By Laura Mandaro
The sudden contraction in U.S. consumer spending and global
liquidity that brought some of America's most revered companies to
their knees has made the Dow Jones Industrial Average -- meant to
represent the country's leading companies -- more a benchmark of
laggards.
For the year to date, the gauge of 30 large and established
companies (DJI) has fallen 5.1%. The S&P 500 (SPX), made up of
a wider variety of large-capitalization and some younger companies,
is about flat.
The Wilshire 5000 Total Market index has gained 2%. And the more
growth- and tech-oriented Nasdaq Composite (RIXF) index has rallied
14%.
Steep slides in shares of General Motors Corp. (US-GM) and
Citigroup Inc. (C), which hit record lows this year, weighed on the
Dow's performance. These stocks were dropped from the blue-chip
barometer earlier this month.
But even with new entrants Travelers Cos. (TRV) and Cisco
Systems (CSCO), the Dow may fail to catch up as a recovering
economy favors smaller companies that that don't sell much of their
wares overseas.
"We think the recession is ending right here and the resumption
of growth will disproportionally benefit smaller-capitalization
companies," said Phil Orlando, chief equity strategist at Federated
Investors, which manages about $409 billion.
On Thursday, all U.S. benchmarks fell after the Labor
Department's June jobs report showed a steeper drop in jobs than
economists were expecting.
The Dow industrials fell 171 points, or 2%, to 8,334. The
S&P 500 sank 21 points, or 2.3%, to 902 points. The Nasdaq
Composite lost 44 points, or 2.4%, to 1,802.
GE, Caterpillar lead declines
The performance of the Dow-30 over the two years has shown that
a traditional strategy of favoring large-cap companies over smaller
ones during tough times didn't pan out.
"Going large didn't work this time. Staying small helped," said
James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital
Management, which manages about $375 billion.
In particular, tech, retail and emerging-markets sectors all
outperformed the S&P 500 since the summer of 2007, when the
financial crisis got into gear, he noted.
Since the bear market started in October 2007, the Dow has
fallen at about the same pace as the S&P 500 and the Wilshire
5000, registering a roughly 40% drop.
For just this year, however, that gap widened. One factor
dogging the blue-chip gauge: Several constituents were the big
banks and financials at the epicenter of the mortgage and credit
crisis.
Shares of Bank of America Corp. (BAC), a Dow-30 component,
plunged to below $3 back in late February. The stock is down 9%
this year.
Citigroup's stock tumbled to an all-time low under $1 in March
as worries that huge losses would lead to a government takeover.
The publishers of the Dow Jones Industrial Average removed Citi
from about a month ago, at the same time when GM, another erstwhile
component, filed for bankruptcy.
Even General Electric Co. (GE), the worse performer among the
Dow's current consistuents with a 28% year-to-date loss, owes much
of its woes to its finance arm.
Buck to give a boost
Since hitting a closing low on March 9, the Dow has rallied 27%
-- slightly under the 33% gain in the S&P 500 and the 35% gain
in the Wilshire 5000.
It's likely to continue to underperform as a recovery favors
tinier, more nimble companies, analysts say. Fluctuations in the
U.S. dollar are one reason.
Federated's Orlando anticipates that the dollar has ended its
slide and will strengthen against the euro. A stronger dollar puts
more domestic-oriented companies at the advantage to larger
multinationals - the type of companies like McDonald's Corp. (MCD)
and General Electric that make up the Dow.
Unless they're struggling against huge job losses, plunging
industrial output and a historic credit squeeze, multinationals
tend to benefit when the dollar slips.
"If we're right that the dollar will strengthen over the next
year, that's not great for large-capitalization companies," Orlando
said.