The median U.S. housing payment has dropped to
nearly $250 below its springtime peak as mortgage rates decline.
While Redfin agents are reporting a modest uptick in touring,
pending home sales fell 5% year over year.
(NASDAQ: RDFN) — The typical buyer’s housing payment was $2,588
during the four weeks ending August 11, nearly $250 below April’s
all-time high and up just 1% year over year–the smallest increase
in five years. That’s according to a new report from Redfin
(redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
There are also a few other encouraging signs for today’s buyers:
The total number of homes for sale is up nearly 20% year over year,
and a growing share of inventory is growing stale, allowing some
buyers the chance to negotiate. Additionally, less than 30% of
homes are selling above list price, down from 35% a year ago.
Despite declining costs and improving inventory, pending home
sales have yet to improve: Pending sales are down 5.1% year over
year, the biggest decline since November (except the prior 4-week
period, when there was a 6.2% decline). There are several reasons
buyers aren’t jumping at the chance to take advantage of falling
mortgage rates. Although home prices have come down from their July
peak, they’re still near record highs. Additionally, some
prospective buyers are sitting on the sidelines because of economic
and political uncertainty around the presidential election, whether
mortgage rates will fall more and whether the U.S. is going to
enter an official recession.
There are a few signs that more house hunters are starting the
homebuying process. Mortgage-purchase applications are up 3% week
over week on a seasonally adjusted basis. And Redfin’s Homebuyer
Demand Index–a measure of requests for tours and other buying
services from Redfin agents–is down 10% year over year, but that’s
the smallest decline since April.
“I was hoping more buyers would emerge when mortgage rates
started declining. And while house hunting has picked up a bit, the
increase isn’t all that significant,” said Brynn Rea, a Redfin
Premier agent in Spokane, WA. “Budgets are typically the most
important factor for buyers, and homes are still really expensive
for a lot of people. A lot of buyers are waiting to see if mortgage
rates fall more if and when the Fed cuts interest rates, and to see
what happens with the economy and the election later in the
year.”
This week’s CPI report shows that inflation continues to soften,
reinforcing the expectation the Fed will start cutting interest
rates in September, though it’s unclear by how much. Markets have
priced in expectations of aggressive rate cuts. If the Fed doesn’t
match those expectations, rates could rise a bit, but if they cut
as quickly as markets are hoping–or even faster–mortgage rates have
more room to fall. And if falling rates drive up demand, that could
push up home prices.
For more on Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market,
please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Indicators of homebuying demand and
activity
Value (if applicable)
Recent change
Year-over-year change
Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage
rate
6.49% (Aug. 14)
Near lowest level since spring 2023, but
up from low of 6.34% about a week earlier
Down from 7.24%
Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage
rate
6.47% (week ending Aug. 8)
Lowest level in over a year; down from
7.22% in early May
Down from 6.96%
Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications
(seasonally adjusted)
Increased 2% from a week earlier (as of
week ending Aug. 9)
Down 8%
Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index
(seasonally adjusted)
Essentially unchanged from a month earlier
(as of week ending Aug. 11)
Down 10%
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure
of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin
agents
Touring activity
Up 10% from the start of the year (as of
Aug. 11)
At this time last year, it was up 7% from
the start of 2023
ShowingTime, a home touring technology
company
Google searches for “home for
sale”
Up 11% from a month earlier (as of Aug.
12)
Down 3%
Google Trends
Key housing-market data
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending
August 11, 2024
Redfin’s national metrics include data
from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or
sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back
through 2015. Subject to revision.
Four weeks ending August 11,
2024
Year-over-year change
Notes
Median sale price
$389,250
3.4%
Up slightly from a week earlier, but
$6,750 below all-time high set during the 4 weeks ending July 7
Median asking price
$398,248
5.9%
Biggest increase since Oct. 2022
Median monthly mortgage payment
$2,588 at a 6.47% mortgage
rate
0.7%
Lowest level since Feb.; $244 below
all-time high set during the 4 weeks ending April 28
Pending sales
82,160
-5.1%
Biggest decline since Nov. 2023, except
the prior 4-week period, when there was a 6.2% decline
New listings
92,476
4.5%
Active listings
1,005,700
18.9%
Months of supply
3.6
+0.7 pts.
4 to 5 months of supply is considered
balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market
conditions.
Share of homes off market in two
weeks
37.1%
Down from 43%
Median days on market
35
+6 days
Share of homes sold above list
price
29.6%
Down from 35%
Share of homes with a price
drop
7%
+1.8 pts.
Near highest level on record
Average sale-to-list price
ratio
99.3%
-0.5 pts.
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks
ending August 11, 2024
Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50
most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time
to time to ensure data accuracy.
Metros with biggest year-over-year
increases
Metros with biggest year-over-year
decreases
Notes
Median sale price
Philadelphia (12.5%)
Detroit (12.4%)
Anaheim, CA (11.2%)
Newark, NJ (10.3%)
New Brunswick, NJ (10.1%)
Austin, TX (-3%)
Tampa, FL (-1.3%)
San Antonio, TX (-1.3%)
Declined in 3 metros
Pending sales
Cincinnati (10.4%)
Sacramento, CA (10.2%)
Los Angeles (7.5%)
San Jose, CA (6.8%)
Montgomery County, PA (5.3%)
Houston (-20.6%)
Atlanta (-17.1%)
Tampa, FL (-15.7%)
Minneapolis (-12.9%)
West Palm Beach, FL (-12.5%)
Increased in 9 metros
New listings
Cincinnati (20.7%)
San Jose, CA (19%)
Sacramento, CA (18.2%)
Baltimore (17.2%)
San Diego (17.1%)
Atlanta (-16%)
Austin, TX (-5.4%)
Chicago (-3.9%)
Portland, OR (-3.8%)
Nassau County, NY (-3.1%)
Declined in 11 metros
To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-housing-payments-pending-sales-decline
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate
company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage,
rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run
the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save
thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying
customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and
title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home
can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our
rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments
and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers
more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100
markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000
people.
Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity
Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and
WalkScore®.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate
agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends
and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to
Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com.
To view Redfin's press center, click here.
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240815545084/en/
Contact Redfin Redfin Journalist Services: Tana Kelley
press@redfin.com
Redfin (NASDAQ:RDFN)
Historical Stock Chart
From Sep 2024 to Oct 2024
Redfin (NASDAQ:RDFN)
Historical Stock Chart
From Oct 2023 to Oct 2024