By Ray Brindal 
 

CANBERRA--Caltex Australia Ltd. (CTX.AU) Thursday forecast a substantial rise in first-half profit, owing to better refinery reliability and buoyant demand for gasoline in resource-rich Australia.

Net profit for the six months to June 30 on a replacement-cost-of-sales operating basis--a closely watched measure that smoothes out oil price volatility--is expected to rise to A$185 million-A$205 million, from A$113 million a year earlier, Caltex said.

Shares in the refiner, 50%-owned by Chevron Corp., gained 3% in early trade in Sydney on the positive guidance. It's some rare good news for investors bracing for the possible closure of at least one of its two Australian refineries.

Caltex is reviewing the facilities amid a slump in regional refiner margins, made worse by the establishment of much larger facilities in Asia that can compete better on scale.

On an historic cost profit basis, which includes the value of its stockpiles, Caltex expects net profit of A$150 million- A$170 million, down from A$270 million.

Production of petrol, diesel and jet fuel is likely to be of the order of 5.2 billion liters for the latest period, up 11% on year, the company reported.

Caltex's refiner margin for the latest period in both U.S. dollars a barrel and Australian cents per liter is broadly in line with the values realised in the same period last year, it said in a statement.

The refiner margin in June is expected to average US$9/barrel, it said.

-Write to Ray Brindal at ray.brindal@wsj.com

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