Massive Mt. Gox Bitcoin Shift Unlikely To Disrupt Prices, Says CryptoQuant CEO
July 09 2024 - 1:00AM
NEWSBTC
Recent developments surrounding the repayment of creditors and
investors of the defunct Bitcoin (BTC) exchange, Mt. Gox, have
sparked concerns about potential effects on Bitcoin’s price.
As the market retraced over 20% from its three-month high above
$70,000, the movement of 47,000 BTC to repay creditors has raised
questions about the market’s stability. However, industry
experts, including CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju and Alex Thorn, head
of research at Galaxy Digital, have offered insights into this
development, suggesting that the impact on BTC’s price may be less
significant than initially feared. Internal Transfers, OTC, And
Brokerage Services Examined Ki Young Ju, in an analysis shared on
social media, outlined three possible scenarios for the BTC
transactions related to creditor repayment. Firstly, an
internal transfer could have taken place to increase security by
changing wallets. Secondly, an over-the-counter (OTC) deal may have
been executed specifically not to impact the market price.
Related Reading: Is This Ethereum ICO Project To Blame For ETH’s
Price Slump? In a third scenario, a brokerage service may have been
used, possibly involving the sale of the BTC after it bypassed
broker wallets and exchanges. Ju mentioned that 1.5K BTC went
to Bitbank, Japan’s largest crypto exchange. Still, no significant
increase in trading volume was observed, indicating that it may not
significantly impact the market. According to Ju’s analysis: If
scenario 3 applies, 94K BTC is available for sell-side liquidity,
but selling this much BTC without on-chain movement is unlikely. If
it’s OTC selling, we’re in the clear. Holding Bitcoin Over USD
Payouts? Alex Thorn of Galaxy Digital offered additional
insight into the Mt. Gox creditor dynamics and their potential
impact on the market, noting that fewer coins may be distributed
than originally anticipated, which could result in less selling
pressure on Bitcoin than the market expects. Thorn noted that
the majority of creditors are long-term Bitcoin enthusiasts with a
“deep understanding” of the technology, for which he believes their
desire to reclaim their coins rather than accept a USD-denominated
payout indicates a strong preference for holding onto their
Bitcoin, which would not contribute to an expected sell-off.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Crashes 5% To Lowest
Level In 3 Months, What Happens Next? In addition, Thorn explained
that the significant capital gains implications of selling BTC may
discourage creditors from liquidating their holdings. Despite
the relatively low recovery rate, Thorn believes the 140x
appreciation since bankruptcy offers significant value to creditors
who may choose to hold on to their coins and expect further price
appreciation. At the time of writing, the leading
cryptocurrency in the market is being traded at $56,300. This
reflects a decrease of over 1.5% within the past 24 hours and a
decline of nearly 20% over the month. Ultimately, it remains to be
seen how the Mt. Gox drama will unfold and how it will or will not
affect the Bitcoin price after more than 10 years of waiting for
creditors to receive their payments. Featured image from DALL-E,
chart from TradingView.com
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