DALLAS, Oct. 1, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's
Michigan Economic Activity Index increased in July to a level of
95.1. July's reading was 8 points or 10 percent higher than the
cyclical low. The index averaged 117.7 points for all of 2019, 0.9
points below the index average for 2018. June's index reading was
revised to 86.7.
Our state economic activity indexes all showed a rebound in
economic activity in July. The rebound is dampened somewhat because
of the smoothing process that we use to reduce the volatility
inherent in some regional economic data. We expect to see an
ongoing strong rebound in the August state economic activity
indexes. In July, eight out of nine sub-indexes were positive for
Michigan. This was the strongest
performance since last February when all nine components showed
gains. The positive contributors for July were nonfarm payrolls,
unemployment insurance claims (inverted), housing starts,
industrial electricity demand, light vehicle production, total
state trade, hotel occupancy and state sales tax revenue. Only the
house price sub-index was negative for the month. Michigan, along with many other states, saw an
uptick in coronavirus cases in September. This represents a
significant downside risk factor for the state economy this fall
and winter. Increasing cases in other states also represents a risk
factor for Michigan to the extent
that they are a weight on auto sales. Light vehicle sales were
stable in July and August, near a 15.0 million unit rate, well
below the peak 18.7 million unit sales rate from August 2019. California has just announced that they will
ban sales of new gasoline powered cars in 2035. This will add to
the push toward electrification of the industry, which will result
in a significant reduction in the amount of labor needed per
vehicle assembly.
The Michigan Economic Activity Index consists of nine variables,
as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for
unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index,
industrial electricity sales, auto assemblies, total trade, hotel
occupancy and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index
levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.
Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA) is a financial services
company headquartered in Dallas,
Texas, and strategically aligned by three business segments:
The Commercial Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth Management.
Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping people and
businesses be successful. In addition to Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in
Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in
several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico. Comerica reported total assets of
$84 billion at June 30, 2020.
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http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter:
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank