MAIL-IN VOTER BEHAVIOR EVENS OUT ACROSS PARTY ID,
ONLY A 7-POINT GAP BETWEEN DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS (DOWN 12
POINTS FROM NOVEMBER 2020)
85% OF VOTERS SAY CBS SHOULD RELEASE FULL
TRANSCRIPT OF HARRIS 60
MINUTES INTERVIEW
NEW
YORK and CAMBRIDGE,
Mass., Oct. 14, 2024 /PRNewswire/
-- Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the
October Harvard CAPS / Harris
poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American
Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and
the Harris Poll and HarrisX.
The presidential horserace remains close at 49-48, with
Harris leading and up 1 point from
September. Trump, however, leads in battleground states among
registered, likely, and early voters. The poll also covers public
opinion on policy issues and foreign affairs. Download key results
here.
"There is no definitive answer – it's about as close a race as
you can possibly get, well within the confidence interval of any
poll," said Mark Penn, Co-Director
of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll
and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "Harris has lost some momentum from when she
was first nominated but is still driving strong messages around her
personality and some of her economic measures, while Trump leads on
immigration, crime, and foreign policy but has been less effective
on economic messaging."
HORSERACE HAS HARRIS +1 BUT
TRUMP LEADING IN BATTLEGROUND STATES
- 81% of registered voters say they will definitely vote in the
election (Democrat: 85%; Republican: 84%; Independent: 72%).
- Harris holds a 1.7-point lead
among likely voters, but in battleground states, Trump has a
2-point lead among both likely and registered voters.
- There is a 10-point gender gap with female voters favoring
Harris. The gap for Latino voters
has widened from 7 points in September to 17 points (Harris: 54%; Trump: 37%; Don't Know/Unsure:
9%).
- 50% of voters say they will vote on Election Day, 45% say they
will vote early, and 5% do not plan to vote. Mail-in voting
behavior is nearly even across party ID (Democrat: 49%; Republican:
42%; Independent: 44%), markedly different from that in
November 2020 (Democrat: 54%;
Republican: 35%; Independent: 45%).
- Among those voting early, 51% voted for Harris and 43% voted for Trump (in
battleground states, Trump: 48%; Harris: 47%).
- 14% of voters say they are still weighing their choices,
including 25% of Independents.
- Democrats and Republicans remain neck-in-neck in the
congressional election (Democrat: 51%; Republican: 49%).
CANDIDATE STRENGTHS ON THE ISSUES CONTINUE TO VARY
WIDELY
- Trump's perceived policy stances align more with those of the
general public on issues like tougher law enforcement and
opposition to open borders, the switch to electric vehicles, free
healthcare for illegal immigrants, and men who have transitioned to
women competing in women's sports.
- 63% of voters are against a national ban on abortion. Most
believe Harris is against such a
ban (73%, +1 from September) and Trump is for it (54%, -1).
- Though many voters say Harris
is to the left (53%) and Trump is to the right (50%) of them
politically, 59% say they would rather vote for someone to the
right of them.
- Voters believe Trump would do a better job on specific foreign
policy issues like the Ukraine/Russia war (+9), standing up to China (+13), and the Israel/Hamas war (+10) over Harris, and 70% believe he has experience in
foreign affairs. But 51% of voters believe Harris is better equipped to be
commander-in-chief over Trump.
CURRENT EVENTS HAVE MINOR EFFECTS ON CANDIDATE
PERCEPTIONS
- 85% of voters say CBS should release the full transcript of
Harris' 60 Minutes
interview. More broadly, 51% of voters say recent Harris interviews have helped her, and 49% say
they have hurt her (an 8-point gap among Independents, with more
thinking they hurt her).
- Harris holds leads over Trump
on 10 out of 15 presidential characteristics including right
temperament (+15), relates to the working class (+12), and honest
(+10), while Trump is seen as more experienced (+10) and a fighter
(+6).
- 58% of voters say they were satisfied with FEMA's response
to recent hurricanes, and 67% of voters believe FEMA money should
not have gone to housing illegal immigrants.
- 38% of voters say JD Vance won the vice-presidential
debate, while 35% of voters say Tim
Walz won.
- 67% of voters believe billionaires mostly support Trump, while
33% of voters believe they support Harris.
APPROVAL RATINGS AND MOOD OF COUNTRY REMAIN UNCHANGED, WITH
ECONOMY TOP-OF-MIND
- Biden's approval rating sits at 42%, unchanged from the last
three months, while 51% of voters approve of the job Trump did as
President (-1 from September) and 49% approve of the job
Harris is doing as Vice-President
(+2).
- 51% of voters believe they will be better off economically
under a new Trump administration, while 49% hold this belief for a
Harris administration.
- Inflation and immigration remain the top two national issues
for voters, with 46% of voters saying inflation is most important
personally (Democrat: 39%, Republican: 52%; Independent: 47%).
- 61% of voters say the U.S. economy is on the wrong track,
staying relatively consistent since the summer of 2022. 47% of
voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse
(rural: 57%; suburban: 48%; urban: 40%).
VOTERS SUPPORT ISRAEL'S
STRIKES ON HEZBOLLAH AND RESPONSE TO IRAN, BELIEVING IRAN IS A SOURCE OF CONFLICT AND TERROR IN THE
REGION
- 52% of voters say Hezbollah is a terrorist organization,
with 54% of 18-24 y.o. and 46% of 25-34 y.o. voters saying they are
unsure.
- 73% of voters say Iran is a
regional sponsor of terror in the Middle
East and blame Iran over
Israel for escalating conflict,
but 53% of 18-24 y.o. and 46% of 25-34 y.o. voters say
Iran is not a regional sponsor of
terror.
- 63% of voters believe Israel
is justified in responding to the recent Iranian missile attack
(18-24: 45%; 25-34: 50%; 65+: 77%).
- 63% of voters say campus protests in the U.S. are mostly about
saving lives in Gaza rather than
supporting Hamas and Hezbollah.
- 65% of voters say authors who support Hamas and Hezbollah
should not be given airtime on national TV.
The October Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within
the United States on October 11-13, 2024, among 3,145 registered
voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. As part of the sample, 2,596
likely voters and 898 battleground state voters were also
interviewed. Follow the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast at
https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts,
Spotify, and other podcast platforms.
About The Harris Poll & HarrisX
The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm
that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to
inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients
in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate
reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and
earning organic media through public relations research. One of the
longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked
public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and
is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to
transform marketing.
HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data
analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S.
and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100
companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and
philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster
of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
About the Harvard Center for American Political
Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to
and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed
by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and
economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion,
research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S.
politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of
methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and
formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other
Harvard centers to support research
training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global
contexts. More information
at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.
Contact:
Kara Gelber
pr@stagwellglobal.com
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