U.S. Economic & Credit Outlook
The U.S. economy proved remarkably resilient in 2023 as it weathered higher interest rates and avoided a widely predicted recession. While fourth-quarter data is not yet available, Gross Domestic Product after inflation (real GDP) is expected to have grown about 2.6% in 2023 (Q4/Q4). That compares to just 0.7% in 2022, and it easily outpaced economists’ consensus forecast from a year ago for near-zero growth in 2023. Admittedly, we were among those expecting a mild recession in 2023. While we think it is too soon to conclude that the U.S. economy will escape recession entirely given uncertain lags in monetary policy, the odds of a soft landing have improved considerably. If a recession does arrive, we continue to expect a mild one.
Nonfarm payroll employment expanded solidly in 2023, posting an average monthly gain of 232,000 jobs over 11 months ending in November. The unemployment rate remained low, but higher labor participation helped slow growth in average hourly earnings to 4% YoY in November, about 1% lower than a year ago. Moreover, labor productivity surged, reducing unit labor cost and helping restrain inflation. More jobs, higher wages, and lower inflation drove sizable gains in real personal income in 2023.
Consumers responded by increasing spending, partly at the expense of saving. Real personal consumption expenditure (PCE) rose by 2.7% over 12 months ending in November, up from 0.9% a year earlier. Goods spending gave way to services spending as remaining COVID restrictions ended, which supported strong growth in services employment and allowed global supply chains for goods to catch up with demand. The saving rate rose slightly but remains below pre-pandemic levels, and it appears that excess savings accumulated in 2020-2021 have been largely spent. A low saving rate raises risk of a rapid pullback in spending should employment start to weaken.
Real residential investment rose in 3Q2023, but it remains down more than 19% from its peak in 1Q2021. As mortgage rates soared from under 3% in early 2021 to over 8% in October 2023 (they ended the year around 7%), housing affordability got crushed. New and existing home sales fell from over 7 million in 2021 to just 4.4 million units (annualized) in November, not far from the lows during the 2008-2009 housing bust. However, in a reversal from 2022’s drop in home prices, the Case-Shiller 20-city home price index is up almost 6% in 2023 through October. If interest rates fall further, home sales should rebound and prices could move considerably higher, which might reignite inflation in the second half of 2024.
Business investment was mixed in 2023. After a strong start, real business equipment spending slipped in Q3, and Q4 appears soft as well. In contrast, real investment in business structures surged in 2023 as manufacturers constructed facilities to “re-shore” production from overseas and took advantage of incentives authorized in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 (CHIPS). While structures investment should remain elevated, its pace of growth has already slowed substantially. Overall, we expect only modest growth in business investment in 2024.
Government consumption accelerated in 2023 on higher defense spending and faster payroll growth at state and local governments. Through the first three quarters of 2024, real government consumption rose by an average of 4.5%, outpacing overall GDP. With a presidential election coming in November and Congress narrowly divided, major new spending legislation appears unlikely until 2025, and we expect slower growth in government spending in 2024.
Nonetheless, the federal government continues to run large deficits (about 6.3% of GDP in fiscal year 2023) that must be financed with ever-increasing Treasury bill, note, and bond sales. An aging population, low birth rate, volatile immigration situation, and rising defense vulnerabilities—among other fiscal challenges—leave the current path of U.S. federal debt both unsustainable and without easy solutions. While this is not news, we think it will keep risk premiums above their pre-pandemic levels for some time.
Inflation slowed significantly in the second half of 2023. The PCE deflator excluding food and energy was up 3.2% over 12 months ending in November, compared to 5.5% a year earlier, and it was up just 1.9% over the past six months, in line with the Fed’s 2% target. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is running 0.8-1.0% higher, but it too has been falling. There are many reasons why inflation has slowed, but we think chief among them are higher labor participation, stronger productivity growth, rapidly normalizing supply chains, waning fiscal stimulus, shrinking money supply, and, of course, significantly tighter monetary policy. While the first three supply-side factors may have further to run, we may already have reaped much of the inflation benefit from them. Likewise, the downturn in money supply started to reverse in mid-2023, and with the Fed contemplating a pivot in 2024, monetary policy could soon turn less restrictive.