Forrester: Global Online Retail Sales To Grow 8.9% Annually, Reaching $6.8 Trillion In 2028
May 30 2024 - 9:00AM
Business Wire
Retailers’ investments in genAI, the rise of
online marketplaces, and higher digital literacy will continue to
drive global online retail sales growth
Forrester (Nasdaq: FORR) forecasts that total global online
retail sales will grow from $4.4 trillion in 2023 to $6.8 trillion
by 2028 at an 8.9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). According to
the report Global Retail E-Commerce Forecast, 2024 To 2028, which
provides a five-year forecast for total, online, and offline retail
sales for 40 countries globally, despite the growth in e-commerce,
76% (or $21.9 trillion) of global retail sales will still occur
offline in 2028. As a result, retailers must continue to invest in
omnichannel strategies that provide a seamless shopping experience,
both online and offline.
The report further states that retail e-commerce maturity varies
globally. Advanced economies including the US, the UK, and South
Korea are more mature due to higher internet penetration and
digital literacy. As smartphone adoption and mobile commerce become
more widespread, however, emerging markets in Asia Pacific, Eastern
Europe, and Latin America are catching up. This rapid adaptation is
transforming the global e-commerce landscape, presenting new
opportunities for businesses and consumers alike.
Looking ahead at 2024 and beyond, Forrester expects continued
growth momentum for online retail sales globally. Following are
some noteworthy highlights from the report, broken down by global
region.
The Americas:
- In the US, online retail sales are expected to reach $1.6
trillion by 2028, accounting for 28% of total US retail sales.
- E-commerce is more mature in the US compared to Canada, with
Canadian online retail sales expected to reach $83 billion by 2028.
Canada lags the US in e-commerce penetration due to lower
population density, a smaller market size, and slower consumer
adoption.
- In Latin America, online retail sales in the top six countries
— Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Peru, and Chile — will grow
from $109 billion in 2023 to $192 billion by 2028.
Europe:
- In Western European countries — including Austria, Belgium,
Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the
Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the
UK — online retail sales are expected to grow from $508 billion in
2023 to $773 billion in 2028, with online retail penetration
increasing from 15% to 20%. The UK will continue to be the biggest
market for retail e-commerce, followed by Germany, France, Italy,
and Spain.
- In Eastern Europe, online retail penetration is half that of
Western Europe. Forrester forecasts that online retail sales for
the top five Eastern European countries — Russia, Poland, the Czech
Republic, Romania, and Hungary — will increase from $72 billion in
2023 to $126 billion in 2028, with Russia and Poland leading the
region.
Asia -Pacific:
- In Asia -Pacific, online retail sales for the top five
countries — China, South Korea, Japan, India, and Australia — are
expected to increase from $2.2 trillion in 2023 to $3.2 trillion in
2028, with China leading the region. China and South Korea are the
top two countries globally in terms of e-commerce penetration and
will each have online retail penetration of more than 40% by
2028.
- In Southeast Asia’s top six countries — Indonesia, Thailand,
Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore — retail
e-commerce sales reached $93 billion in 2023 and will rise to $193
billion by 2028 to capture 17.4% of total retail sales. Indonesia
leads the region in online retail penetration, followed by Malaysia
and Singapore. The Philippines and Vietnam will see a CAGR of more
than 20% over the next five years, outpacing other countries in the
region.
“The growth of online marketplaces, social commerce, livestream
selling, and direct-to-consumer commerce will accelerate global
online retail sales growth over the next five years,” said Jitender
Miglani, principal forecast analyst at Forrester. “However,
e-commerce maturity and growth opportunities vary vastly by region.
Retailers and brands must therefore have a thorough understanding
of the key drivers of retail and e-commerce growth in their
priority markets and tailor their strategies appropriately, to
succeed.”
Resources:
- Read Forrester’s report, Global Retail E-Commerce Forecast,
2024 To 2028 (client access required).
- Learn more about Forrester’s Global Retail E-Commerce Forecast,
2024 To 2028, in this blog.
About Forrester
Forrester (Nasdaq: FORR) is one of the most influential research
and advisory firms in the world. We help leaders across technology,
customer experience, digital, marketing, sales, and product
functions use customer obsession to accelerate growth. Through
Forrester’s proprietary research, consulting, and events, leaders
from around the globe are empowered to be bold at work — to
navigate change and put their customers at the center of their
leadership, strategy, and operations. Our unique insights are
grounded in annual surveys of more than 700,000 consumers, business
leaders, and technology leaders worldwide; rigorous and objective
research methodologies, including Forrester Wave™ evaluations; more
than 100 million real-time feedback votes; and the shared wisdom of
our clients. To learn more, visit Forrester.com.
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Press contact Hannah Segvich hsegvich@forrester.com
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