DALLAS, April 1, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica
Bank's Texas Economic Activity Index increased by 0.4 percent in
January to 136.2. January's index reading is 41 points, or 43
percent, above the index cyclical low of 95.5. The index averaged
134.5 points for all of 2018, 5.7 points above the average for
2017. December's index reading was revised to 135.7.
The Comerica Bank Texas Economic Activity Index got back on
track in January, increasing by 0.4 percent, after easing by 0.1
percent in December. The January 2019
index is 2.3 percent above its reading from a year ago, consistent
with ongoing real state gross domestic product growth over 2018. In
January, five out of nine index components were positive. They were
nonfarm employment, housing starts, house prices, hotel occupancy
and state sales tax revenues. The negatives for January were
initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), industrial
electricity demand, rig count and total state trade. It looks like
the Texas economy cooled from
strong growth through the first half of 2018, to moderate growth
through the second half of the year. This is consistent with the
pattern of crude oil prices, which increased to a peak of near
$74 per barrel by early October, and
then dropped sharply to about $46 per
barrel by year-end. Drilling and production companies scaled back
their activities through the end of 2018, and planned for reduced
growth in capital spending in 2019 as a result of the reset in
crude oil prices. With oil prices back up to near $60 per barrel, energy companies are more
profitable but have remained cautious about ramping up capital
spending. We expect cooler global and U.S. economic conditions in
2019 to keep Texas economic growth
positive, but moderate this year.
The Texas Economic Activity Index consists of nine variables, as
follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for
unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index,
industrial electricity sales, Texas rotary rig count, total trade, hotel
occupancy and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Total
index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving
averages.
Comerica Bank is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:
CMA), the largest U.S. commercial bank headquartered in
Texas, strategically aligned by
three business segments: The Business Bank, The Retail Bank, and
Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping
people and businesses be successful. In addition to a local banking
center network throughout Dallas-Fort
Worth, Houston,
Austin, San Antonio and Kerrville, Texas, Comerica Bank locations can
be found in Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in
several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico.
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ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at
http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter:
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank