TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts New Car Auto Sales Up Slightly for February 2020 with Used Auto Sales up 6%
February 26 2020 - 9:00AM
TrueCar, the most efficient online platform to find a car, (NASDAQ:
TRUE) and its data and analytics subsidiary, ALG, project total new
vehicle sales will reach 1,373,516 units in February 2020, up 0.2%
from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total
light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.1 million units. Excluding
fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and
light trucks to be 1,081,996 units, an increase of 1.2% from a year
ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
“Although consumer confidence is stable and economic
fundamentals remain strong, consumers are still receiving a lot of
mixed messages about the economy,” said Eric Lyman, Chief
Industry Analyst at ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “The fact
that we’re in an election year, the Coronavirus is starting to have
a global impact and that we’re beyond the normal cycle for a
recession all combine to create a sense of uncertainty.”
February 2020 is a leap year and we’re highlighting a few brands
that have leaped forward in the past four years:
- Mainstream brands Kia and Hyundai have come a long way with
elevated lineups. Both brands were previously associated with
value-driven cars and now have progressed in the mainstream space
with their upscale SUVs, the Hyundai Palisade and Kia Telluride.
Both vehicles are successful SUVs on the TrueCar platform with the
Kia Telluride winning ALG’s 2020 Design Innovation Award.
- Subaru has made great strides in the past four years with a
measured approach to production that limited over-production. They
have also benefited from consumer demand moving towards the styling
and functionality that their products historically provide. On the
TrueCar platform, Subaru’s inventory is up 34% and the Crosstrek is
the #1 selling subcompact SUV since January.
- In the luxury segment, Volvo has proven itself as a prominent
player over the past four years. With a cohesive lineup of premium,
design forward vehicles, Volvo is back at the top of the
consideration list for luxury brand consumers.
Additional Insights: (Forecast by ALG)
- Among mainstream brands, Kia and Hyundai are continuing their
momentum with increased sales this month. Kia is up 14.3% and
Hyundai is up 11.6% respectively year-over-year for total
sales.
- Subaru is up 3.3% year-over-year for total sales, likely due to
the increased inventory to match elevated consumer demand,
especially for their popular Outback and Forester SUVs.
- BMW’s continues its 12-month positive sales streak and is
expected to be up 9.3% year-over-year in total sales and up 6.5% on
retail sales with incentives down by 2.2%.
- Ford, Nissan and GM are forecasted to be down 6.7%, 14.4% and
1.8%, respectively, in total unit sales compared to a year ago. All
three manufacturers are down on fleet unit sales
year-over-year.
- Used vehicle sales for February 2020 are expected to
reach 3,699,048, up 6% from a year ago and up 12% from January
2020.
- The average interest rates on new vehicle loans is 6.21%, based
on TrueCar data.
“Low interest rates on vehicle auto loans and mild winter
weather thus far are contributing to a healthy sales month,” said
Nick Woolard, Director of OEM and Affinity Partner Analytics at
TrueCar. “We continue to see growth driven by new products,
especially in the utility and crossover segments.”
February 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers
by volume: (Adjusted for same selling days as February
2019.) For additional data visit the ALG
Newsroom.
Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer |
Feb 2020 Forecast |
Feb 2019 Actual |
Jan 2020 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
BMW |
31,214 |
26,367 |
21,607 |
18.4% |
9.3% |
44.5% |
38.9% |
Daimler |
27,825 |
24,447 |
25,187 |
13.8% |
5.1% |
10.5% |
6.2% |
FCA |
174,564 |
162,036 |
135,662 |
7.7% |
-0.6% |
28.7% |
23.7% |
Ford |
186,854 |
184,811 |
170,983 |
1.1% |
-6.7% |
9.3% |
5.1% |
GM |
222,475 |
209,020 |
235,141 |
6.4% |
-1.8% |
-5.4% |
-9.0% |
Honda |
127,751 |
115,139 |
101,567 |
11.0% |
2.4% |
25.8% |
20.9% |
Hyundai |
56,982 |
47,140 |
44,013 |
20.9% |
11.6% |
29.5% |
24.5% |
Kia |
53,752 |
43,406 |
40,261 |
23.8% |
14.3% |
33.5% |
28.4% |
Nissan |
105,993 |
114,342 |
79,795 |
-7.3% |
-14.4% |
32.8% |
27.7% |
Subaru |
54,951 |
49,081 |
46,284 |
12.0% |
3.3% |
18.7% |
14.2% |
Tesla |
18,197 |
15,400 |
22,350 |
18.2% |
9.1% |
-18.6% |
-21.7% |
Toyota |
198,485 |
172,748 |
166,063 |
14.9% |
6.1% |
19.5% |
14.9% |
Volkswagen Group |
50,498 |
44,445 |
45,059 |
13.6% |
4.9% |
12.1% |
7.8% |
Industry |
1,373,516 |
1,265,094 |
1,184,381 |
8.6% |
0.2% |
16.0% |
11.5% |
Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer |
Feb 2020 Forecast |
Feb 2019 Actual |
Jan 2020 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
BMW |
29,488 |
25,548 |
20,254 |
15.4% |
6.5% |
45.6% |
40.0% |
Daimler |
25,313 |
23,274 |
22,903 |
8.8% |
0.4% |
10.5% |
6.3% |
FCA |
114,923 |
120,169 |
105,414 |
-4.4% |
-11.7% |
9.0% |
4.8% |
Ford |
131,509 |
124,095 |
114,875 |
6.0% |
-2.2% |
14.5% |
10.1% |
GM |
162,649 |
142,169 |
175,402 |
14.4% |
5.6% |
-7.3% |
-10.8% |
Honda |
123,424 |
114,262 |
99,014 |
8.0% |
-0.3% |
24.7% |
19.9% |
Hyundai |
42,021 |
35,266 |
31,898 |
19.2% |
10.0% |
31.7% |
26.7% |
Kia |
43,107 |
32,996 |
33,731 |
30.6% |
20.6% |
27.8% |
22.9% |
Nissan |
72,723 |
75,655 |
58,960 |
-3.9% |
-11.3% |
23.3% |
18.6% |
Subaru |
51,474 |
46,335 |
43,767 |
11.1% |
2.5% |
17.6% |
13.1% |
Tesla |
18,197 |
15,400 |
22,350 |
18.2% |
9.1% |
-18.6% |
-21.7% |
Toyota |
169,471 |
146,823 |
144,455 |
15.4% |
6.5% |
17.3% |
12.8% |
Volkswagen Group |
44,859 |
40,237 |
40,505 |
11.5% |
2.9% |
10.8% |
6.5% |
Industry |
1,081,996 |
987,380 |
957,329 |
9.6% |
1.2% |
13.0% |
8.7% |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis
of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of
TrueCar Inc.’s operations.)
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that
enables car buyers to connect to our network of 16,500 Certified
Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and
efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the
purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will
find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market
context on new and used cars -- all with a clear view of what's a
great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them
to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief
that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great
car buying experience. As part of our
marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over
250 leading brands, including USAA, Sam’s Club, and American
Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage
with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and
drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa
Monica, California, with offices in Austin,
Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and
follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media
line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) |
Email: pr@truecar.com
About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California,
ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value
projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing
nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG
provides auto industry and financial services clients with market
industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle
portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned
subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that
provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people
paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for
all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in
Canada since 1981.
TrueCar and ALG PR Contact:
Shadee Malekafzali
shadee@truecar.com
424.258.8694
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