CHICAGO, Oct. 6, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing [NYSE: BA]
today released its annual forecast for the commercial and defense
aerospace market, reflecting the impact of the COVID-19
pandemic and Boeing's view of near-, medium- and long-term market
dynamics. The 2020 Boeing Market Outlook (BMO) projects
that the commercial aviation and services markets will
continue to face significant challenges due to the pandemic, while
global defense and government services markets remain more
stable.
"While this year has been unprecedented in terms of its
disruption to our industry, we believe that aerospace and defense
will overcome these near-term challenges, return to stability and
emerge with strength," said Boeing Chief Strategy Officer
Marc Allen.
The BMO forecasts a total market value of $8.5 trillion over the next decade including
demand for aerospace products and services. The forecast is down
from $8.7 trillion a year ago due to
the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Airlines globally have begun
to recover from a greater than 90% decline in passenger traffic and
revenue early this year, but a full recovery will take years,
according to the outlook.
The 2020 Boeing Market Outlook includes projected demand for
18,350 commercial airplanes in the next decade – 11% lower than the
comparable 2019 forecast – valued at about $2.9 trillion. In the longer term, with key
industry drivers expected to remain stable, the commercial fleet is
forecasted to return to its growth trend, generating demand for
more than 43,000 new airplanes in the 20-year forecast time
period.
The BMO also projects a $2.6
trillion market opportunity for defense and space during the
next decade. This spending projection reflects the ongoing
importance of military aircraft, autonomous systems, satellites,
spacecraft and other products to national and international
defense. This demand continues to be global in nature with 40
percent of expenditures expected to originate outside of
the United States.
While near-term commercial services demand is lower, the BMO
forecasts a $3 trillion market
opportunity for commercial and government services through 2029,
with digital solutions emerging as a critical enabler as customers
focus on leaner operations to adjust to future market demand. Life
cycle services and support will help customers scale their
operations to meet efficiency and cost objectives aligned to market
recovery trends.
As the impact of the pandemic continues, Boeing is taking action
to reshape its business operations to adapt to the new market
reality and become more resilient for the long term. This business
transformation includes every element of Boeing's enterprise,
including infrastructure, overhead and organization, portfolio and
investments, supply chain health and operational excellence.
Also released today, the 2020 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO),
an annual 20-year forecast addressing the market for commercial
airplanes and services, projects an increase in the share of
deliveries replacing older passenger aircraft that are being
retired in an accelerated replacement cycle, especially in the
first decade.
"Commercial aviation is facing historic challenges this year,
significantly affecting near- and medium-term demand for airplanes
and services," said Darren Hulst,
vice president, Commercial Marketing. "Yet history has also proven
air travel to be resilient time and again. The current disruption
will inform airline fleet strategies long into the future, as
airlines focus on building versatile fleets, networks and business
model innovations that deliver the most capability and greatest
efficiency at the lowest risk for sustainable growth."
The commercial forecast includes:
- Over the next 20 years, passenger traffic growth is projected
to increase by an average of 4% per year.
- The global commercial fleet is expected to reach 48,400 by
2039, up from 25,900 airplanes today. During this period,
Asia will continue to expand its
share of the world's fleet, accounting for nearly 40% of the fleet
compared to about 30% today.
- Single-aisle airplanes such as the 737 MAX will continue to be
the largest market segment, with operators projected to need 32,270
new airplanes in the next 20 years. Single-aisle demand will
recover sooner due to its key role in short-haul routes and
domestic markets as well as passenger preference for point-to-point
service.
- In the widebody market, Boeing forecasts demand for 7,480 new
passenger airplanes by 2039. Widebody demand will be affected by a
slower recovery in long-haul markets – typical after air-travel
shocks – as well as uncertainties from COVID-19's impact on
international travel.
- Air cargo demand, a relative bright spot in 2020, is expected
to grow 4% annually and generate further demand for 930 new
widebody production freighters and 1,500 converted freighters over
the forecast period.
Airplane demand,
2020-2039
|
Airplane
type
|
Seats
|
Total
deliveries
|
Regional
jets
|
90 and
below
|
2,430
|
Single-aisle
|
90 and
above
|
32,270
|
Widebody
|
|
7,480
|
Freighter
widebody
|
---------
|
930
|
Total
|
---------
|
43,110
|
The global airplane fleet will continue to generate demand for
aviation services, including parts and supply chain; engineering,
modifications and maintenance; training and professional services;
and digital solutions and analytics. The served market for
commercial services is valued at $1.6
trillion, and $1.4 trillion
for government services.
"Boeing is focused on making sure that the right services
solutions are available to help our customers and industry navigate
the downturn and scale their operations accordingly as near-term
demand trends upward. For example, low-cost digital solutions can
help manage some of the most critical and dynamic aspects of
operations, such as crew scheduling," said Eric Strafel, vice president, Boeing Global
Services Strategy.
Around the world, the long-term need for commercial pilots,
maintenance technicians and cabin crew remains robust. Boeing's
2020 Pilot and Technician Outlook forecasts that the civil aviation
industry will need nearly 2.4 million new aviation personnel
between now and 2039.
The Commercial Market Outlook is the longest-running jet
forecast and is regarded as the most comprehensive analysis of the
commercial aviation industry. The CMO and other Boeing market
forecasts can be found at https://www.boeing.com/market.
Forward-Looking Information Is Subject to Risk and
Uncertainty
Certain statements in this release may be "forward-looking"
within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act
of 1995. Words such as "expects," "forecasts," "projects," "plans,"
"believes," "estimates" and similar expressions are used to
identify these forward-looking statements. Examples of
forward-looking statements include statements relating to our
future plans, business prospects, financial condition and operating
results, as well as any other statement that does not directly
relate to any historical or current fact. Forward-looking
statements are based on current assumptions about future events
that may not prove to be accurate. These statements are not
guarantees and are subject to risks, uncertainties and changes in
circumstances that are difficult to predict.
Many factors could cause actual events to differ materially from
these forward-looking statements, including economic conditions in
the United States and globally,
general industry conditions as they may impact us or our customers,
and other important factors disclosed previously and from time to
time in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made
and we undertake no obligation to update or revise any such
statement, except as required by law.
Boeing is the world's largest aerospace company and leading
provider of commercial airplanes, defense, space and security
systems, and global services. As a top U.S. exporter, the company
supports commercial and government customers in more than 150
countries and leverages the talents of a global supplier base.
Building on a legacy of aerospace leadership, Boeing continues to
lead in technology and innovation, deliver for its customers and
invest in its people and future growth.
Contact
media@boeing.com
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SOURCE Boeing