Fund Managers Turning To Brazil's Small-, Mid-Cap Stocks
May 28 2009 - 4:48PM
Dow Jones News
With Brazil's economy showing signs of a turnaround, investors
are getting bullish on small- and mid-capitalization companies as a
way to diversify from more familiar names.
"When you go and talk to European institutional investors, they
tell you they want less exposure to commodity companies and more
exposure to companies serving domestic consumers," said Mohamed
Mourabet, manager of Victoire Capital, a $250 million
asset-management firm in Sao Paulo, Brazil's financial capital.
Although still facing a recession because of the global crisis,
Brazil's domestic economy has been surprisingly resilient, with
consumer credit volume expanding modestly and income levels
stable.
Brazil is famous for its bellwether commodity stocks, from oil
major Petrobras (PBR) to mining companies such as Vale (VALE). But
now smaller companies that benefit from solid domestic consumer
demand are also likely to prosper.
However, exposure to the small names is hard to come by. None of
them have American Depositary Receipts, despite being some of the
biggest retail brands in the country like Lojas Renner
(LREN3.BR).
Brazilian asset managers have been able to fill the void, by
creating portfolios for qualified, foreign institutional investors
looking to invest in locally-focused stocks.
Investors are starting to pile in, but the bigger trend is still
a year or more away, said Mourabet.
Yet, according to equity analysts at Citibank, emerging-market
small caps have outperformed large caps so far this month.
In a report Wednesday, Citigroup analysts said international
investors are going into less liquid names, a sign that "the rally
is real and that regional economies are close to their trough."
Brazil is an "overweight" for small- and mid-cap investors.
So far this year, the iShares Brazil BM&FBovespa Small Cap
index is up 67% in dollar terms, beating the Ibovespa stock index
in Sao Paulo by five percentage points.
The iShares Brazil MSCI Index exchange traded fund (EWZ) is up
55% since Jan. 1.
Two weeks ago, the Van Eck Global fund opened the first-ever
Brazil Small-Cap ETF (BRF). It's up 4.24% this week, slightly
trailing the iShares Brazil ETF, which is up 4.92% since
Monday.
"Brazil's small- and mid-cap names still trade at a big discount
to their peers because of risk perception, so these are high beta
bets," said Ed Kuczma, a Van Eck analyst.
"But when you really consider where the risk has come from over
the last 10 months, it's been in the U.S. and Europe. No Brazilian
banks or companies have failed," he added.
During past economic crises, Brazil was affected by its high
foreign debt levels. Today, Brazil is a net lender with around $205
billion in foreign reserves. While other emerging markets have
funded growth by debt, Brazil has maintained a steady growth rate
of around 4% during the 2004-2007 period, according to government
numbers.
Van Eck's newest edition to the emerging-market exchange-traded
fund world is overweight on "consumer discretionary" and
"industrials" when compared to the MSCI Brazil index.
Its top picks include home builder Cyrela Brazil Realty
(CYRE3.BR) and utility Eletropaulo (ELPL6.BR), which has seen
increases in residential and commercial electricity demand.
Brazil's small-cap stocks are also trading at multiples well
below their peers. Rental car agency Localiza (RENT3.BR) is trading
at six and a half times its earnings before interest taxes
depreciation and amortization. Avis (CAR) in the U.S. is trading at
19-times Ebitda and is in a contracting market.
"Institutional investors and sovereign wealth funds that are
looking long-term want access to alternative, under-researched
names," said Mourabet. Around 70% of Victoire's assets are from
European and Middle East pension funds, and "all of them are
holding small- and mid-cap companies," Mourabet added.
-By Kenneth Rapoza, Dow Jones Newswires, 5511-2847-4541,
kenneth.rapoza@dowjones.com