TIDMJDW
RNS Number : 9301I
Wetherspoon (JD) PLC
17 December 2020
17 December 2020
J D WETHERSPOON PLC
Annual General Meeting Announcement
Tim Martin, chairman of pub company Wetherspoon, will say at
today's AGM:
"2020 has been an extraordinarily difficult year for many
businesses.
"As the famous investor Ray Dalio has said, "truth is the
essential foundation for good outcomes". Yet the government has
relied on information that has often turned out to be untrue.
"For example, Imperial College research in March, which
precipitated a lockdown in over 100 countries, including the first
major pub closure in history in the UK, was deeply flawed.
"Indeed, lockdowns, the core of the UK's current strategy, have
been shown by many studies to be ineffective, and often
counterproductive. Examples can be found in appendix 1.
"David Nabarro, of the World Health Organisation, has recently
emphasised their destructive effects, especially for the least
well-off.
"In Sweden, a country which didn't lock down, relying mainly on
social distancing and hygiene measures, the mortalities from
Covid-19 were 8% of those predicted by the Imperial model.
"Some UK press stories have deprecated Swedish efforts, but the
facts are often misrepresented (appendix 2).
"In fact, in Sweden, the mortality rate from all causes in 2020
is the same as for four out of the last five years (appendix
2).
"In October, the prediction of Sir Patrick Vallance, chief
scientific adviser, of 4000 deaths per day, upon which the
government instigated a second lockdown, proved to be wildly
inaccurate.
"It seems certain that the biggest flaw in these predictions has
been an overestimation of the fatality rate of Covid-19.
"John Ioannidis, often regarded as the foremost expert in the
area, has estimated that Covid-19 has half the fatality rate of flu
for those under 70 - although this estimate is disputed in some
quarters.
"Professors Johan Giesecke, Carl Heneghan, Sunetra Gupta and
hundreds of others have also criticised Imperial, SAGE and
government policies, as have many health professionals (see the
open letter to the Prime Minister, appendix 3).
"The predictions that have turned out to be true in 2020 relate
to the effects of lockdowns and government actions on the economy
and health.
"Over 800,000 jobs have been lost so far, approximately
equivalent to the combined working populations of the cities of
Manchester and Birmingham. These job losses are bound to rise
sharply in the coming months, without a radical change in
government policy.
"Screenings and treatments for many serious illnesses have been
drastically reduced, as, for example, the charity Macmillan
recently reported (
https://www.macmillan.org.uk/about-us/what-we-do/we-make-change-happen/we-shape-policy/covid-19-impact-cancer-report.html
).
"The situation for pubs is dire. All pubs in the UK (as at 16
December), apart from a handful in remote areas, are effectively
shut.
"Less than half are able to open as restaurants, only serving
alcoholic drinks with a meal - but that is not what pubs were
designed for, and is not usually profitable.
"Since the government often relies on false information, rather
than truth, its outcomes will inevitably be poor.
"The sources of government information, especially SAGE, in
which academics predominate, have often been faulty.
"Due to the conscientious efforts of its employees, bankers and
shareholders, and to the loyalty of millions of customers,
Wetherspoon may be in a better position than some companies and
individuals.
"However, 70% of our premises are shut today, despite
expenditure of many millions in compliance with health regulations.
In addition, over 50 million pub visits have been registered, using
the track and trace system, and there have been no outbreaks of the
virus reported to the company."
Appendix 1 - Examples of studies that show lockdowns to be
ineffective
E Clinical Medicine (Volume 25, August 2020, 100464)
A Country Level Analysis Measuring The Impact of Government
Actions, Country Preparedness and Socio-economic factors on CPOVID
19 Mortality and Health Related Outcomes
Authors: RabaIl Chaudhry, Justynya Bartosz, Sheila Riazi
(Department of Anaesthesiology and Pain Medicine, University of
Toronto)/George Dranitsaris (Department of Haematology, University
of Ioannina, Greece)/Talha Mubashir (Department of Anaesthesiology,
University of Texas, Houston)
Was Germany's Corona Lockdown Necessary? (2020)
Authors: Christof Kuhbandner (University of Regensburg), Stefan
Homburg (University of Hanover), Harald Walach (University of
Poznan and University of Witten-Herdecke), Stefan Hockertz
(University of Hamburg)
Comment on Flaxman et al. 2020, Nature
The illusory effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on
COVID-19 in Europe
Authors: Stefan Homburg (Leibniz University, Hannover) and
Christof Kuhbandner (University of Regensburg)
Did Lockdown Work? An Economist's Cross Country Comparison (2
August 2020)
Authors: Christian Bjornskov (Aarhus University / Research
Institute of Industrial Economics, Stockholm)
Frontiers in Public Health (Volume 8, 19 November 2020,
604339)
A Country Level Analysis Measuring The Impact of Government
Actions, Country Preparedness and Socio-economic factors on CPOVID
19 Mortality and Health Related Outcomes
Authors: RabaIl Chaudhry, Justynya Bartosz, Sheila Riazi -
Department of Anaesthesiology and Pain Medicine, University of
Toronto
George Dranitsaris - Department of Hematology, University of
Ioannina, Greece.
Talha Mubashir - Department of Anesthesiology, University of
Texas, Houston
Appendix 2 - Wetherspoon Press Release, 11 December 2020
Pub company Wetherspoon says that the results of Sweden's
COVID-19 policies have been widely misunderstood.
Wetherspoon chairman Tim Martin said:
"Whatever way you look at the numbers, Sweden's no-lockdown
strategy is working better than the UK's approach.
"According to the respected Worldometer website, Sweden had
1,330 Covid-19 fatalities from 1 November to 9 December, 2020.
"The UK had 16,011 fatalities during the same period. Adjusting
for population, the Swedish fatality rate is just over half that of
the UK during this period (see appendix 2.1).
"In the last week of the period, to 9 December, the average
fatality rate per day was 19 for Sweden and 410 for the UK.
Adjusting for population, the Swedish fatality rate was less than a
third of the UK's (appendix 2.1).
"Although Sweden has had a better outcome, a Daily Mail headline
(7 December) said that a "Lockdown finally looms for Sweden....".
The Swedish Prime Minister has specifically said that this is not
true.
"The Daily Mail article also said that "Sweden's overall death
rate is no worse than in other major countries of Western Europe,
such as Britain and France."
"This is misleading, since the Swedish outcome is evidently far
better than Britain's.
"Also, the news agency Reuters inaccurately reported (2
December) that "Sweden registered 174 deaths" that day.
"In contrast, Worldometer records only 33 deaths for that
day.
"The misleading Reuters' statistics were nonetheless reported as
if they were true by both The Daily Telegraph and the Times, among
other publications.
"In fact, Sweden's annual all-cause mortality rate in 2020 is in
line with the last five years, adjusted for population growth-
although the 2019 mortality rate, as has been widely reported, was
unusually low (appendix 2.2).
"The Swedish outcome is not surprising, since medical studies
have long established that lockdowns don't work.
"As Dr David Nabarro, of the World Health Organisation, recently
said, "We appeal to all world leaders to stop using lockdowns as
your primary method of control" as they "have just one consequence
that you must never belittle and that is making poor people an
awful lot poorer."
"The government and SAGE have tried to marginalise Sweden,
because it makes their ruinously expensive lockdown policies look
absurd.
"Indeed, over 600,000 jobs have already been lost in the
hospitality sector alone- with many more set to be lost in the
coming months.
"It is not clear is why so many media organisations appear to
support the government, by misreporting Sweden's position."
Appendix 2.1
Source: Worldometer
Daily new deaths, Sweden and UK, circa 4pm December 10.
Sweden UK
09-Dec 4 533
------- -------
08-Dec 14 616
------- -------
07-Dec 7 172
------- -------
06-Dec 36 231
------- -------
05-Dec 14 397
------- -------
04-Dec 26 504
------- -------
03-Dec 29 414
------- -------
02-Dec 33 648
------- -------
01-Dec 32 603
------- -------
30-Nov 47 205
------- -------
29-Nov 38 213
------- -------
28-Nov 35 479
------- -------
27-Nov 43 521
------- -------
26-Nov 53 497
------- -------
25-Nov 66 696
------- -------
24-Nov 67 607
------- -------
23-Nov 54 206
------- -------
22-Nov 56 398
------- -------
21-Nov 50 341
------- -------
20-Nov 44 510
------- -------
19-Nov 45 501
------- -------
18-Nov 50 529
------- -------
17-Nov 40 598
------- -------
16-Nov 37 213
------- -------
15-Nov 39 168
------- -------
14-Nov 37 462
------- -------
13-Nov 32 376
------- -------
12-Nov 28 563
------- -------
11-Nov 27 595
------- -------
10-Nov 35 532
------- -------
09-Nov 35 194
------- -------
08-Nov 22 156
------- -------
07-Nov 26 413
------- -------
06-Nov 25 355
------- -------
05-Nov 22 378
------- -------
04-Nov 21 492
------- -------
03-Nov 19 397
------- -------
02-Nov 20 136
------- -------
01-Nov 22 162
------- -------
Total 1,330 16,011
------- -------
Since 1 November:
Sweden UK
Daily Average 34 411
----------- -----------
Population 10,127,530 69,045,834
----------- -----------
Adj Per Capita 232 411
----------- -----------
7 Days to 9 December:
Sweden UK
Daily Average 19 410
----------- -----------
Population 10,127,530 69,045,834
----------- -----------
Adj per Capita 127 410
----------- -----------
Appendix 2.2
Source:
Statista: Deaths
Worldometer: Population
Number of deaths in Sweden from 2015 to 2020.
(Annualising 2020 results in 93,855 deaths.)
Deaths Population Rate
2015 90,907 9,764,950 0.93%
------- ----------- ------
2016 90,982 9,836,007 0.92%
------- ----------- ------
2017 91,972 9,904,896 0.93%
------- ----------- ------
2018 92,185 9,971,638 0.92%
------- ----------- ------
2019 88,766 10,036,379 0.88%
------- ----------- ------
2020 93,855 10,127,530 0.93%
------- ----------- ------
Appendix 3 - Open Letter From Health Professionals And
Scientists To The Prime Minister
" We the undersigned British health professionals and
scientists, wish to express our serious concern about the current
situation regarding the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The
management of the crisis has become disproportionate and is now
causing more harm than good.
We urge policy makers to remember that this pandemic, like all
pandemics, will eventually pass but the social and psychological
damage that it is causing, risks becoming permanent.
We call for restoration of our normal democratic governance and
for politicians to be independently and critically informed in the
decision-making process. After the initial justifiable response to
Covid-19, the evidence base now shows a different picture. We have
the knowledge to enable a policy that protects the elderly and
vulnerable without increasing all other health and economic harms
and which is not at the expense our whole way of life and
particularly that of the nation's children.
'First do no harm' is a basic tenet of medical ethics,
understanding that a cure must never be worse than the disease
itself. However, there is increasing evidence that the collateral
damage now being caused to the population will have a far greater
impact in the short and long term, on all sections of the
population, than the number of people now being safeguarded from
Covid-19. In our opinion, the current measures, and the strict
penalties for non-compliance, are contrary to the values formulated
by Public Health England, which states, 'We exist to protect and
improve the nation's health and wellbeing, and reduce health
inequalities'.
We have somehow reached a situation where the whole of life in
Britain, as in many countries, has focused on a single condition
and one which is now endemic. 'Zero' Covid is not a realistic
option in a global world. In this letter, we highlight many other
areas of health and well-being that are now largely overlooked. We
also look at an alternative strategy which we believe can best
protect the vulnerable, whilst allowing most people to return to
near normal life and provide references to just some of the many
scientific papers which explain why we have reached this
conclusion.
Our current knowledge about covid-19
At the beginning of the pandemic, the WHO predicted a disease
that if uncontained would spread to maybe 50% of the world's
population claiming 3.4% victims, in other words millions of deaths
by a highly contagious novel virus for which no pre-existing
immunity or vaccine was available. Measures were understandable and
widely supported, as there was concern that unprecedented pressure
would be placed on our hospitals. Thus, the stated purpose of the
initial lockdown was to "flatten the curve" and protect the NHS.
Hospitals rose to the occasion, Nightingale Hospitals were built,
no one died for lack of intensive care facilities - a huge credit
to the staff of the NHS.
Gradually, as our knowledge has accumulated, it has become clear
that objective facts show a different reality. The known global
infection rate to date stands at less than 1% of the world
population. The true mortality rate is also over-estimated as we
now know that many people have very mild or no symptoms and were
thus not included in the testing regime at the start of the
pandemic in the UK or elsewhere. We also know that serious disease
and indeed death are linked to older age and pre-existing health
conditions, so it is on protecting this group that we should be
concentrating.
It has also become clearer that the pandemic has not exhibited
truly exponential growth; rather, it has been shown to follow a
classic Gompertz curve from the very early stages of each outbreak.
The Gompertz curve is used as the classic model of population
dynamics in conditions where there is some limiting factor to the
rate of growth. In the case of Covid-19 this observation supports
the theory that a level of pre-existing immunity was present in the
population prior to lockdown, thus limiting the spread of
infection. This pre-existing immunity is probably due to immunity
to common cold viruses which, in 40-60% of individuals, is thought
to give some protection against Sars-CoV-2. In addition, we now
know that exposure to the virus, even without symptoms, generates
robust cellular immunity that is likely to have a long duration.
Consequently, measurements of antibody prevalence in populations
almost certainly give a serious underestimate of both exposure and
immunity. It is vital we build on this immunity that is developing
naturally in the population. Perversely population lockdowns could
impede this process. Indeed, new evidence published this week,
reports the potential increase in total deaths resulting from
school and university closures. We also know a lot more about
effective ways to treat Covid-19, such as early use of anticlotting
agents and dexamethasone, plus avoidance of invasive ventilation.
Evidence from both Germany and the UK show a significantly lower
in-hospital mortality rate in the later stages of the epidemic.
Waiting for a vaccine
This would appear to be the government's main exit plan and is a
strategy fraught with risk. We do not know when, or even if, an
effective vaccine will become available. Any vaccine is unlikely to
give complete protection against the virus and any protection may
only be of short duration. A vaccine is also unlikely to provide
superior protection to immunity that is developing naturally. Thus,
a vaccine is only one tool to help limit viral spread and alone
will not eliminate the disease. We feel these facts have not been
made clear to the general public, many of whom view a vaccine as a
simple solution to the pandemic.
Widely publicised data is exaggerating the current risk
Widespread population testing using PCR is distorting the
current risk. Use of such a test in a clinical situation (as in
pillar 1) was very helpful as a rapid screen but the testing
strategy now seems to be driving policy. The problem of functional
false positive rates has still not been addressed and particularly
in the context of low prevalence of disease whereby false positives
are likely to exceed true positives substantially and moreover
correlate poorly with the person being infectious. Alongside this
we have the issue that it is normal to see an increase in illness
and deaths during the winter months. This is well known in the case
of pneumonia and influenza. Any increase in positive cases and
deaths therefore needs to be presented in the context of the normal
seasonal illness/death rate. It is notable that UK death rate is
currently sitting around average for this time of year. The use of
the term 'second wave' is therefore misleading.
Adverse consequences of current measures in adults
Social isolation has led to an increase in depression, anxiety,
suicides, intra-family violence and child abuse. Fear and
persistent stress have a proven negative influence on psychological
and general health. Yet fear seems to be the main strategy for
inducing compliance with government measures, whether fear of
contagion, fear of prosecution or indeed calling on neighbours to
report transgressors to the police, leading to further societal
fracturing. The way in which Covid-19 has been portrayed by
politicians and the media has done little to promote well-being.
Metaphors invoking war and an invisible enemy have been widespread,
together with phrases such as 'care heroes in the front line' and
'corona victims', fueling the idea that we are dealing with a
global 'killer virus'. Pervasive 'stay safe' messages give the
impression that normal life has become perilously dangerous. The
relentless daily presentation of the rising death toll was
unleashed on the population in March, without interpreting those
figures, without comparing them to flu deaths in other years,
without comparing them to deaths from other causes. As death rates
fell, the media swapped to highlighting rising 'cases'. This
coverage has induced unparalleled levels of fear in the population
and, in particular, indoctrinates young children with a negative
and
potentially damaging narrative. Widespread use of masks may well
be adding to fear but this is not being considered, despite limited
scientific evidence of benefit.
The NHS has been all but shut to non-Covid conditions and delays
in diagnosis have been highlighted in general practice and this is
beginning to be revealed in rising waiting lists for cancer
diagnosis and treatment and excess non-Covid deaths. Moreover, the
huge adverse effect on the economy and people's livelihoods will
have its own effect on increasing poverty and the health
consequences of that, widening the gap between rich and poor.
Adverse effects on children and young people
As a demographic, children are disproportionately affected by
the restrictions. Effects on children are particularly concerning
especially knowing their extremely low likelihood of serious
disease and the small part they play in viral transmission. The
Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health has reported delays
in referral for diabetes, cancer and child protection issues.
Development and growth are also hampered through reduced social and
family interaction, exacerbated by the 'Rule of 6'. Reduced access
to learning in schools, educational groups, extra-curricular
activities, sport, nurseries and baby classes, all impact on
children's physical health and on their mental health. Parents at
many primary schools are now being asked to wear masks when
collecting their children, so despite spending months explaining
that this virus is not dangerous to kids or young adults, we are
graphically showing them the reverse, adding to levels of fear.
Widespread and excessive testing in educational settings is
having an additional impact, exacerbating these issues. The parent
group UsforThem has evidence of wide variation in how
self-isolation rules are applied, with some schools sending home
children with minor coughs and colds who are then refused re-entry
to school without a negative test. Whole year groups are sometimes
being sent home for a single 'positive' test but with no knowledge
whether the child in question is truly infectious. The emotional,
physical and economic impact of such measures on young people and
families is unparalleled.
Lack of leadership and varied interpretation of guidance by
individual educational settings, has resulted in the adoption of
disproportionate Covid measures in large numbers of schools,
nurseries and other childcare settings. Many of them raise serious
issues of child welfare and safeguarding. The lack of any credible
milestones to return to normal, cast-iron, full-time schooling,
risks causing irreversible harm to the socio-educational prospects
of a generation of children.
Another way forward
At present, there appears to be no clear exit strategy, other
than waiting for a vaccine. It is clear that this virus has become
endemic, yet current 'protective' measures are causing avoidable
and likely long-term harm to society as a whole. People's health,
quality of life and livelihoods are in peril for a disease with a
mortality rate comparable to many other diseases that befall
us.
We welcome the proposals by many respected medical professionals
in recent open letters in this regard and we ask the government to
urgently consider the following strategy:
1. Acceptance that Covid-19 will remain as one of several winter viruses.
2. Public restrictions should be informed by a broad range of
independent scientific and medical views, assessed on a benefit to
harm ratio and debated in parliament before implementation.
3. Urgently address the unreliability of PCR testing, by
adhering to a published cycle threshold cut-off. Discontinue
testing of asymptomatic adults and mildly symptomatic children.
4. Produce a balanced long-term sustainable plan for dealing with NHS winter pressures.
5. Consider fully the impact on children, young adults and
family life in consultation with those who have the welfare of
these groups at heart.
6. Provide factual balanced and contextual advice to the public
which allows individuals to manage their own risk.
7. Concentrate efforts on supporting and protecting the most
vulnerable. For example, urgently identify health or social care
facilities where COVID infected patients can convalesce until no
longer infectious, thus avoiding early discharge to care homes.
8. Encourage the return to normal life for the less vulnerable
members of society with the understanding that this will help to
generate population immunity and thus suppress the spread of the
virus in the longer term.
We urge policy makers to remember that this pandemic, like all
pandemics, will eventually pass but the social and psychological
damage that it is causing, risks becoming permanent.
Authors:
Dr Rosamond Jones , MBBS, MD, FRCPCH (paediatrician,
grandparent, #UsforThem)
Dr Charlotte R Bell , MA, VetMB, PhD, MRCVS (immunologist,
veterinary surgeon, parent)
Malcolm Loudon , MB ChB, MD, FRCSEd, FRCS, MIHM (consultant
surgeon, parent)
Christine Padgham , MSc (medical physicist, parent)
Co-signatories:
Professor Ellen Townsend , Professor of psychology, University
of Nottingham, Reachwell.org
Professor Anthony Brookes , Department of Genetics & Genome
Biology, University of Leicester
Professor Anthony Fryer , Professor of Clinical Biochemistry,
University of Keele
Professor David Livermore , Professor of Medical Microbiology,
University of East Anglia
Professor David King , Emeritus professor of clinical
psychopharmacology
Professor David Paton , Professor of Economics, University of
Nottingham
Co-signatories
Professor Keith Willison , Professor of Chemical Biology,
Imperial College, London
Professor Kenneth Strain , Professor of Physics, Glasgow
University
Professor Martin Evison , Emeritus Professor of Pathology
Professor Mike Hulme , Professor of Human Geography, University
of Cambridge
Professor Richard Ennos , Professor of Biological Sciences,
Edinburgh University
Professor Stephen Cooper , Professor of Psychiatry, retired.
Grandparent "
Ends.
Enquiries:
John Hutson Chief Executive Officer 01923 477777
Ben Whitley Finance Director 01923 477777
Eddie Gershon Company spokesman 07956 392234
Please email any questions to
investorqueries@jdwetherspoon.co.uk
Notes to editors
1. J D Wetherspoon owns and operates pubs throughout the UK and
Ireland. The Company aims to provide customers with good-quality
food and drink, served by well-trained and friendly staff, at
reasonable prices. The pubs are individually designed, and the
Company aims to maintain them in excellent condition.
2. Visit our website: www.jdwetherspoon.com
3. This announcement has been prepared solely to provide
additional information to the shareholders of J D Wetherspoon, to
meet the requirements of the FCA's Disclosure and Transparency
Rules. It should not be relied on by any other party, for any other
purposes. Forward-looking statements have been made by the
directors in good faith, using information available up until the
date on which they approved this statement. Forward-looking
statements should be regarded with caution, because of the inherent
uncertainties in economic trends and business risks.
4. This announcement contains inside information on J D
Wetherspoon plc.
5. The current financial year comprises 52 trading weeks to 25
July 2021.
6. The next trading update is expected to be the Company's
trading update on 20 January 2021.
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