Toyota Maps Out a Shift to All-Alternative Cars
October 14 2015 - 2:40PM
Dow Jones News
TOKYO—Toyota Motor Corp. is plotting a road to near extinction
for its conventionally fueled cars as the industry grapples with
the fallout of Volkswagen AG's diesel-emissions scandal.
The world's best-selling auto maker said Wednesday that by 2050,
gas-electric hybrids, plug-in hybrids, fuel-cell cars and electric
vehicles will account for most of its global vehicle sales, without
giving a detailed breakdown.
That means gasoline- and diesel-engine powered cars, currently
accounting for roughly 85% of Toyota global vehicle sales, would be
near zero, Senior Managing Officer Kiyotaka Ise said.
"It wouldn't be easy for gasoline and diesel cars to survive,"
Mr. Ise told a media briefing in Tokyo. "With such massive decline
in engine-powered cars, it's like the world is turning upside down
and Toyota has to change its ways."
Toyota's vision highlights its bet on hybrids and fuel-cell
vehicles as pollution concerns grow and auto makers compete to
identify what could be the dominant next-generation technology to
power cars.
It also comes as the automotive industry grapples with meeting
tough emissions regulations and scrutinizes diesel technology after
Volkswagen admitted it cheated on certain emissions tests. This
week, the German auto maker said it is accelerating plans to
develop battery-driven and hybrid electric vehicles.
Toyota isn't quitting gasoline and diesel engines entirely. Some
regions will still have to rely on gasoline or diesel cars because
of limited infrastructure such as charging for electric or hydrogen
vehicles, Mr. Ise said. Also, hybrid vehicles like Toyota's Prius
carry conventional engines along with motors and batteries.
Such a massive shift in technology won't happen quickly. There
is widespread consensus in the industry that gasoline and diesel
vehicles will gradually be replaced by alternatively powered
vehicles, but consumers haven't adopted them on a large scale,
partly due to charging infrastructure hurdles.
Toyota, which has focused on hybrids, last year started selling
fuel-cell cars that run on hydrogen and emit only water from the
tailpipe. Fuel-cell cars, which can be charged in minutes and have
a longer driving range than electric vehicles, are more suited for
long-distance driving than electric cars, Toyota has said.
Toyota's Mirai fuel-cell car can run 312 miles with a full-tank
of hydrogen based on U.S. testing standards. Rival Nissan Motor
Co.'s Leaf electric car has an average range of 84 miles with a
fully charged battery, while U.S. startup Tesla Motors Inc.'s Model
S electric car has a range of 230-270 miles.
Nissan is betting on electric vehicles, while German auto makers
such as Volkswagen have been more focused on plug-in hybrids.
Yet for now, Toyota is still highly reliant on gasoline- and
diesel-powered cars. Last year, around 14% of Toyota's global sales
were hybrid vehicles, including plug-ins. Most of the remaining
sales were vehicles powered by gasoline and some diesel, though a
detailed breakdown wasn't available.
Toyota has posted record profits in recent years, partly thanks
to growing sales of profitable but gas-guzzling sport-utility
vehicles and pickup trucks in the U.S., backed by lower fuel
prices.
The vision to eliminate gasoline- and diesel-powered cars was a
part of Toyota's wider green car strategy unveiled Wednesday.
By 2020, Toyota aims to cut carbon-dioxide emissions from new
vehicles by more than 22% compared with its 2010 global average. It
ultimately hopes to take that to a 90% reduction by 2050, the auto
maker said.
To do so, Toyota plans to sell roughly 7 million gas-electric
hybrid vehicles world-wide over the next five years, it said.
Toyota has sold around 8 million hybrids since it started selling
them 18 years ago.
Toyota also plans to sell at least 30,000 fuel-cell vehicles a
year world-wide by around 2020, it said.
Write to Yoko Kubota at yoko.kubota@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 14, 2015 14:25 ET (18:25 GMT)
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