The number of homes for sale in Cape Coral, FL
and North Port, FL surged roughly 50% from a year earlier in
March—more than anywhere else in the country. And in McAllen, TX,
supply jumped 25%.
(NASDAQ: RDFN) — On the west coast of Florida, housing supply is
surging, sellers are cutting their asking prices and the time it
takes to sell a home is soaring—all at a faster rate than anywhere
else in the U.S. The story is similar in parts of Texas. That is
according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the
technology-powered real estate brokerage.
Here’s how these trends showed up in U.S. housing-market data
for March, which covers 85 major metropolitan areas:
- SUPPLY: Of the 10 metro areas that posted the largest
year-over-year increases in supply, six are in Florida and two are
in Texas. Cape Coral, FL saw the biggest jump in homes for
sale (51%), followed by North Port-Sarasota, FL (48%),
Fort Lauderdale, FL (30%), Tampa, FL (29%),
McAllen, TX (25%), Orlando, FL (23%), Knoxville, TN
(23%), Dallas (20%), West Palm Beach, FL (20%) and
Cincinnati (17%).
- PRICE DROPS: Of the 10 metro areas where sellers were
most likely to cut their list prices, five are in Florida and two
are in Texas. In North Port-Sarasota, 48% of listings had a
price cut—the highest share in the country. Next came Tampa
(44%), Indianapolis (43%), Cape Coral (41%), Denver (37%),
Orlando (35%), Portland, OR (34%), Houston (33%),
San Antonio (33%) and Jacksonville, FL (33%).
- PRICES: Median sale prices fell from a year earlier in
three metros, one of which is in Florida and one of which is in
Texas: North Port-Sarasota (-4.6%), Oklahoma City (-1.5%)
and San Antonio (-0.3%). Prices climbed least in Austin,
TX (0%), El Paso, TX (0.5%), Memphis, TN (0.7%),
Tampa (1.1%), Salt Lake City (1.1%), Omaha, NE (1.2%) and
Charleston, SC (1.2%).
- SPEED OF SALES: Of the 10 metros that saw the biggest
upticks in median days on market, two are in Florida and two are in
Texas: In Cape Coral, the typical home took 31 more days to
sell than a year earlier—the largest jump in the nation. Next came
North Port-Sarasota (20), McAllen (20), New Orleans
(18), Tulsa, OK (13), Cincinnati (13), San Antonio (10),
Greensboro, NC (8), Honolulu (7) and Knoxville (7).
Florida and Texas have been building more homes than anywhere
else in the country, partly to accommodate the flood of newcomers
that showed up during the pandemic homebuying boom. But the boom is
over, in part because many people have been priced out. Now, homes
are sitting on the market and price growth is stagnating.
“Out-of-town homebuyers no longer see Florida as a place to get
amazing value. Now they’re moving to North Carolina or Tennessee to
get a good deal. Many local blue-collar workers have been priced
out of homeownership, too,” said Eric Auciello, a local Redfin
sales manager. “Two years ago, the North Port metro was one of the
most competitive housing markets in the country because it was
affordable for remote workers and there was a shortage of homes for
sale, but none of those things are true today. Sarasota, in
particular, has been overvalued for decades, and the chickens have
finally come to roost. The Tampa metro has been faring a bit
better.”
Individual home sellers are having a tough time attracting
buyers in part because builders are offering concessions that are
hard for buyers to refuse. As a result, listings from regular
sellers are sitting on the market. But homes are also sitting
because many sellers are pricing their properties too high, and
then being forced to cut later, Auciello said.
“The sharp ascent in Florida housing prices in recent years has
driven a lot of homeowners to cash in on their equity, but some of
them are having a hard time adjusting to the fact that it’s a
buyer’s market,” Auciello said. “My advice to sellers is to price
your home fairly; the comps from six months ago don’t exist now.
And if you’re a buyer, know that the odds of getting an offer
accepted below market value are pretty high.”
The insurance crisis in Florida is also throwing a wrench into
home purchases and in some cases delaying deals. Nearly
three-quarters of Florida homeowners say they or the area they live
in has been affected by rising home insurance costs or changes in
coverage, a recent Redfin survey found.
“One of our agents is representing a buyer who thought he’d be
able to get insurance for $2,000 per year—the rate the existing
homeowner has. But he found out at the eleventh hour that his
insurance will be $4,000 because the house has had water damage.
We’re seeing sellers offer a lot of concessions to hold deals
together,” said Auciello, whose own home insurance is now $14,000 a
year all in, up from around $8,000 two years ago. “We’re at an
inflection point. A hefty insurance bill isn’t always a big deal
for a luxury buyer, but it can be a really big issue for someone
buying a waterfront home on a smaller budget.”
Connie Durnal, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Dallas,
said her market has also been sluggish.
“Last year was by far the slowest market I’ve seen in my 20
years as a real estate agent,” Durnal said. “Move-up buyers are
almost nonexistent. Even though a lot of homeowners have built up a
ton of equity, many don’t want to sell because their monthly
payment would double or triple due to high mortgage rates.”
Nationwide, New Listings Slowed in March and Prices Rose From
a Year Earlier
New listings dropped 6% month over month in March—the largest
decline on a seasonally adjusted basis since January 2022. They
rose 6% from a year earlier, but that marks a deceleration from the
14% annual gain in February.
New listings may have slowed because mortgage rates are staying
higher longer than expected, which is exacerbating the lock-in
effect. The average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate in March was
6.82%—the highest since December—and the Federal Reserve has warned
that elevated inflation will probably delay the interest-rate cuts
they had been planning this year.
Prices continued to rise, in part because there’s still a
shortage of homes for sale. The median U.S. home sale price rose 5%
year over year in March to $420,357, just 3% below the record high
of $432,496 set in May 2022.
Home sales were roughly flat compared with a month earlier on a
seasonally adjusted basis, and were down 3% from a year
earlier.
March 2024 Highlights: United States
March 2024
Month-Over-Month Change
Year-Over-Year Change
Median sale price
$420,357
2.1%
4.8%
Homes sold, seasonally adjusted
423,273
-0.2%
-2.6%
New listings, seasonally
adjusted
509,405
-6.3%
6.1%
All homes for sale, seasonally adjusted
(active listings)
1,600,310
0.6%
4.3%
Months of supply
2.4
-0.5
0.3
Median days on market
40
-8
-4
Share of for-sale homes with a price
drop
16.3%
1.1 ppts
2.8 ppts
Share of homes sold above final list
price
30.0%
3.8 ppts
1.6 ppts
Average sale-to-final-list-price
ratio
99.2%
0.5 ppts
0.4 ppts
Average 30-year fixed mortgage
rate
6.82%
0.04 ppts
0.28 ppts
To view the full report, including charts and additional
metro-level data, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-tracker-march-2024
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate
company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage,
rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run
the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save
thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying
customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and
title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home
can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our
rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments
and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers
more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100
markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000
people.
Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity
Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and
WalkScore®.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate
agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends
and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to
Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com.
To view Redfin's press center, click here.
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version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240425739544/en/
Redfin Journalist Services: Ally Braun, 206-588-6863
press@redfin.com
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