Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) Quote

You need to digest this sentiment right after the audit report. The next $CVNA hands down.

Funny you asked, that was one of our discussion this morning too. Yes, I am ready. Have two trading accounts E Trade and Schwab, disliked Schwab till now, they said you can trade on Think and Swim, but soon the whole platform will have overnight trading.

Are you set up for 24 hour trading at Schwab?...

saw it mentioned that they started

it on a board somewhere...

so we watch...LJ

This week is the perfect storm to release the audit report to confirm there was no discrepancy in the number, but just governance issues at the helm vs Ernst and Young. This week after the audit report is clean as whistle and forward looking statements for fiscal 2026, plus $NVDA earnings report and if they guide higher for this fiscal year would be great recipe for a Perfect Storm.

It's everything in the mix, the share structure was 50-60 million, it went up 100% that one day on 114 million volume on that good report, which equates to 1.14 billion volume today, it makes sense. I think after the report this will have minimum 500 million volume barring no discrepancy on the numbers and it would hit 70 dollars assuming it closes above 50 dollars before the audit report. Soon we will find out, only a day or two left for the truth. If anyone that thinks this will be sell the news, they are in for a big surprise when they see this play exactly like $CVNA. You also have to consider, the higher this goes everyday, the shorts will need to cover for their margin calls, the higher it goes the more margin calls. Everyone should stay put after the audit report and let this marinate and slowly creep up.

I’ve never been in a stock that seemed on the verge of explosion and actually did explode at the expected time. On the other hand, this stock did go from $28 to $66+ in about a week or a little more. That’s kind of an explosion but not a short squeeze type folks are hoping (or hyping!) for.

If they release the financials and the stock is $58.50, or $64, by the end of the week I’ll be satisfied we’re on the way.

I confess I don’t understand how there can be so much volume if there is really only less than 100 million tradable shares and 97 million short, unless there’s a ton of large traders doing millions of share each day.

What I can tell you based on what I read on Yahoo message board for this specific stock, there was a poster that made a reference that this stock had 1.14 Billion shares traded early last year, not sure which month he was talking about it and SMCI surprised the market with great earnings report and the stock doubled in price, might have been March of last year (lost track of that post). He was just doing a technical analysis, but I fully believe he was not aware of the forward split. Essentially this stock before the split did 114 million in volume on that day alone before the 1 for 10 forward split. This stock at this juncture is just being traded, of course there is some naked shorts in the mix too, someone with 2 million dollars can easily make 200,000 in single day if there is momentum behind it, I have done it a few times when there was opportunity with momentum stocks. This will not get a squeeze everyone is looking for to make a quick buck out of weekly calls options, this will play out similar to $CVNA overtime. Anyone gambling on the weekly calls, is just gambling, the best approach is buy the leap a year out and wait.

I had a conference call with Schwab with a friend (Vinnie) this morning. The broker said SMCI has to file by 4 PM on the 25th, if they don't file by the deadline, they have 7 days to appeal to Nasdaq, both the stock and the options will continue to trade on Nasdaq pending the appeals decision for 7 days.

I have to think BDO also has a lot a ridding on the reporting as well. Reputation is important.

I don't think they would have taken the accounting role, if they would not be successful.

One mans opinion, we'll see on the 25th

Likely answer is a lot of naked shorts. Those will be forced to cover at a high price after financials hit, because the institutions and larger retail will hold out. Might get a bit rowdy🙂 Over a billion shares traded Monday and Tuesday?

Almost 800 million shares traded over four days last week. There were 338 million on Wednesday alone.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/short-sellers-are-closing-in-on-some-shocking-tech-stocks/ar-AA1zA5CI?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=ENTPSP&cvid=1b98f75f335a454b974b0b871c7747ca&ei=7
The question: at what point will the longs part with their shares needed by shorts to cover? My $75 estimate for end of next week with financials filed might be way low.

Does the math on this share count seem even remotely possible? I read that “institutional” ownership includes hedge funds. Are they not trading?

In any case, even if the shares available to trade were double the estimate it still leaves a small number to account for all the volume we’ve seen. If there are nakeds then some folks are in big trouble. One day last week the volume was 250 million as I recall. That would account for lots of in and outs. Then there are the calls.

He who hesitates is lost, early next week, once they file the audit report, there will be no hesitation and total annihilation, it will be relentless of buying power.

Memphis. Vini, Vidi, Vici.

https://www.businessinsider.com/xai-elon-musk-x-new-atlanta-data-center-2025-2

Once they file, game over. The truth will be out early next week.

bears hate getting squeezed on SMCI...

https://media.stocktwits-cdn.com/api/3/media/2155705/default.png

https://stocktwits.com/plungerrrrrr/message/605354700

who ya gonna call if 10K is filed?...

...short busters...


so we watch...LJ

Big difference from those scammers that wanted and easy way out than Charles Liang, but yes SMCI has the burden of proof to be vindicated.

https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/analysis/28-years-later-supermicros-wild-ride/

SMCI delivers the audit report early next week, it will play out similar to $CVNA, they just need to deliver on their promise and get this behind them and fully execute on their plans. The rest will be his-story, Dario, Webslinger and anyone else in the mix, they will be gone for good. Believe me, if they don't deliver on their promise, I will be gone too.

Good chance they will surprise the market next week, but I think guidance will be the key and based on what SMCI alluded to conservatively 40 billion for fiscal 2026, which starts July 1st, I think guidance will be phenomenal with $NVDA.

One has to make educated decisions based on available public information. Yes, the whole thing could be a fraud. But really, what are the odds of that? Yes, they might not file. But, come on, is that likely? Yes, 20’ sea levels could hit Manhattan in ten years, if we don’t do something now.
Wait, that was already a missed call and didn’t happen.

Some common sense will help those who might have some doubt. Invest wisely.

That is a very common (and poor) argument.

All one has to do is look at history...

Sam Bankman Fried / FTX
Elizabeth Holmes / Theranos
Bernie Madoff
Bernie Ebbers / Worldcom
Ken Lay / Enron
Dennis Kozlowski / Tyco
Trevor Milton / Nikola
etc
etc
etc

We will find out in a few days whether $SMCI will be filing.

And so we watch....

What is everyone's opinion on NVDA's results on the 26th? I recognize this is an SMCI board but IMO NVDA's results will significantly impact SMCI. Your thoughts on this?

Just need an ounce of brain with some common sense.

Bears are working overtime this weekend to sow doubt, much like the parking lot of SMCI headquarters was full yesterday at 5PM yesterday on Friday late afternoon. Here is response from an astute investors replying to bearish post. I love this guy.

"You are not "maybe" wrong. You are absolutely wrong. If he lied,
-CFO would have spoken up. He did not. He confirmed it.
- BDO would have come out the next day and rebuffed him.
-SMCI's legal department would have distanced themselves.
-He would have subjected the company to shareholder lawsuits.
-Note holders of the 700M loan would have backed out.
- numerous other reasons....

You are an absolutely uninformed person with little knowledge of even the most basic law, how corporate governance works or even common sense.
If you are short, you are 100% toast. Book it.
In order for some to eat, some have to be eaten."

Excellent!

The moment of truth is early next week, the burden of proof is on SMCI and I feel and "Believe" that they will deliver on the audit report next week. Two big hurdles to go through next week, Audit Report and no discrepancy on the numbers on the previous quarters as reported by Cooley with their 50 plus attorney's verifying that there was no misconduct or fraud or no restatement was done on behalf of management. This will moon to 80-90 dollars within days after the report. So We Watch. It is all about what you "Believe". When the report comes out then investors and traders if they "Believe" they will welcome the news with open arms and will buy the stock with both arms with hand over fist.

SMCI should benefit from increased spending in

Ai sector to build data centers in

the calendar year 2025...

Build out of data centers is like a foot

race for big tech companies because

it takes time...

SMCI gave out the new numbers to expect

in 10K filing in the 02/11/2025 update pr...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/supermicro-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-210500794.html

Click on story continues for recent adjusted

numbers presented by company...

About nine months of work behind that...


so we watch...LJ

Here is another great puzzle by a someone who is putting it together and understands. "Fundamental Change"

Not a big difference, just a big difference to you.

8/29/24 Original 10-k due date..EY had been already working on it for months gathering all the data and numbers…this should have reduced BDO’s eventual work load by some fraction…

8/30/24 SMCI files 12b-25 requesting extension…EY continues to work on K-10 for 2 more months

10/24/24 EY quits…no one working on K-10…attorneys and forensic accountants reviewing docs on behalf of special comerty

11/18/24 BDO hired…reviewed all that needs to be done and gives estimated of time extension needed

12/6/24 SCE grants extension after having 4 months to review request and reasons

2/11/25 CEO states publicly during unnecessary Business Update that he is confident that, given what they know as of that date, they will be filing the K-10 on time.

That statement was made 2 weeks ago…after having several months to work on the 10-K…unless the CEO can establish that “unexpected” has happened in the last 2 weeks, he is bound by that comment..his fiduciary duty would expose him to liability…
Bullish

Well said.

This will fly so hard next week once the audit report comes in and it was not altered, it will make your head spin.

All I will tell you is, cut out the noise from flippers and either believe management or don't believe management. Posters on IHUB have no control over price actions .

Well. What's more believable?

That SMCI has PLANNED all along to not file? That they said to themselves "Hey! Let's go through all the trouble of hiring a new auditor, let's take the time to form a plan about how we intend to refile and submit it to the SEC and Nasdaq. Then we can just not file and screw them all, PLUS screw ourselves! That'll be FUN!"

Or - that they always intended to - and WILL - file on the specified date.

The 180-day agreement SPECIFIES the EXACT date they need to file by. Seems like some of you need constant hand holding and assurances by the company that it will happen as they agreed. NEWS FLASH. They don't have to do that.

Some of you boys need to take a pill.

SMCI back in 2018, warned investors 3 days before that they won't make the timing on the audit report, I have zero doubt that they won't make the deadline this time around, it all depends on if the numbers were altered and if they were not altered this will see 80-90 dollars within a few days.

Price prediction for end of week (2/28/25) if financials filed timely with no major surprises: $75. Price prediction for end of week if financials not filed: $30. I feel that the financials will be filed timely, with no major surprises. Institutional players have bought it in large amounts and management has publicly stated they'll file on time, on this I base my opinion.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jim-cramer-super-micro-computer-165742560.html

I don't know. Weird as it is.

What info did he get to change his tune

against delinquent filing companies?...

so we watch...LJ

What is with Cramer now, changing his tune?

SEC only halts stocks if they believe there is a scam involved or if a stock runs hard and they are delinquent in filings. I was in a stock back in 2015 bought at 14 dollars during trading hours for 2000 shares, former SPAC, Special Purpose Acquisition, a Shell, it ran as high as $102 dollars and closed at that price too, with just a little over a million shares traded, 200,000 float, next morning it was suspended from Nasdaq and it started to trade in the OTC 30 days later the bid was 48 dollars, sold at $42 and got out very lucky. Was calling company in Finland to see what took place, they were delinquent with missing paperwork that SEC has overlooked, only because of the run, it took them to see what was taking place. It is now in the grey market HUNTF, though it traded in the OTC for a while with nominal trade volume. SEC can never motivate a company by halting the trades, the company insiders have to motivate themselves if they want to stay listed and abide by the rules

https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/HUNTF/overview

Agree or disagree, everyone has their own opinion. Nothing matters at this stage, whether economy is bad or good, at the end of the day the only thing that matters is the audit report. So We Watch.

Exactly…”Folks out shopping aren't the ones

answering surveys on confidence...”

Business TV shows sell either fear or elation. Recently it’s fear.

Economy is fine where it is warm enough

for folks to get out...improving soon...

Folks out shopping aren't the ones

answering surveys on confidence...

Bigger money that likes to sell puts had

nice premiums to reap for next week...

Ain't Nothing cheap about weekly calls or

puts in SMCI and rarely has been...

Always a way for the big money to

nibble for a little extra...


so we watch...LJ

How many large caps are THIS late? The SEC form 12b-25 was filed 2024-11-13. Time's up.

See you all on Wednesday, if I see something of importance, I will post for inquiring minds. Peace out and good luck.