By Nick Godt
With the third-quarter earnings season just about to kick off,
the market is looking to some sectors, such as financials, where
revenue growth might actually improve.
In the previous quarter, investors were satisfied with seeing
improvement in firms' net income, the so-called bottom line, which
was mostly the result of heavy cost-cutting to adapt to a slumping
global economy.
"Companies have undergone a fantastic run of cost-cutting which
will surely benefit the bottom line to a larger than normal degree
when top-line growth returns," said Dan Greenhaus, chief economist
strategist at Miller Tabak, in a note.
"Given the improvement in the economy as well as the equity
market, perhaps a wealth- effect flow-through, this could very well
be the quarter in which revenue growth returns," he said.
Financials, which suffered the brunt of the credit crisis of the
past two years, might among the sectors where surprises start to
emerge.
On Monday, Goldman Sachs upgraded its view of large banks,
highlighting an improvement in Wells Fargo's (WFC) capital position
as well as its takeover of Wachovia Corp. Goldman also added
Capital One (COF) to its conviction buy list, saying it expects a
positive revenue surprise from the bank, citing moderating consumer
credit problems.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) gained 70 points, or
0.7%, to 9,557. The S&P 500 index (SPX) rose 10 points, or 1%,
to 1,036, while the Nasdaq Composite (RIXF) gained 21 points, or
1%, to 2,069.
The overseas play
The market slumped last week as concerns about the U.S. economy
resurfaced after several weak reports, especially a
worse-than-expected September jobs survey.
"It all boils down to earnings," said Ed Yardeni, chief
investment strategist at Yardeni Research, in written comments.
"Can they recover even if employment remains weak?"
Yardeni believes that to be the case. "U.S. companies are
scrambling to decouple from the U.S. economy, and are finding more
revenues and earnings overseas, especially among emerging
economies," he said.
"Furthermore, even a subpar recovery in domestic revenues could
morph into significant earnings growth given all the cost cutting
that has been going on during the recession," Yardeni said.