DALLAS, June 4, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's
California Economic Activity Index increased 0.2 percent in March
to a level of 123.8. March's reading is 26 points, or 27 percent,
above the index cyclical low of 97.8. The index averaged 124.0
points in 2018, 2.8 points above the average for all of 2017.
February's reading was 123.5.
Comerica Bank's California Economic Activity Index improved in
March, following four consecutive monthly declines through
February. The index components were mixed in March. Three of the
eight components were positive for the month. They included nonfarm
employment, housing starts and Dow Jones Technology Index. Four of
the eight components were negative including unemployment insurance
(inverted), house prices, state total trade and hotel occupancy.
Industrial electricity demand was unchanged. The California economy lost momentum in late 2018
according to our California Index. This was consistent with the
official state GDP data which showed California GDP moderated from
a 6.6 percent annualized rate in 2018Q2, to 1.2 percent in 2018Q3
and 2.2 percent in 2018Q4. Our index is indicating that
California may see only moderate
growth in early 2019 as well. Weaker housing data has weighed on
our California Index in recent months. Housing starts have declined
in nine of the last 12 months. House prices have also been mixed.
San Francisco and Los Angeles house prices improved in February
and March after sliding from November to January. San Diego house prices continued to see
losses. State labor market data has also been a little softer so
far this year. The pace of hiring remains positive, yet the tick up
in California's unemployment rate
raises a caution flag about the strength of the state's labor
market in 2019.
The California Economic Activity Index consists of eight
variables, as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing
claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price
index, industrial electricity sales, total trade, technology stock
index and hotel occupancy. All data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index
levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.
Comerica Bank, with locations in the key California markets of San Francisco and the East Bay, San Jose, Los
Angeles, Orange County,
San Diego, Fresno, Sacramento, Santa
Cruz/Monterey, and the
Inland Empire, is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:
CMA). Comerica is a financial services company headquartered in
Dallas, Texas, and strategically
aligned into three major business segments: the Business Bank, the
Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on
relationships and helping businesses and people be successful..
To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at
ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at
http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter:
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank