Earnings Scorecard: Hologic - Analyst Blog
May 10 2012 - 10:30AM
Zacks
Following the announcement of
Hologic’s (HOLX) second quarter of fiscal 2012
results and the proposed acquisition of Gen-Probe
(GPRO) on April 30 2012, analysts have lowered their estimates for
the forthcoming quarters.
Previous Quarter
Highlights
Hologic reported a loss per share
of 15 cents in the second quarter of fiscal 2012 compared with
earnings per share (“EPS”) of 31 cents in the year-ago period.
After taking into account certain one-time items in both the
periods, adjusted EPS came in at 33 cents, in line with the Zacks
Consensus Estimate and ahead of the year-ago quarter’s 30 cents.
Among several adjustments, adjusted EPS in the reported quarter
excludes charges of $18.3 million related to the write-off of
certain assets as a result of the company's decision to cease
commercialization of Adiana. The decision to discontinue
Adiana was taken as it was not found to be commercially viable.
Revenues were $471.2 million, an
increase of 7.4% year over year driven by growth across all
segments. However, revenues were short of the Zacks Consensus
Estimate of $474 million and came in on the lower end of the
company’s guidance of $470–$475 million.
Hologic also announced its decision
to acquire all outstanding shares of Gen-Probe, a player in the
field of molecular diagnostics, for $82.75 per share in cash, or a
total enterprise value of approximately $3.7 billion. The deal will
be funded through available cash and additional financing of term
loans.
Hologic provided its guidance for
the third quarter of fiscal 2012. For the said quarter, the company
expects to report $475−$480 million of revenues (representing
annualized growth of 5−6%) resulting in adjusted EPS of 34 cents, a
penny short of the then Zacks Consensus Estimate. The revenue
estimate was behind the consensus estimate of $482 million. For
fiscal 2012, Hologic still expects to report revenues of
$1.9−$1.925 billion (growth of 6−8%) and adjusted EPS of
$1.36−$1.38.
For a full coverage on the
earnings, read: Hologic Incurs Loss, Eyes Gen-Probe
Agreement of
Analysts
The brokerage community seems to be
apprehensive of Hologic’s merger plans with Gen-Probe citing
integration issues that can emerge in big M&A deals. Over the
last 30 days, 9 of the 18 analysts covering the stock have lowered
their estimates for the third quarter of fiscal 2012, with no
positive revisions. For the current fiscal, 6 analysts have lowered
their estimates with only one upward revision. Although Hologic
expects the combined company to yield $75 million in cost synergies
within three years, no further details were provided.
Another area of concern is the high
leverage, which now stands at 5.3. Hologic however expects to
utilize strong cash flow from operations, of the combined company,
to bring down the leverage to the pre-transaction debt level within
three years. However, if sales of the new products fail to meet
estimates, the company’s performance will be adversely
affected.
Magnitude of Estimate
Revisions
Based on negative revision trends,
the consensus estimate for the third quarter has dropped by a penny
to 34 cents in the past 30 days. The consensus estimate for fiscal
2012 also declined by a penny to $1.37 over the last 30 days,
indicative of market pessimism surrounding several issues related
to the Gen-Probe deal.
Neutral on
Hologic
Offering a wide range of products,
Hologic has become an industry giant in the field of women’s
health. Moreover, the proposed acquisition of Gen-Probe will bring
with it a strong molecular diagnostics segment with special focus
on women’s health. Besides, the company will have access to
Gen-Probe's molecular diagnostic platforms of Tigris and Panther
systems along with a wide portfolio of tests. While the deal should
add value over the long term, the company would come up against
several near-term challenges.
Sales of Dimensions continued to
gain traction and are expected to be an important growth driver for
the Breast Health segment. Given the current status (35%
accomplished till date and targeting 60% at the end of the current
fiscal), the company is confident of being able to achieve the
target of placing 500-700 3D systems in the US within the first two
years of approval. While we are concerned with Hologic
discontinuing Adiana, we are encouraged by the reiteration of the
2012 guidance.
Over the long term, we have a
Neutral recommendation on Hologic. The stock remains a Zacks #3
Rank (Hold) in the short term.
About Earnings Estimate
Scorecard
As a PhD from MIT, Len Zacks
proved over 30 years ago that earnings estimate revisions are the
most powerful force impacting stock prices. He turned this ground
breaking discovery into two of the most celebrating stock rating
systems in use today. The Zacks Rank for stock trading in a 1 to 3
month time horizon and the Zacks Recommendation for long-term
investing (6+ months). These “Earnings Estimate Scorecard” articles
help analyze the important aspects of estimate
revisionsfor each stock after their quarterly earnings
announcements. Learn more about earnings estimates and our proven
stock ratings at
http://www.zacks.com/education/
GEN-PROBE INC (GPRO): Free Stock Analysis Report
HOLOGIC INC (HOLX): Free Stock Analysis Report
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