WINNIPEG, Oct. 15, 2018 /CNW/ - (TSX: NFI) NFI Group
Inc. ("NFI"), the largest bus and motor coach manufacturer and
parts distributor in North
America, today announced its deliveries, order activity and
backlog update for the 13-week period ended September 30, 2018 ("Q3 2018"). Year-over-year
comparisons reported in this release compare Q3 2018 to the 13-week
period ended October 1, 2017 ("Q3
2017") and previous quarter comparisons compare Q3 2018 to the
13-week period ended July 1, 2018
("Q2 2018").
Deliveries, Order Activity, and Option Expiry
NFI delivered 1,035 equivalent units ("EUs") in Q3 2018, an
increase of 158 EUs compared to Q3 2017 and a decrease of 124 EUs
from Q2 2018. NFI's last twelve months ("LTM") deliveries as at the
end of Q3 2018 were 4,255 EUs, up 502 EUs from LTM Q3 2017. The
third quarter of each fiscal year is typically a seasonally slower
period, particularly in the motor coach business, and planned
summer shutdowns at the facilities of New Flyer and Motor Coach
Industries ("MCI") further reduce deliveries in the third quarter
of each year. Total inventory at September
30, 2018 decreased 19 EUs from the previous quarter to 571
EUs.
NFI Deliveries
(EUs)
|
|
Heavy-Duty
Transit
(New
Flyer)
|
Motor
Coaches
(MCI)
|
Cutaway and
Medium-Duty
(ARBOC
Specialty
Vehicles
"ARBOC")
|
Total
|
Q3 2017
|
664
|
213
|
-
|
877
|
Q3
2018
|
692
|
215
|
128
|
1,035
|
LTM Q3
2017
|
2,687*
|
1,066
|
-
|
3,753
|
LTM Q3
2018
|
2,797
|
1,035
|
423
|
4,255
|
* Heavy-Duty Transit
LTM Q3 2017 deliveries include 64 EUs from MiDi bus sales of the
discontinued joint venture with Alexander Dennis
|
NFI's new orders in Q3 2018 totaled 757 EUs, which included firm
orders of 409 EUs (valued at $194.2
million) and option orders of 348 EUs (valued at
$143.2 million). In addition, 274
option EUs were converted to firm orders (valued at $144.4 million).
Total reported orders do not include 249 EUs of new firm and
option orders that were pending at the end of the quarter, where
approval of the award to NFI had been made by the customer's board,
council, or commission, as applicable, but purchase documentation
had not yet been received by NFI and are therefore not yet included
in the backlog.
NFI's LTM Q3 2018 Book-to-Bill ratio (defined as new firm and
option orders divided by deliveries) was 128%, the same ratio as
LTM Q3 2017. The LTM Book-to-Bill ratio has been greater than 100%
for 18 consecutive quarters.
|
New
Orders
in Quarter
(Firm
and Option EUs)
|
New
Orders
LTM (Firm and
Option EUs)
|
Option EUs
Converted in
Quarter to Firm
|
Option EUs
Converted LTM
to Firm
|
Q3
2017
|
1,634
|
4,822
|
559
|
1,763
|
Q4
2017
|
2,520
|
5,820
|
238
|
1,404
|
Q1
2018
|
736
|
5,848
|
441
|
1,627
|
Q2
2018
|
1,413
|
6,303
|
505
|
1,743
|
Q3
2018
|
757
|
5,426
|
274
|
1,458
|
The majority of public transit contracts, bid by both New Flyer
and MCI, have a term of five years and include both firm orders and
options. The following table shows the number of option EUs that
have been exercised or expired annually over the past five years,
as well as the current backlog of options that will expire each
year, if not exercised.
In
EUs
|
2013
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
YTD
|
2019
|
2020
|
2021
|
2022
|
2023
|
A. Options
Expired
|
1,094
|
965
|
504
|
550
|
331
|
740
|
|
|
|
|
|
B. Options
Exercised
|
601
|
1,149
|
1,339
|
2,064
|
1,404
|
1,220
|
|
|
|
|
|
C. Remaining
Options by year
of expiry
|
|
|
|
|
|
11
|
1,301
|
1,243
|
1,824
|
2,396
|
912
|
D. Conversion
Rate % = B /
(A+B)
|
35%
|
54%
|
73%
|
79%
|
81%
|
62%
|
|
|
|
|
|
NFI's option conversion rate is lower in 2018, primarily driven
by expired five-year contracts with three customers who no longer
required the contracted specific size/propulsion configurations,
where options were not assignable to other transit agencies due to
revised Federal Transit Administration guidelines post award.
Total Backlog and 2018 Production
At the end of Q3 2018, NFI's total backlog was 11,110 EUs
(valued at $5.51 billion) compared to
11,685 EUs (valued at $5.80 billion)
at the end of Q2 2018, and 10,537 EUs (valued at $5.39 billion) at the end of Q3 2017.
Total Backlog
(EUs)
|
Firm
Orders
|
Options
|
Total
|
Ending backlog at Q2
2018
New orders in Q3
2018
Options exercised in Q3 2018
Deliveries in Q3
2018
Cancelled/expired
options in Q3 2018
|
3,779
409
274
(1,035)
(4)
|
7,906
348
(274)
-
(293)
|
11,685
757
-
(1,035)
(297)
|
Ending Backlog at
Q3 2018
|
3,423
|
7,687
|
11,110
|
Total Backlog
(EUs)
|
Firm
Orders
|
Options
|
Total
|
$B
US
|
Heavy-Duty
Transit Buses
|
2,806
|
6,678
|
9,484
|
4.740
|
Motor
Coaches
|
444
|
1,009
|
1,453
|
0.748
|
Cutaway and
Medium-Duty Buses
|
173
|
-
|
173
|
0.021
|
Ending Backlog at
Q3 2018
|
3,423
|
7,687
|
11,110
|
5.509
|
NFI's total backlog consists of buses sold primarily to public
customers. The majority of the backlog relates to New Flyer transit
buses for public clients with some contribution from MCI and ARBOC.
Options for ARBOC vehicles are held by dealers, rather than the
operator, and are not included as an option in the NFI backlog.
Transit buses and motor coaches incorporating clean propulsion
systems, including compressed natural gas ("CNG"), diesel-electric
hybrid, and zero-emission buses and motor coaches ("ZEBs", which
consist of trolley-electric, fuel cell-electric and
battery-electric buses), represent approximately 43.0% of the total
backlog. ZEBs represent approximately 4.3% of total backlog.
Parts Activity
Total shipments by NFI Parts for Q3 2018 increased by 7.2%
compared to Q3 2017 and decreased by 4.1% compared to the previous
quarter. Gross orders received by NFI Parts in Q3 2018 decreased by
8.3% over Q3 2017 and decreased by 10.3% compared to Q2 2018.
The lower order intake in the third quarter was largely due to
less bid activity in the period. NFI Parts win rates during the
third quarter were within historical ranges.
ARBOC aftermarket parts orders and shipments are not included in
these figures as they are not material.
Market Demand and Outlook
NFI's Bid Universe metric reports active public-sector
competitions in Canada and
the United States ("U.S.") and
provides an overall indicator of active bid activity and expected
heavy-duty transit bus and motor coach market demand. It is a
point-in-time snapshot of: (i) EUs in active competitions, defined
as all requests for proposals received and in process of review
plus bids submitted and awaiting customer action, and (ii)
management's forecast based on public customer projections of
expected EUs to be placed out for competition over the next five
years.
At the end of Q3 2018, active EUs were 3,278 and the total Bid
Universe was 21,362 EUs. The Bid Universe EUs may fluctuate
significantly from quarter-to-quarter based on public client
tender, procurement and award processes.
In
EUs
|
Bids in
Process
|
Bids
Submitted
|
Total
Active
|
Forecast New
Procurements
over next 5 Years
|
Total Bid
Universe
|
Q3
2017
|
1,541
|
5,072
|
6,613
|
14,303
|
20,916
|
Q4
2017
|
3,091
|
1,687
|
4,778
|
16,406
|
21,184
|
Q1
2018
|
2,974
|
3,479
|
6,453
|
17,186
|
23,639
|
Q2
2018
|
1,319
|
2,391
|
3,710
|
18,440
|
22,150
|
Q3
2018
|
955
|
2,323
|
3,278
|
18,084
|
21,362
|
Procurement of heavy-duty transit buses and motor coaches by the
public sector is typically accomplished through formal multi-year
contracts, while procurement by the private sector is typically
made on a transactional basis. As a result, NFI does not publish a
Bid Universe metric for private sector buses or motor coaches.
Cutaway and medium-duty buses manufactured by ARBOC are
typically sold on a transactional basis through third party dealers
who hold contracts directly with the operators. Bids are
submitted by and contracts are held with non-exclusive dealers and
therefore cutaway and medium-duty bus activity is also not included
in the NFI Bid Universe metric.
Management continues to expect bus procurement activity by
public agencies throughout the U.S. and Canada to remain robust based on an aging
fleet, healthy overall economic conditions, defined federal
funding, expected customer fleet replacement plans, and active or
anticipated procurements. Management continues to anticipate stable
private sector demand for motor coaches through 2018. Management
also believes the demand for low-floor cutaway and medium-duty
buses with greater accessibility will grow from current levels and
that ARBOC will be a beneficiary of this increased demand.
Based on NFI's master production schedule combined with current
backlog and orders anticipated to be awarded by customers under new
procurements, management now expects to deliver 4,390 EUs in fiscal
2018, an increase of 562 EUs over fiscal 2017 and an increase of 40
EUs from previously reported expected deliveries. With year-to-date
2018 deliveries of 3,187 EUs, management expects to deliver the
remaining EUs in the fourth quarter of 2018. This represents
approximately 27% of full year deliveries and is an increase of 135
EUs over the fourth quarter of 2017.
NFI's 2018 deliveries are expected to comprise of the following
vehicle types:
Heavy-Duty
Transit
|
Motor
Coach
|
Cutaway and
Medium-Duty
|
Total
|
2,810
EU
|
1,070
EU
|
510
EU
|
4,390
EU
|
Due to the nature of the parts business, parts sales remain
difficult to forecast with typical quarter-to-quarter volatility
for this segment of the business being a factor.
USMCA, Commodity Price Increases, Tariffs and
Surtaxes
On September 30, 2018 the federal
governments of the United States,
Mexico and Canada announced that the trilateral free
trade agreement entitled The United
States – Mexico – Canada
Agreement ("USMCA") had been reached in principle to replace the
previous North American Free Trade Agreement ("NAFTA").
Management does not anticipate any material impact arising from any
of the changes in the USMCA from NAFTA to NFI's business. NFI
manufactured products exceed the regional value content
requirements under USMCA, which will allow them to move across the
Canada – U.S. border duty-free, if
the USMCA is ratified as proposed. NFI considers the new agreement
to be a positive outcome that will continue to support the NFI
integrated production operations for many years.
The previously announced Section 232 U.S. federal tariffs on
Canadian steel and aluminum imported into the U.S. and the
Government of Canada's surtaxes on
certain U.S. steel and aluminum imported into Canada remain in effect. The majority of
the aluminum and steel used at NFI's manufacturing facilities are
from U.S. sources, largely to meet Buy America requirements of U.S.
public customers. Canadian surtaxes on the importation of U.S.
aluminum and steel used in manufacturing products at NFI's Canadian
plants that are then re-exported to the U.S., are eligible for full
recovery under the current Canadian federal Duty Relief and Duty
Drawback Programs ("DRP").
NFI uses aluminum, carbon steel and stainless steel in the
manufacture of bus and coach frames. However, these raw materials,
before processing, comprise less than 3% of total material costs.
Management continues to anticipate an immaterial impact for the
remainder of 2018 from current market increases in aluminum and
steel pricing in major components, because such components are
purchased under fixed price or contract specific quotations.
Management anticipates that any future component cost increases
should be substantially recoverable through new contract pricing or
through the producer price index (PPI) mechanisms in public
customer multiyear contracts.
NOTE: All dollar amounts in this release are stated in U.S.
currency. Canadian dollar amounts have been converted based on an
exchange rate of U.S. $1.00 = CAD
$1.2945 to calculate the value of the
Canadian contracts in this release. One equivalent unit ("EU")
represents one 30-foot, 35-foot or 40-foot heavy-duty transit bus,
one medium-duty bus, one low-floor cutaway bus or one motor coach.
An articulated transit bus, which is an extra long transit bus
(approximately 60-feet in length), composed of two passenger
compartments connected by a joint mechanism represents two EUs.
About NFI Group Inc.
With nearly 6,000 team members, operating from 31 facilities
across Canada and the United States, NFI is North America's largest bus manufacturer
providing a comprehensive suite of mass transportation solutions
under several brands: New Flyer® (heavy-duty
transit buses), ARBOC® (low-floor cutaway and
medium-duty buses), MCI® (motor coaches), and NFI
Parts™ (parts, support, and service). NFI buses incorporate the
widest range of drive systems available including: clean diesel,
natural gas, diesel-electric hybrid, and zero-emission electric
(trolley, battery, and fuel cell). For the fiscal year ended
December 31, 2017, NFI posted
revenues of U.S. $2.4 billion.
Further information is available at www.nfigroup.com,
www.newflyer.com, www.mcicoach.com and www.arbocsv.com. The common
shares of NFI are traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the
symbol NFI.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements relating
to expected future events and financial and operating results of
NFI that involve risks and uncertainties. Such forward-looking
statements include statements with respect to market demand for
buses and motor coaches, outlook of the bus, motor coach and parts
businesses, NFI's expected deliveries in 2018 and the impact of the
USMCA, commodity price increases, tariffs and surtaxes.
Although the forward-looking statements contained in this press
release are based upon what management believes to be reasonable
assumptions, investors cannot be assured that actual results will
be consistent with these forward-looking statements, and the
differences may be material. Actual results may differ materially
from management expectations as reflected in such forward-looking
statements for a variety of reasons, including order activity
levels from customers, ability of NFI to fulfill its production
schedule, changes to the cost of materials, impact of trade
agreements and developments relating to cross-border tariffs and
surtaxes, including the continued availability of the DRP, market
and general economic conditions and economic conditions of and
funding availability for customers to purchase buses and to
purchase parts or services, customers may not exercise options to
purchase additional buses, the ability of customers to suspend or
terminate contracts for convenience and those other risks and
uncertainties discussed in the materials filed with the Canadian
securities regulatory authorities and available on SEDAR at
www.sedar.com. NFI disclaims any intention or obligation to update
or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of
new information, future events or otherwise, unless required by
applicable law.
SOURCE NFI Group Inc.