines
domestically.
The bet on AstraZeneca ran into further challenges last week
when Australia's drug regulator said the vaccine should be given
only to people age 50 and over because of the risk of rare but
sometimes deadly blood clotting. That forced Australian officials
to restrict the rollout of the vaccine, with other countries taking
similar steps.
Australia is also administering the Pfizer Inc. vaccine, but all
the Pfizer vaccines need to be imported and are also at risk of
shipping delays.
The revised timeline for the rollout means Australia's
international border, which has been shut to most visitors since
the pandemic began and has helped keep the country safe from the
virus, could remain closed for longer than expected.
Australian officials previously said the border could be closed
for the rest of the year, but an extended closure beyond that would
deal yet another blow to tourism businesses that are already
struggling and universities that relied heavily on international
students.
Australia's economic recovery has been stronger than many
forecasters expected, some economists say, driven in part by
effective containment of the coronavirus, interest-rate cuts and
large government stimulus. There are few coronavirus restrictions
in many Australian cities, given that there is virtually no
community transmission of the virus, with bars and restaurants
largely full and some offices open.
Still, Australian officials have briefly locked down some cities
in recent months to prevent small outbreaks from growing, so the
virus continues to pose an economic threat. A three-day lockdown in
Brisbane, Australia's third-largest city, just before the Easter
holiday forced many travelers to cancel their holiday plans.
Officials in Sydney locked down parts of the city around Christmas
because of an outbreak there.
Economists at Commonwealth Bank recently raised their 2021
growth forecasts to 4.7% from 4.4%, but the vaccination delay
increases the coronavirus-related risks to the forecast, said
Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at Commonwealth Bank.
"At the margin, the risk of Covid getting into the community
then is obviously a little bit higher," Mr. Aird said.
Even if Australia immediately increased the pace of its
vaccinations to match the U.K., where vaccinations are occurring at
the second-fastest rate globally, Australia would still need an
extra 116 days to reach herd immunity compared with earlier plans
of giving everyone at least one dose by the end of October,
according to an analysis from the McKell Institute, a progressive
think tank. It estimated that delay would cost the economy 1.4
billion Australian dollars, equivalent to $1.1 billion, because of
more lockdowns.
"I was surprised at the scale of the numbers, and I was also
surprised at how bad they got quickly based on the rollout," said
Michael Buckland, chief executive at the institute. "As the delays
start to accumulate, you start to get some very big blowouts in
costs."
Some 30% of visitors to Tropical Fruit World, a tourist
attraction in New South Wales state that includes tours of its
fruit farm, came from overseas before the pandemic, said Sales and
Marketing Manager Shona Fuller. She said some group bookings had
already come from international visitors for Christmas this year,
but she isn't now sure if those people will be able to visit, given
Australia's vaccine delay.
"It's really disappointing, to be honest," she said of the
delay. "Hopefully it all works itself out and we can start
traveling and we can get some international tourists back."
Australia was able to afford a slow start to its rollout because
the spread of the coronavirus was largely contained, but officials
should have used the extra time to ensure the rollout went
smoothly, said Dr. Stephen Duckett, health program director at the
Grattan Institute, a think tank based in Melbourne.
"We ended up with both a slow start and a stuffed-up rollout,"
Dr. Duckett said. "We got the worst of both worlds."
Write to Mike Cherney at mike.cherney@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 12, 2021 20:01 ET (00:01 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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