Treasury Expands Mortgage Data, But More Is Needed - Traders
October 16 2009 - 1:46PM
Dow Jones News
The Treasury has added detail to its monthly report on purchases
of mortgage bonds by foreign investors, but it doesn't go far
enough, market participants say.
Since September, the Treasury Department has released the total
purchases and sales of mortgage bonds guaranteed by Fannie Mae
(FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) by this group of key investors.
While this is a change from its previous practice of lumping
together all of the mortgage bond and debt securities under the
label "agency securities," it still doesn't provide the level of
clarity the market seeks.
"We would like to see numbers by country," said Art Frank,
mortgage strategist with Deutsche Bank.
Frank said the Treasury started providing this additional detail
in the September report after persistent requests from market
participants. But a lack of detail on the countries where buyers
reside and the types of bonds purchased - whether issued Ginnie Mae
or Fannie and Freddie bonds - makes the change less noteworthy.
The request for more detailed information comes at a time when
the market is preparing for the Federal Reserve to gradually exit
from its role as the dominant buyer of these bonds. In that
context, participants have tried to determine potential future
buyers who can at least partially make up the Fed's share of the
market.
Foreign investors, especially Asian central banks and sovereign
funds, used to hoard large quantities of mortgage bonds before the
credit crunch. However, since 2008, these investors have turned
sellers instead of buyers.
The latest data, for instance, showed that foreign investors
sold $41.7 billion in July, the most recent month for which data
are available. That is quite a bit less than the $51.5 billion sold
in June.
While this is a positive sign, it is offset by news that
overseas buyers bought only $53 billion of mortgage bonds in July,
one-fifth lower than the previous month's tally of $66.4
billion.
In any case, the lack of clarity on whether these purchases were
of Fannie and Freddie guaranteed bonds, or Ginnie bonds, frustrates
market participants.
It's a useful breakdown of numbers, since anecdotally
participants believe that foreign investors are hoarding up on
Ginnie bonds, but selling their Fannie and Freddie holdings.
-By Prabha Natarajan, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2468;
prabha.natarajan@dowjones.com