Edison issues outlook on Atossa Genetics (ATOS)
December 07 2018 - 12:07PM
Atossa Genetics’s (ATOS) endoxifen programs are advancing in their
respective breast health programs. The firm recently reported
positive safety data from its Phase I study on topical endoxifen in
men, and it completed enrolment for its Phase II endoxifen study in
women with elevated mammographic breast density (MBD). It is also
advancing an oral endoxifen formulation in women refractory to
tamoxifen, and is applying its intraductal microcatheter (IDMC)
with cancer drug fulvestrant. Our rNPV-derived equity valuation is
$23.9m, or $3.66 per share.
Atossa had $13.0m net cash at 30 September 2018. We expect its
funds on hand to last into early 2020 and that it will raise $10m
in 2019. For modelling purposes, we assign these financings to
long-term debt. Our rNPV valuation includes the prospect of the
firm’s topical and oral endoxifen programs for women, its
IDMC-delivered fulvestrant program and now its gynecomastia program
as well. We now obtain a lower rNPV valuation of $10.9m (vs $24.4m,
previously), largely due to a lower success probability (4% vs 5%,
previously) for the MBD program. After including Q318 net cash
($13.0m), we obtain an equity valuation of $23.9m, or $3.66 per
fully diluted (FD) share (which assumes full conversion of 3,517
outstanding Series B convertible preferred shares into 1.0m common
shares).
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