Will the China Stimulus Boost Copper ETFs This Quarter? - ETF News And Commentary
April 09 2014 - 10:00AM
Zacks
Surprisingly, the recent Chile earthquake that resulted in a
tsunami did not leave a sustained impact on copper ETFs. Chile
accounts for nearly one-third of the world’s total copper output,
and as such, has a huge influence over the price of the red metal.
Chile’s government also owns and operates Codelco, the largest
copper producing company in the world.
Though Chile’s government has assured investors that the copper
mine was unscathed, many expected that any delay in production or
shipments might drive copper prices higher (read: Could a Possible
Rate Cut Be Good News for the Chile ETF?).
However, copper ETFs gained modestly soon after the earthquake last
week only to nosedive the next day, proving investors wrong.
Notably, the red metal saw double-digit losses in the first two and
half months of this year mainly on China growth concerns. Nearly
one-fourth of all Chilean exports are shipped to China, making
copper highly vulnerable to the world’s second largest economy.
Prior to the Chilean earthquake, copper prices sprung back from the
3-1/2 year lows in mid March on news of China adding fuel to its
economy to trigger growth. Copper was battered in the beginning of
this year after China divulged waning manufacturing numbers three
month in a row with the latest plunging to an eight-month low level
(read: Copper ETFs Tumble on China Growth Concerns).
Quite understandably, a manufacturing slowdown in the world’s
biggest buyer of industrial metals led copper prices to tumble 11%
in Q1, the deepest since 2011. To lift some clouds over the
economy, China has now planned a stimulus package mainly targeted
at railways and other construction investment. Efforts to perk up
construction projects have in turn spread enthusiasm on copper
investing, encouraging some to believe that copper may turn around
in Q2.
Though Copper futures for May delivery fell in recent trading on
fears of reduced U.S. demand emanating from lower-than-expected job
growth data, investors still may have some hopes on this metal
space thanks to the Chinese mini stimulus.
While investing in futures is definitely an option, investors might
watch exchange traded product choices as well as these represent
simple ways for the average investor to cycle into the copper
market (see all the Industrial Metal ETFs here):
iPath Dow Jones UBS Copper ETN
(JJC)
This ETN offers investors exposure to front month copper futures
tracking the Dow Jones UBS Copper Index. The note has over $90
million of assets under management, while its expense ratio comes
in at 75 basis points a year.
Though the product is easily the most popular, investors should
also note that, as an ETN, JJC carries with it the credit from of
Barclays, though an ETN will have no tracking error.
Global X Copper Miners ETF
(COPX)
This ETF represents an equity option for copper investors, tracking
the Solactive Global Copper Miners Index. This benchmark holds 25
stocks in its basket, while it charges investors 65 basis points a
year in fees for the exposure.
The ETF has a definite skew toward smaller securities as large caps
account for just one-third of the total.
First Trust ISE Global Copper Index Fund
(CU)
This copper mining ETF follows the ISE Global Copper Index for
exposure, tracking 25 companies across the globe. The fund uses an
equal weight methodology, giving roughly the same weight to each
security in the portfolio, while it charges investors 70 basis
points a year in fees for the exposure (see all the materials ETFs
here).
Large caps account for roughly two-fifths of assets in this fund,
followed by about one-third in mid cap stocks.
What Lies Ahead?
Though a China stimulus is a positive for the metal, the road ahead
is expected to remain bumpy. Analysts normally have a mixed view on
the metal’s future. While there are some solid drivers like
increased construction activities in the U.S., some emerging
markets are falling short on the growth front.
Amid such a backdrop, China’s fiscal stimulus will likely prove a
boon to this industrial metal, even if Chile exports and an
expected short-term disruption in the shipping industry fail
to sustain optimism around the red metal in the near term (read:
China A-Shares ETFs Explained).
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GLBL-X COPPER (COPX): ETF Research Reports
FT-ISE GLBL COP (CU): ETF Research Reports
IPATH-DJ-A COPR (JJC): ETF Research Reports
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