MCY Mercury General Corp

LOS ANGELES, Feb. 11, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Mercury General Corporation (NYSE: MCY) reported today the fourth quarter and fiscal 2024 results:

The California Department of insurance ("DOI") approved a 12% rate increase on the California homeowners line of insurance business in January 2025. This rate increase is expected to become effective in March 2025. The California homeowners line of insurance business represented approximately 16% of the Company's total net premiums earned in 2024.

The Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.3175 per share. The dividend will be paid on March 27, 2025 to shareholders of record on March 13, 2025.

Information Regarding January 2025 California Wildfires

In January 2025, extreme wind-driven wildfires caused widespread damage across parts of Southern California, primarily in the communities of Pacific Palisades and Altadena. The wildfires are known as the Palisades and Eaton fires (collectively, the "Wildfires"). The Company is currently estimating gross catastrophe losses from the Wildfires before its share of FAIR plan losses in the range of $1.6 billion to $2.0 billion and net catastrophe losses before taxes in the range of $155 million to $325 million. The range in net catastrophe losses from the Wildfires is primarily based on the size of the gross loss, subrogation recoverability for the Eaton fire, and whether we choose to have the Wildfires be one or two events, as discussed in more detail below. These estimates are based on information known to date informed by historical claims settlement information from previous major wildfires to calculate estimated gross ultimate losses. Due to the scope of the recent Wildfires, the estimates may change as more information becomes available. The Company estimates that approximately 55% - 60% of the losses are from Palisades and 40% - 45% are from Eaton. The Company expects its underlying first quarter 2025 results, which exclude catastrophe losses, to partially offset the net catastrophe losses from the Wildfires.

The Company's catastrophe reinsurance program provides $1,290 million of limits on a per occurrence basis after covered catastrophe losses exceed the Company's retention of $150 million. The Company also has up to $20 million of coverage on a property excess of loss reinsurance treaty available to offset losses exceeding $5 million per property that attaches prior to the catastrophe limits, and the Company expects to use approximately $10 million to $20 million of those limits for wildfire claims. On the catastrophe reinsurance program, one percent of the reinsurance limit of the $650 million xs $650 million coverage layer was placed as parametric coverage that pays out based on industry insured values in pre-determined grids within the fire footprint and the Company's participation percentage within that grid.  The Company has determined that this portion of the reinsurance will not be eligible for recovery, and as such, $6.5 million of the $1,290 million of total limits does not qualify for the Eaton or Palisades fires.

The Company is engaged with legal counsel in the pursuit of subrogation, particularly on the Eaton fire. In several previous wildfire events caused by utility company equipment, we sold our subrogation rights, but we have not determined whether we will do so with the Eaton event.

The Company is a member of the California FAIR plan, a quasi-governmental fire insurer of last-resort, and, to the extent FAIR plan has losses exceeding its Capital and Reinsurance coverage, the FAIR plan can assess its member companies for the shortfall apportioned out based on each company's California market share. The FAIR plan had significant losses from the Wildfires, however the actual amount is not yet known. The Company's reinsurance allows for the Company's share of FAIR plan catastrophe losses to be included as reinsured losses. In addition, the California DOI allows for recoupment of a portion of the FAIR plan assessments via a surcharge to policyholders. Between the coverage afforded by reinsurance and the ability to recoup a portion of the assessment, the Company does not expect the FAIR plan assessment to materially add to the net wildfire losses from these events.

Catastrophe losses from the Wildfires, net of applicable reinsurance benefits, and if applicable, subrogation, will be recorded as part of losses and loss adjustment expenses in the Company's consolidated statements of operations for the three-month period ending March 31, 2025. To the extent that losses are reinsured, the reinsurance program calls for reinstatements of limits to cover future events. If the full $1,290 million limits are used up, then the total reinstatement premium would be $101 million. Reinstatement premiums will be charged evenly over the first and second quarters of 2025.

The Company's catastrophe reinsurance treaty allows for the combining of events that occur within a 150-mile radius as a single occurrence. Additionally, if each individual event is classified as its own catastrophic event by the Property Claims Service ("PCS"), a unit of the Insurance Services Office, each event can be considered a separate occurrence. In the case of the Palisades and Eaton wildfires, the PCS has designated each as a separate event. The Company has not yet determined if it will consider the Wildfires as two separate events. As more information becomes available to the Company, including any subrogation potential, the Company will evaluate whether it will consider the Wildfires as two separate events.

Under a single-occurrence scenario, the Company will retain the first $150 million in losses and up to $6.5 million of losses for parametric coverage not eligible for reinsurance coverage. Gross losses in excess of $1,440 million ($150 million retention plus $1,290 million reinsurance limit), if any, will be retained by the Company. In addition, the Company is responsible for up to $101 million in reinstatement premiums. Under a two-event scenario, the Company may elect to use reinsurance limits of up to $1,290 million for the first event and reinstated limits up to $1,238 million for the second event. In this scenario, the Company would be responsible for the first and second event retentions of $150 million each, up to $6.5 million of losses for parametric coverage not eligible for reinsurance coverage for the first event and co-participation in losses for the second event equal to 8% of losses in excess of $650 million up to $1,300 million. In addition, the Company would be responsible for up to $101 million in reinstatement premiums. The Company may seek to acquire additional reinsurance if reinstated limits are used by the second event, for the stub period ending on June 30, 2025, the expiration date of the current contract.

As of February 7, 2025, the Company has paid out $800 million related to the Wildfires, primarily for contents, dwelling limits and living expenses.  The Company has sent an initial billing to our reinsurers and has collected $500 million to date. The Company has over $1 billion in Cash and Short-term investments on-hand, sufficient liquidity to handle the increased demand for cash. The Company does not expect the impact from this event to result in any defaults under our revolving credit debt covenants. 

After the Wildfires, Fitch and Moody's placed the Company's ratings under negative outlook, with Fitch affirming the Company's financial strength rating of A- and Senior Debt Rating at BBB-, and Moody's downgrading the financial strength rating from A2 to A3 and Senior Debt rating from Baa2 to Baa3. The negative outlook from both agencies generally reflects the uncertainty around future reinsurance costs, potential for additional significant catastrophe events and the condition of the overall California homeowners insurance market. 

The Company is currently reassessing its view of California wildfire risk, which will factor in the recent wildfires and related updates to catastrophe models, availability and pricing of reinsurance, ability to obtain rates in a timely and sufficient manner to support writing homeowners business, risk acceptability for individual risks and risk tolerance for concentrations of risk.

The Company has supplied wildfire data that was requested by the California DOI. We expect there will continue to be requests for data. The California DOI has also issued a moratorium that requires companies to renew homeowners policies for a two-year period within the affected areas. The Company is complying with the data requests and moratorium.

The Company will also host a conference call on February 12, 2025 to discuss these wildfires and its reinsurance program as well as its results of operations.  

Mercury General Corporation and its subsidiaries are a multiple line insurance organization offering predominantly personal automobile and homeowners insurance through a network of independent producers and direct-to-consumer sales in many states. For more information, visit the Company's website at www.mercuryinsurance.com.

The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a "safe harbor" for certain forward-looking statements. Certain statements contained in this report are forward-looking statements based on the Company's current expectations and beliefs concerning future developments and their potential effects on the Company. There can be no assurance that future developments affecting the Company will be those anticipated by the Company. Actual results may differ from those projected in the forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements involve significant risks and uncertainties (some of which are beyond the control of the Company) and are subject to change based upon various factors, including but not limited to the following risks and uncertainties: changes in the demand for the Company's insurance products, inflation and general economic conditions, including general market risks associated with the Company's investment portfolio; the accuracy and adequacy of the Company's pricing methodologies; catastrophes in the markets served by the Company; uncertainties related to estimates, assumptions and projections generally; the possibility that actual loss experience may vary adversely from the actuarial estimates made to determine the Company's loss reserves in general; the Company's ability to obtain and the timing of the approval of premium rate changes for insurance policies issued in states where the Company operates; legislation adverse to the automobile insurance industry or business generally that may be enacted in the states where the Company operates; the Company's success in managing its business in non-California states; the presence of competitors with greater financial resources and the impact of competitive pricing and marketing efforts; the Company's ability to successfully allocate the resources used in the states with reduced or exited operations to its operations in other states; changes in driving patterns and loss trends; acts of war and terrorist activities; pandemics, epidemics, widespread health emergencies, or outbreaks of infectious diseases; court decisions and trends in litigation and health care and auto repair costs; and legal, cyber security, regulatory and litigation risks. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as the result of new information, future events or otherwise. For a more detailed discussion of some of the foregoing risks and uncertainties, see the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Information Regarding GAAP and Non-GAAP Measures

The Company has presented information within this document containing operating measures which in management's opinion provide investors with useful, industry specific information to help them evaluate, and perform meaningful comparisons of, the Company's performance, but that may not be presented in accordance with GAAP. These measures are not intended to replace, and should be read in conjunction with, the GAAP financial results.

Net income (loss) is the GAAP measure that is most directly comparable to operating income (loss). Operating income (loss) is net income (loss) excluding realized investment gains and losses, net of tax. Operating income (loss) is used by management along with the other components of net income (loss) to assess the Company's performance. Management uses operating income (loss) as an important measure to evaluate the results of the Company's insurance business. Management believes that operating income (loss) provides investors with a valuable measure of the Company's ongoing performance as it reveals trends in the Company's insurance business that may be obscured by the effect of net realized investment gains and losses. Realized investment gains and losses may vary significantly between periods and are generally driven by external economic developments such as capital market conditions. Accordingly, operating income (loss) highlights the results from ongoing operations and the underlying profitability of the Company's core insurance business. Operating income (loss), which is provided as supplemental information and should not be considered as a substitute for net income (loss), does not reflect the overall profitability of the Company's business. It should be read in conjunction with the GAAP financial results. See "Supplemental Schedules" above for a reconciliation of net income (loss) to operating income (loss).

Net premiums earned, the most directly comparable GAAP measure to net premiums written, represents the portion of premiums written that is recognized as revenue in the financial statements for the periods presented and earned on a pro-rata basis over the term of the policies. Net premiums written is a statutory financial measure which represents the premiums charged on policies issued during a fiscal period less any applicable reinsurance.  Net premiums written is designed to determine production levels and is meant as supplemental information and not intended to replace net premiums earned. Such information should be read in conjunction with the GAAP financial results. See "Supplemental Schedules" above for a reconciliation of net premiums earned to net premiums written.

Incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses is the most directly comparable GAAP measure to paid losses and loss adjustment expenses. Paid losses and loss adjustment expenses excludes the effects of changes in the loss reserve accounts. Paid losses and loss adjustment expenses is provided as supplemental information and is not intended to replace incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses. It should be read in conjunction with the GAAP financial results. See "Supplemental Schedules" above for a reconciliation of incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses to paid losses and loss adjustment expenses.

Combined ratio is the most directly comparable measure to combined ratio-accident period basis. Combined ratio-accident period basis is computed as the difference between two GAAP operating ratios: the combined ratio and prior accident periods' loss development ratio. Management believes that combined ratio-accident period basis is useful to investors and it is used to reveal the trends in the Company's results of operations that may be obscured by development on prior accident periods' loss reserves. Combined ratio-accident period basis is meant as supplemental information and is not intended to replace the GAAP combined ratio. It should be read in conjunction with the GAAP financial results. See "Supplemental Schedules" above for a reconciliation of GAAP combined ratio to combined ratio-accident period basis. 

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SOURCE Mercury General Corporation