MARKET WRAPS
Stocks:
European stocks fell Monday after markets in China and Hong Kong
plummeted.
The major markets action on Monday was tied to China, as the
Hang Seng skidded over 4%, following a crackdown both on Tencent's
music licensing and the entire tutoring industry. In premarket
trade, Tencent Music Entertainment shares dropped 14% after China
ordered the company to end exclusive contracts with music copyright
holders.
Hong Kong-listed education stocks skidded after educational
training institutions were banned from raising money in the stock
market and foreign capital cannot invest. The crackdown slammed
U.S.-listed Chinese education stocks on Friday.
The crackdown came as China blamed the U.S. for a stalemate in
bilateral relations as high-level talks began in the Chinese city
of Tianjin.
Rising concerns over the Delta variant of Covid-19 and concerns
over economic growth are also likely to challenge the pace at which
the U.S. stock market will rise in the coming weeks, investors
said. Money managers are also awaiting guidance from the Federal
Reserve this week, including policy makers' outlook on inflation
and any clues on when the central bank may start scaling back its
bond purchase program.
"This will be a choppy environment for the rest of the year as
markets deal with growth that isn't as strong, and markets turn to
the potential withdrawal of policy support," said Hugh Gimber, a
strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. "You would expect that
the spread of the Delta variant would put restrictions in place
longer and some supply bottlenecks may not last just a few
months."
Among individual equities, shares in Dutch internet conglomerate
Prosus, a major investor in Tencent, fell over 9% in Amsterdam.
U.S. Markets:
Stock futures dropped, suggesting that the major stock indexes
will retreat from last week's all-time highs after markets in China
and Hong Kong plummeted.
Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated.
the blue chip index on Friday crossed the 35000 closing milestone
for the first time in its history after climbing over 1% last
week.
Investors are awaiting earnings from a bevy of American
companies including giant technology companies this week that will
indicate how large businesses are weathering the pandemic and a
recent uptick in inflation. Lockheed Martin is slated to post
earnings before the market opens, and electric-car maker Tesla is
due to report after the closing bell.
"This week is really where we enter crunchtime for earnings,"
Mr. Gimber said. "With tech names reporting, the bar is high."
Forex:
The dollar could rise if the Federal Reserve signals that its
bond buying program won't continue for much longer in a policy
decision Wednesday, Commerzbank said.
The Fed could imply this by changing its statement to say that
it would continue buying bonds "until further progress has been
made" from the current "until substantial progress has been made,"
Commerzbank currency analyst Ulrich Leuchtmann said.
While the bond-buying program is "pretty irrelevant" for the
foreign exchange market, a change in wording would suggest the Fed,
unlike the European Central Bank, is "willing to take restrictive
steps again," he said.
Cryptocurrencies jumped Monday, with bitcoin rising more than
18% from its 5 p.m. ET level Friday. Investors pointed to short
positions being liquidated and speculation that Amazon.com may be
venturing into digital currencies. The price of bitcoin rose to as
much as $39,544.29, its highest level since mid June, according to
CoinDesk.
EUR/USD, last steady at 1.1773, is likely to "stay sluggish" but
stuck within a tight range as both the euro and the dollar are held
back, said UniCredit.
Lower U.S. Treasury yields have been "a drag" on the dollar in
recent weeks, but lower German bond yields following last week's
hints of prolonged stimulus from the European Central Bank aren't
helping the euro either, the bank said.
Softer U.S. new homes sales, due later Monday, would likely have
a "negligible impact" on the dollar, UniCredit said.
The ongoing clash between the U.K. and EU over post-Brexit
trading arrangements for Northern Ireland is likely to limit any
sterling gains this week in the absence of market-moving economic
data, ING said.
"It appears very little downside risks related to this topic are
priced into GBP, and a combination with a USD-positive Fed meeting
could make cable [GBP/USD] re-test the 1.3600 support this
week."
Bonds:
Morgan Stanley keeps short U.S. Treasuries, seeing the fair
value of 10-year U.S. Treasury yields at around 1.60% in the
current environment, said strategist Guneet Dhingra.
In assessing the fair value, Morgan Stanley makes assumptions
about where it thinks the market can price in the timing of the
first rate hike by the Federal Reserve and the subsequent pace.
Taking a conservative approach, Morgan Stanley thinks the market
can price the first hike in the first or second quarter of 2023,
Dhingra said.
German Bunds are expected to outperform U.S. Treasuries due to
the diverging monetary policies of the European Central Bank and
the Fed, said Morgan Stanley.
"We think that the increasingly divergent reaction functions
between the Fed and the ECB will likely favour Bund outperformance
versus USTs over the near term," said strategists Alina Zaytseva
and Lorenzo Testa.
They see the risks for the July FOMC meeting as skewed toward an
upbeat and hawkish message, while the ECB's position is dovish. The
10-year UST-Bund spread is 168 basis points, according to
Tradeweb.
Morgan Stanley thinks a reversal to above 200 basis points may
not be attainable in the short run, though.
Commodities:
Oil prices fell, continuing the volatility the market has
experienced in recent weeks.
Investors are increasingly worried about rising coronavirus case
numbers in several major Asian economies and "any significant
reversal of easing in restrictions in parts of Europe and the U.S.
would send a fairly bearish signal to the market, particularly when
you consider the higher vaccination rates in those regions," said
ING's Warren Patterson.
In addition, traders reduced their net bets on rising Brent and
WTI prices last week to their lowest since May and November
respectively
Base metal prices slipped as China's crackdown on the equity
market prompts inventors to flee from risk assets.
Three-month copper on the LME was down 0.6% at $9,571.50 a
metric ton, while aluminum fell 1% to $2,483.50 a ton and nickel
edged down 0.2% to $19,440 a ton.
EMEA HEADLINES
German Business Sentiment Falls in July
German business sentiment worsened in July amid an increase in
coronavirus infections and supply woes, missing forecasts for an
increase.
The Ifo business-climate index came in at 100.8 points in July
compared with the 101.7 points registered in June, according to
data from the Ifo Institute released Monday. The reading missed a
forecast from economists polled by The Wall Street Journal, who
expected the index to increase to 102.5.
Talking Markets: Delta Variant Stunts European Households'
Confidence
Consumer confidence in Europe is wobbling amid the spread of the
more infectious Covid-19 Delta variant, denting the region's
prospects of a strong, consumer-led recovery this summer.
The eurozone's consumer confidence indicator fell in July
following five consecutive months of gains, preliminary data from
Eurostat showed Thursday. The last decline was registered in
January amid a sharp rise in Covid-19 cases. The U.K.'s consumer
barometer, compiled by research firm GfK, increased in July, but
showed that Britons' expectations about the economy's short-term
performance are worsening.
Ryanair Sees a Further Drop in Fares to Counteract 'Pingdemic,'
Travel Uncertainty
Ryanair Holdings PLC said Monday that it expects the U.K.'s
current "pingdemic" to lead to more uncertainty and that it will
counteract this with more price stimulation and lower fares in the
near term.
The "pingdemic" refers to people being notified by the U.K.
National Health Service's Covid-19 app that they need to
self-isolate for a set amount of time after it registers users have
been in close contact with someone who has tested positive for the
coronavirus.
Philips Launches EUR1.5B Share-Buyback Program; 2Q Profit Hit by
Provision
Koninklijke Philips NV on Monday launched a 1.5 billion euro
($1.77 billion) share buyback as it reported a fall in
second-quarter net profit after booking a provision against a
faulty component used in some sleep and respiratory-care products,
as previously flagged.
The Dutch health-technology company backed its full-year
guidance. It expects to deliver low-to-mid-single-digits comparable
sales growth for 2021. The company also said it expects to report
adjusted earnings before interest, taxes and amortization margin
improvement of 60 to 80 basis points.
Credit Suisse Settles Spying Case With Ex-Executive Iqbal
Khan
Credit Suisse Group AG said it reached a settlement with a
former executive and private investigators over a spying scandal
that rocked the bank.
In fall 2019, the Swiss bank hired investigators to spy on Iqbal
Khan, a top wealth-management executive who was leaving to join
rival UBS Group AG. Mr. Khan spotted one of the investigators and
went to the police, setting off international headlines and leading
to the ouster of the bank's chief executive over the reputational
fallout.
The Delta Variant Upends the World's Pandemic Response
The Delta variant is changing calculations of governments around
the world, raising doubts about how quickly they can leave the
coronavirus pandemic behind, widening the gulf between highly
vaccinated places and the rest, and infiltrating countries that had
previously kept the virus at bay.
The variant's ability to spread more easily than previous
dominant versions of the virus has driven rapidly rising Covid-19
caseloads even in highly vaccinated countries such as the U.K. and
Israel. There, the vaccines have suppressed serious illness and
deaths. But, in many parts of the rest of the world, the pandemic
that has already sickened at least 200 million people and killed
more than four million is intensifying.
Private-Equity Firms Spark Bidding Wars in U.K.
Blackstone Group Inc., Carlyle Group Inc. and other buyout firms
are bidding for U.K. publicly listed companies at a faster rate
than they have in years. The reason: Post-Brexit Britain is one of
the few markets where investors think big assets are going for
cheap.
Covid-19 Pill Race Heats Up as Japanese Firm Vies With Pfizer,
Merck
A Japanese company has started human trials of the first
once-a-day pill for Covid-19 patients, joining Pfizer Inc. and
Merck & Co. in the race to find treatments for the disease.
Osaka-based Shionogi & Co., which helped develop the
blockbuster cholesterol drug Crestor, said it designed its pill to
attack the Covid-19 virus. It said the once-a-day dosing would be
more convenient. The company said it is testing the drug and any
side effects in trials that began this month and are likely to
continue until next year.
Covid-19 Vaccine Holdouts Face Restrictions in Europe as Delta
Variant Spreads
European governments worried about the rapid spread of the Delta
coronavirus variant are nudging, and in some cases pushing, people
to get a shot by introducing restrictions to daily life for those
without a Covid-19 vaccination.
In most cases, vaccination still isn't obligatory, with a few
exceptions such as healthcare workers in Italy. Yet by closing off
the unvaccinated from aspects of daily life such as indoor dining
at restaurants or going to the gym, governments are looking to make
life more difficult for people holding out against getting
vaccinated.
GLOBAL NEWS
A Key Gauge of Future Inflation Is Easing
One of the most important signals of future inflation has begun
to ease in the past month, a development that should reassure the
Federal Reserve in its prediction that the recent inflation surge
will prove largely temporary.
Hot Used-Car Market Boosts Auto Lenders and Borrowers
Red-hot demand for used cars is turning the auto-lending world
upside down.
Prices are so high that some lenders are coming out ahead on
defaulted auto debt. And far fewer borrowers are underwater on
their car loans, meaning they don't owe more than the car is worth
when they trade it in. It is a tricky time to buy a car, but a
pretty good time to owe money on one.
Bitcoin Jumps 20% to a Six-Week High
The price of bitcoin jumped to a six-week high on Monday, with
some investors attributing the rally to short positions being
liquidated and speculation that Amazon.com Inc. may be venturing
into digital currencies.
Bitcoin soared to $39,112.05, up more than 20% from its 5 p.m.
EDT level Friday, according to CoinDesk, reaching its highest level
since mid-June. Ether, its rival currency, jumped more than
16%.
Senators Try to Finalize Deal on Infrastructure Package
WASHINGTON-Lawmakers pushed to finalize an infrastructure
agreement Sunday, but said they were still struggling to resolve a
dispute over how much to increase public-transit funding, a snag
that could delay their goal of advancing the bill in a Senate vote
early this week.
GOP senators had blocked efforts by Democrats to begin
consideration of the roughly $1 trillion infrastructure bill on
Wednesday, saying too much of the package remained unresolved.
Lawmakers in a bipartisan group crafting the legislation said late
last week that they hoped to finish in time to reverse that outcome
in a second vote in the next few days.
U.S. Set to Push Global Economy Over the Recovery Line
The U.S. economy likely returned to its late-2019 size during
the three months through June, helping to lift global output above
its pre-pandemic level for the first time.
Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal estimate that
figures to be released Thursday will show that the U.S. gross
domestic product rose at an 8.5% seasonally adjusted annual rate in
the second quarter. That likely left U.S. GDP-the value of all
goods and services produced across the economy, adjusted for
seasonality and inflation-above the $19.2 trillion level reached in
the final quarter of 2019, the last before the spread of Covid-19
pushed large parts of the global economy to shut down and contract,
they say.
What's Holding Back China's Recovery? The Kids Aren't
Alright
What is holding back China's economic recovery, particularly in
services and consumption?
China's Digital Yuan Puts Ant and Tencent in an Awkward Spot
HONG KONG-China is calling on private-sector pioneers Ant Group
Co. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. to help it develop a state-backed
digital currency that threatens the pair's highly popular payment
networks.
The People's Bank of China in recent months has accelerated the
testing of its digital yuan, putting the operators of Alipay and
WeChat Pay in a difficult spot: They have little choice but to take
part, despite the risk of eroding the huge user bases they have
grown over years. Most of China's 1.4 billion people use at least
one of the private services to make mobile payments.
Investors Are Buying American
Investors around the globe are pouring money into U.S. financial
assets, a sign of confidence that the world's largest economy
remains poised to pull through the Covid-19 pandemic better than
many others.
Talking Markets: Delta Variant Stunts European Households'
Confidence
Consumer confidence in Europe is wobbling amid the spread of the
more infectious Covid-19 Delta variant, denting the region's
prospects of a strong, consumer-led recovery this summer.
The eurozone's consumer confidence indicator fell in July
following five consecutive months of gains, preliminary data from
Eurostat showed Thursday. The last decline was registered in
January amid a sharp rise in Covid-19 cases. The U.K.'s consumer
barometer, compiled by research firm GfK, increased in July, but
showed that Britons' expectations about the economy's short-term
performance are worsening.
Senators Try to Finalize Deal on Infrastructure Package
WASHINGTON-Lawmakers pushed to finalize an infrastructure
agreement Sunday, but said they were still struggling to resolve a
dispute over how much to increase public-transit funding, a snag
that could delay their goal of advancing the bill in a Senate vote
early this week.
GOP senators had blocked efforts by Democrats to begin
consideration of the roughly $1 trillion infrastructure bill on
Wednesday, saying too much of the package remained unresolved.
Lawmakers in a bipartisan group crafting the legislation said late
last week that they hoped to finish in time to reverse that outcome
in a second vote in the next few days.
U.S. Set to Push Global Economy Over the Recovery Line
The U.S. economy likely returned to its late-2019 size during
the three months through June, helping to lift global output above
its pre-pandemic level for the first time.
Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal estimate that
figures to be released Thursday will show that the U.S. gross
domestic product rose at an 8.5% seasonally adjusted annual rate in
the second quarter. That likely left U.S. GDP-the value of all
goods and services produced across the economy, adjusted for
seasonality and inflation-above the $19.2 trillion level reached in
the final quarter of 2019, the last before the spread of Covid-19
pushed large parts of the global economy to shut down and contract,
they say.
What's Holding Back China's Recovery? The Kids Aren't
Alright
What is holding back China's economic recovery, particularly in
services and consumption?
China's Digital Yuan Puts Ant and Tencent in an Awkward Spot
HONG KONG-China is calling on private-sector pioneers Ant Group
Co. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. to help it develop a state-backed
digital currency that threatens the pair's highly popular payment
networks.
The People's Bank of China in recent months has accelerated the
testing of its digital yuan, putting the operators of Alipay and
WeChat Pay in a difficult spot: They have little choice but to take
part, despite the risk of eroding the huge user bases they have
grown over years. Most of China's 1.4 billion people use at least
one of the private services to make mobile payments.
Investors Are Buying American
Investors around the globe are pouring money into U.S. financial
assets, a sign of confidence that the world's largest economy
remains poised to pull through the Covid-19 pandemic better than
many others.
U.S. Intensifies Airstrikes in Afghanistan as Taliban Offensive
Nears Kandahar
The U.S. has stepped up airstrikes in southern Afghanistan amid
growing apprehension over a Taliban offensive threatening Kandahar,
the country's second-largest city and spiritual capital of the
Taliban movement.
The fall of Kandahar would deal a heavy blow to the U.S.-backed
government in Kabul, which is trying to impart calm to its citizens
as the Taliban has seized swaths of the countryside, but so far
failed to take a major city.
Write to sarka.halas@wsj.com
Write to us at newsletters@dowjones.com
We offer an enhanced version of this briefing that is optimized
for viewing on mobile devices and sent directly to your email
inbox. If you would like to sign up, please go to
https://newsplus.wsj.com/subscriptions.
This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal
newsletter published earlier today.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 26, 2021 06:15 ET (10:15 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.