The Rise of Skywalker' Unlikely to Top Recent Star Wars Installments on Opening Weekend
December 18 2019 - 8:29AM
Dow Jones News
By Erich Schwartzel
LOS ANGELES -- The box-office Force is strong with "The Rise of
Skywalker" -- but not as strong as with previous Star Wars
movies.
The final installment of Walt Disney Co.'s most recent trilogy
of the space saga, which opens Thursday, is expected to make about
$200 million this weekend in the U.S. and Canada, according to
preliminary industry estimates. That is slightly less than its
immediate predecessor, "Star Wars: The Last Jedi," which made its
debut to $220 million in 2017, and further behind the 2015
installment, "The Force Awakens," which opened to a then-record
$248 million in 2015.
Predicting an opening as stratospheric as a Star Wars debut is
tricky, but "The Rise of Skywalker" is nonetheless expected to
dominate the holiday box office in the week between Christmas and
New Year's Day, when moviegoing hits its highest levels of the
year. Exhibitors are looking to make up lost ground in the final
days of a disappointing year. Ticket sales so far in 2019 are down
more than 5% from the same point in 2018. Other holiday releases
are expected to perform well, such as a new adaptation of "Little
Women" and the World War I epic "1917," but no other release is
expected to put up the same kind of numbers as "The Rise of
Skywalker."
Given the fan appetite for a new Star Wars movie, Disney is able
to claim about 65% of the value of ticket sales from theaters,
which many exhibitors called the highest proportion in Hollywood
and well above the 55% for most major releases.
As it has with other recent Star Wars movies, Disney is also
requiring theaters to screen "Skywalker" for four weeks, the
longest such "hold," which exhibitors said is longer than any other
franchise is able to command. That is a particular problem for
single-screen businesses in small towns where the entire customer
base usually turns out in a movie's first week or two. Some of
those smaller operators are forgoing "Skywalker," saying they fear
they will end up with nearly empty auditoriums in the latter part
of the movie's run.
The final installments of the two previous Star Wars trilogies
have landed in the middle when it came to domestic box-office
receipts. "Return of the Jedi" made $253 million in 1983 -- $54
million less than the 1977 original but $44 million more than 1980s
"The Empire Strikes Back." The third film of the prequel trilogy,
"Revenge of the Sith," from 2005, grossed $380 million, about $51
million less than the first prequel and $78 million more than the
second.
"The Rise of Skywalker" is closing out a trilogy that has had a
metabolism unprecedented in the franchise's history. Since
acquiring Lucasfilm Ltd. in 2012 for $4 billion, Disney has spaced
out installments in the trilogy by only two years -- versus
three-year intervals between movies in the earlier trilogies.
Disney increased the tempo further by releasing spinoffs "Rogue
One" and "Solo" between the films in its trilogy.
"The Rise of Skywalker" isn't the only big-budget Star Wars
property premiering in the past five weeks. Disney's "The
Mandalorian," a series on the company's new Disney+ streaming
service, has been embraced by fans but may have sucked up some of
the enthusiasm for "Rise of Skywalker."
Concerns about putting too much Star Wars into the marketplace
have prompted Disney to put the series on a "hiatus" following the
"Skywalker" release, Disney Chief Executive Robert Iger announced
earlier this year. The next Star Wars movie -- said to concern a
story line separate from the Skywalker characters -- is scheduled
for release in late 2022.
The storytelling challenge of "Skywalker" is daunting. Director
J.J. Abrams must not only wrap up the story line kicked off with
new characters in 2015's "The Force Awakens," but also bring a
conclusion to the narrative established with Luke Skywalker,
Princess Leia and Han Solo in the 1977 original. It must also bring
fans back on board who were alienated by "The Last Jedi," which
took the story line and characters in unexpected directions.
Reviews following the movie's premiere on Monday night in Los
Angeles were mixed. Mr. Abrams, who is known as a director whose
tastes often align with those of hard-core fans, inserted several
nods to the original trilogy in the new film -- during one
particularly nostalgic surprise cameo, one attendee at the premiere
yelled, "Yeah, J.J.!"
Write to Erich Schwartzel at erich.schwartzel@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 18, 2019 08:14 ET (13:14 GMT)
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