DALLAS, April 1, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica
Bank's Texas Economic Activity Index increased in January to 142.2.
January's index reading was 47 points, or 49 percent, above the
index cyclical low of 95.5. The index averaged 139.1 points for all
of 2019, 3.8 points above the average for 2018. December's index
reading was revised to 141.4.
Data for all of Comerica Bank's State Economic Activity Indexes
pre-dates the spread of COVID-19 in the U.S. We expect to begin
seeing the economic impact of the coronavirus and related
mitigation programs in state-level data for March. Until the March
data becomes available, we will focus our analysis on what the
current data is telling us and what we believe is the most likely
course for the data over the next few months. Comerica Bank's Texas
Economic Activity Index improved in January for the fifth
consecutive month. Six index components were positive for the
month. They were nonfarm payrolls, housing starts, house prices,
total state trade, hotel occupancy and state sales tax revenue.
Unemployment insurance claims (inverted), industrial electricity
demand and the rig count were drags in January. The Texas economy is feeling drag from three
directions this spring. First, global and U.S. demand is weak due
to the pandemic. Second, shelter-in-place rules are reducing local
demand for goods and services. Third, the state's energy sector is
being hurt by the ramp up in oil production in Saudi Arabia. Oil at $20 per barrel for an extended period will reset
the energy sector in Texas. Oil
producers have announced significant reductions to their capital
expenditure plans for 2020. We expect to see U.S. oil production
ease later this year as fewer wells are drilled and some are capped
in the months ahead.
The Texas Economic Activity Index consists of nine variables, as
follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for
unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index,
industrial electricity sales, Texas rotary rig count, total trade, hotel
occupancy and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Total
index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving
averages.
Comerica Bank is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:
CMA), the largest U.S. commercial bank headquartered in
Texas, strategically aligned by
three business segments: The Business Bank, The Retail Bank, and
Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping
people and businesses be successful. In addition to a local banking
center network throughout Dallas-Fort
Worth, Houston,
Austin, San Antonio and Kerrville, Texas, Comerica Bank locations can
be found in Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in
several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico.
To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at
ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at
http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter:
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank