Mastercard SpendingPulse Forecasts 7.5%* Growth for U.S. Back-to-School Retail Sales
June 14 2022 - 7:01AM
Business Wire
Total retail sales post double-digit growth
in May, with Department Stores, Jewelry and Luxury
outperforming
While inflation is impacting retail sectors and households in a
myriad of ways, continued consumer demand contributed to
double-digit growth across nearly all retail sectors in May. This
is according to Mastercard SpendingPulse™, which measures in-store
and online retail sales across all forms of payment, not adjusted
for inflation. As we look ahead to the critical mid-July through
Labor Day back-to-school period, U.S. retail sales are expected to
grow 7.5% excluding automotive compared to 2021. Sales are
anticipated to be up 18.3% compared to pre-pandemic 2019, with
Department Stores expected to be a noteworthy winner as the sector
continues its recent rebound.
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Mastercard SpendingPulse: Anticipated
Back-to-School Retail Sales (Graphic: Business Wire)
“Back-to-school is the second biggest season for retailers and
is often looked at as an early indicator of retail momentum ahead
of the traditional holiday season,” said Steve Sadove, senior
advisor for Mastercard and former CEO and Chairman of Saks
Incorporated. “While Mastercard SpendingPulse anticipates growth
across sectors, retailers will need to find innovative ways to
entice shoppers as discretionary spending potentially stretches
thin as a result of increasing prices.”
This back-to-school season will be defined by the resilience and
flexibility of the consumer. Ultimately, we’ll watch to see how
they balance their desire for fresh styles and new experiences with
continued price pressures. Anticipated retail trends for the 2022
back-to-school season include:
- The In-Store Experience: Shopping for back-to-school
becomes an experience of its own. From needing to try on new sizes
to wanting to browse the latest fashions in person, the return to
stores is expected to grow 8.2% YOY / 9.9% YO3Y this season.
- Department Stores Continue their Rebound: Following a
multi-year decline, department stores have made their way into the
spotlight after 15 consecutive months of sustained growth. Serving
as a one stop shop with a range of options for the whole family at
a variety of price points, the back-to-school season is anticipated
to drive the Department Store sector up 13% YOY / 27.3% YO3Y.
- Stacked Social Calendars Drive Apparel Growth: More
gatherings require more looks. With weddings, events and vacations
lined up for the foreseeable future, the demand for apparel both
in-store and online sees no signs of slowing, forecasted to be up
8.7% YOY / 15.9% YO3Y.
May Retail Sales Growth
According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, total U.S. retail sales
excluding automotive increased 10.5% year-over-year in May, and
21.4% compared to pre-pandemic May 2019. This is outpacing YOY
monthly growth experienced thus far in 2022. In-store sales were a
key driver, up 13.7% compared to pre-pandemic levels.
“The continued retail sales momentum in May aligns with the
sustained growth rates we’ve seen so far this year,” said Michelle
Meyer, U.S. Chief Economist, Mastercard Economics Institute. “The
consumer has been resilient, spending on goods and increasingly
services as the economy continues to rebalance. That said,
headwinds have become stronger - including gains in prices for
necessities like gas and food, as well as higher interest
rates."
*excluding auto
About Mastercard SpendingPulse
Mastercard SpendingPulse™ reports on national retail sales
across all payment types in select markets around the world. The
findings are based on aggregate sales activity in the Mastercard
payments network, coupled with survey-based estimates for certain
other payment forms, such as cash and check. As such,
SpendingPulse™ insights do not in any way contain, reflect or
relate to actual Mastercard operational or financial performance,
or specific payment-card-issuer data.
Mastercard SpendingPulse defines “U.S. retail sales” as sales at
retailers and food services merchants of all sizes. Sales activity
within the services sector (for example, travel services such as
airlines and lodging) are not included.
About Mastercard (NYSE: MA)
Mastercard is a global technology company in the payments
industry. Our mission is to connect and power an inclusive, digital
economy that benefits everyone, everywhere by making transactions
safe, simple, smart and accessible. Using secure data and networks,
partnerships and passion, our innovations and solutions help
individuals, financial institutions, governments and businesses
realize their greatest potential. Our decency quotient, or DQ,
drives our culture and everything we do inside and outside of our
company. With connections across more than 210 countries and
territories, we are building a sustainable world that unlocks
priceless possibilities for all.
www.mastercard.com
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version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220613005885/en/
Media Contacts Alexandria Pierroz, Mastercard
914.260.1020 | Alexandria.Pierroz@mastercard.com
Avery Jaffe, Mastercard 914- 249-1771 |
avery.jaffe@mastercard.com
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