TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts New Car Auto Sales for March 2020 and the First Quarter
March 27 2020 - 9:00AM
ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar, and the industry benchmark for
determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects total
new vehicle sales will reach 941,735 units in March 2020, down 37%
from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total
light vehicle sales is an estimated 10.7 million units. Excluding
fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and
light trucks to be 656,343 units, a decrease of 38% from a year ago
when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
“March is traditionally a strong retail month and was off to a
good start. As we inched closer to the middle of the month and the
Coronavirus was declared a global pandemic, that triggered
unprecedented protective measures from local and federal
governments, and we began to see a stark drop in auto sales,” said
Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst at ALG.
“Economic uncertainty, coupled with health and safety concerns,
have made consumers hesitant to visit dealer showrooms and make
large purchases,” added Lyman. “However, the industry is rapidly
pivoting to remote retailing practices and automakers and lenders
have launched deferment programs and steep incentives to help ease
consumer apprehensions. These offerings should help buoy demand a
bit in the short-term.”
Additional Insights: (Forecast by ALG)
- Total retail sales for March 2020 are expected to be down 37%
from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling
days.
- Fleet sales for March 2020 are expected to be down 12% from a
year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Total SAAR is expected to decrease 38% from a year ago when
adjusted for the same number of selling days from 17.4 million
units to 10.7 million units.
- Used vehicle sales for March 2020 are expected to reach
2,707,235, down 29% from a year ago and down 24% from February
2020.
- The average interest rates on new vehicle loans is 6.53%, based
on TrueCar data.
“While new and used vehicle sales are both down year-over-year,
used sales declines aren’t as steep, signaling a shift in demand to
vehicles at lower price points,” said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM
and Affinity Partner Analytics at TrueCar. “As incentives surface
to assist with new vehicle affordability and the price delta
between new vehicles and recent model year used vehicles shrinks,
we can expect to see the demand even out between new and used.”
ALG’s Revised COVID-19 2020 New Vehicle Sales
Forecast:
- ALG Revises 2020 New Vehicle Sales Forecast Scenarios Based on
Latest Impact of COVID-19
March 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by
volume: (Adjusted for same selling days as March 2019.)
For additional data visit the ALG
Newsroom.
Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer |
Mar 2020 Forecast |
Mar 2019 Actual |
Feb 2020 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
BMW |
20,901 |
36,148 |
27,476 |
-42.2% |
-37.6% |
-23.9% |
-20.9% |
Daimler |
17,839 |
30,627 |
26,088 |
-41.8% |
-37.1% |
-31.6% |
-28.9% |
FCA |
117,473 |
200,307 |
183,926 |
-41.4% |
-36.7% |
-36.1% |
-33.6% |
Ford |
138,914 |
230,382 |
189,561 |
-39.7% |
-34.9% |
-26.7% |
-23.8% |
GM |
159,282 |
271,205 |
238,448 |
-41.3% |
-36.6% |
-33.2% |
-30.5% |
Honda |
82,848 |
148,509 |
120,006 |
-44.2% |
-39.8% |
-31.0% |
-28.2% |
Hyundai |
36,985 |
62,627 |
54,600 |
-40.9% |
-36.2% |
-32.3% |
-29.6% |
Kia |
34,169 |
55,814 |
52,177 |
-38.8% |
-33.9% |
-34.5% |
-31.9% |
Nissan |
83,576 |
150,768 |
99,253 |
-44.6% |
-40.1% |
-15.8% |
-12.4% |
Subaru |
34,553 |
61,601 |
51,695 |
-43.9% |
-39.4% |
-33.2% |
-30.5% |
Tesla |
9,939 |
13,000 |
20,450 |
-23.5% |
-17.4% |
-51.4% |
-49.5% |
Toyota |
126,153 |
214,947 |
195,407 |
-41.3% |
-36.6% |
-35.4% |
-32.9% |
Volkswagen Group |
36,680 |
62,577 |
50,390 |
-41.4% |
-36.7% |
-27.2% |
-24.3% |
Industry |
941,735 |
1,608,662 |
1,373,324 |
-41.5% |
-36.8% |
-31.4% |
-28.7% |
Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer |
Mar 2020 Forecast |
Mar 2019 Actual |
Feb 2020 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
BMW |
19,084 |
35,078 |
25,949 |
-45.6% |
-41.2% |
-26.5% |
-23.5% |
Daimler |
13,371 |
28,767 |
23,734 |
-53.5% |
-49.8% |
-43.7% |
-41.4% |
FCA |
62,541 |
151,141 |
128,833 |
-58.6% |
-55.3% |
-51.5% |
-49.5% |
Ford |
90,954 |
133,947 |
133,421 |
-32.1% |
-26.7% |
-31.8% |
-29.1% |
GM |
115,705 |
225,578 |
167,530 |
-48.7% |
-44.6% |
-30.9% |
-28.2% |
Honda |
74,446 |
146,800 |
115,944 |
-49.3% |
-45.2% |
-35.8% |
-33.2% |
Hyundai |
21,713 |
47,194 |
40,427 |
-54.0% |
-50.3% |
-46.3% |
-44.1% |
Kia |
22,917 |
46,868 |
41,844 |
-51.1% |
-47.2% |
-45.2% |
-43.0% |
Nissan |
46,714 |
101,269 |
68,324 |
-53.9% |
-50.2% |
-31.6% |
-28.9% |
Subaru |
28,833 |
58,448 |
48,423 |
-50.7% |
-46.7% |
-40.5% |
-38.1% |
Tesla |
9,939 |
13,000 |
20,450 |
-23.5% |
-17.4% |
-51.4% |
-49.5% |
Toyota |
97,554 |
191,463 |
166,441 |
-49.0% |
-45.0% |
-41.4% |
-39.0% |
Volkswagen Group |
29,656 |
56,395 |
44,783 |
-47.4% |
-43.2% |
-33.8% |
-31.1% |
Industry |
665,343 |
1,292,614 |
1,078,492 |
-48.5% |
-44.4% |
-38.3% |
-35.8% |
Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer |
Mar 2020 Forecast |
Mar 2019 Actual |
Feb 2020 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
BMW |
1,816 |
1,070 |
1,527 |
69.8% |
83.4% |
18.9% |
23.7% |
Daimler |
4,469 |
1,860 |
2,354 |
140.2% |
159.4% |
89.8% |
97.4% |
FCA |
54,932 |
49,166 |
55,093 |
11.7% |
20.7% |
-0.3% |
3.7% |
Ford |
47,960 |
96,435 |
56,140 |
-50.3% |
-46.3% |
-14.6% |
-11.2% |
GM |
43,577 |
45,627 |
70,918 |
-4.5% |
3.1% |
-38.6% |
-36.1% |
Honda |
8,401 |
1,709 |
4,062 |
391.5% |
430.8% |
106.8% |
115.1% |
Hyundai |
15,271 |
15,433 |
14,173 |
-1.0% |
6.9% |
7.7% |
12.1% |
Kia |
11,252 |
8,946 |
10,333 |
25.8% |
35.8% |
8.9% |
13.2% |
Nissan |
36,862 |
49,499 |
30,929 |
-25.5% |
-19.6% |
19.2% |
23.9% |
Subaru |
5,719 |
3,153 |
3,272 |
81.4% |
95.9% |
74.8% |
81.8% |
Tesla |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
|
|
Toyota |
28,599 |
23,484 |
28,966 |
21.8% |
31.5% |
-1.3% |
2.7% |
Volkswagen Group |
7,024 |
6,182 |
5,607 |
13.6% |
22.7% |
25.3% |
30.3% |
Industry |
276,392 |
316,048 |
294,832 |
-12.5% |
-5.6% |
-6.3% |
-2.5% |
Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer |
Mar 2020 Forecast |
|
Mar 2019 Actual |
|
Feb 2020 Actual |
|
YoY % Change |
|
MoM % Change |
|
BMW |
8.7 |
% |
3.0 |
% |
5.6 |
% |
193.7 |
% |
56.3 |
% |
Daimler |
25.1 |
% |
6.1 |
% |
9.0 |
% |
312.4 |
% |
177.6 |
% |
FCA |
46.8 |
% |
24.5 |
% |
30.0 |
% |
90.5 |
% |
56.1 |
% |
Ford |
34.5 |
% |
41.9 |
% |
29.6 |
% |
-17.5 |
% |
16.6 |
% |
GM |
27.4 |
% |
16.8 |
% |
29.7 |
% |
62.6 |
% |
-8.0 |
% |
Honda |
10.1 |
% |
1.2 |
% |
3.4 |
% |
781.1 |
% |
199.6 |
% |
Hyundai |
41.3 |
% |
24.6 |
% |
26.0 |
% |
67.6 |
% |
59.1 |
% |
Kia |
32.9 |
% |
16.0 |
% |
19.8 |
% |
105.4 |
% |
66.3 |
% |
Nissan |
44.1 |
% |
32.8 |
% |
31.2 |
% |
34.3 |
% |
41.5 |
% |
Subaru |
16.6 |
% |
5.1 |
% |
6.3 |
% |
223.4 |
% |
161.6 |
% |
Tesla |
0.0 |
% |
0.0 |
% |
0.0 |
% |
|
|
Toyota |
22.7 |
% |
10.9 |
% |
14.8 |
% |
107.5 |
% |
52.9 |
% |
Volkswagen Group |
19.1 |
% |
9.9 |
% |
11.1 |
% |
93.8 |
% |
72.1 |
% |
Industry |
29.3 |
% |
19.6 |
% |
21.5 |
% |
49.4 |
% |
36.7 |
% |
Total Market Share
Manufacturer |
Mar 2020 Forecast |
|
Mar 2019 Actual |
|
Feb 2020 Actual |
|
BMW |
2.2 |
% |
2.2 |
% |
2.0 |
% |
Daimler |
1.9 |
% |
1.9 |
% |
1.9 |
% |
FCA |
12.5 |
% |
12.5 |
% |
13.4 |
% |
Ford |
14.8 |
% |
14.3 |
% |
13.8 |
% |
GM |
16.9 |
% |
16.9 |
% |
17.4 |
% |
Honda |
8.8 |
% |
9.2 |
% |
8.7 |
% |
Hyundai |
3.9 |
% |
3.9 |
% |
4.0 |
% |
Kia |
3.6 |
% |
3.5 |
% |
3.8 |
% |
Nissan |
8.9 |
% |
9.4 |
% |
7.2 |
% |
Subaru |
3.7 |
% |
3.8 |
% |
3.8 |
% |
Tesla |
1.1 |
% |
0.8 |
% |
1.5 |
% |
Toyota |
13.4 |
% |
13.4 |
% |
14.2 |
% |
Volkswagen Group |
3.9 |
% |
3.9 |
% |
3.7 |
% |
Retail Market Share
Manufacturer |
Mar 2020 Forecast |
|
Mar 2019 Actual |
|
Feb 2020 Actual |
|
BMW |
2.9 |
% |
2.7 |
% |
2.4 |
% |
Daimler |
2.0 |
% |
2.2 |
% |
2.2 |
% |
FCA |
9.4 |
% |
11.7 |
% |
11.9 |
% |
Ford |
13.7 |
% |
10.4 |
% |
12.4 |
% |
GM |
17.4 |
% |
17.5 |
% |
15.5 |
% |
Honda |
11.2 |
% |
11.4 |
% |
10.8 |
% |
Hyundai |
3.3 |
% |
3.7 |
% |
3.7 |
% |
Kia |
3.4 |
% |
3.6 |
% |
3.9 |
% |
Nissan |
7.0 |
% |
7.8 |
% |
6.3 |
% |
Subaru |
4.3 |
% |
4.5 |
% |
4.5 |
% |
Tesla |
1.5 |
% |
1.0 |
% |
1.9 |
% |
Toyota |
14.7 |
% |
14.8 |
% |
15.4 |
% |
Volkswagen Group |
4.5 |
% |
4.4 |
% |
4.2 |
% |
Quarterly Tables Total Unit Sales,
Quarterly
Manufacturer |
Q1 2020 |
Q1 2019 |
Q4 2019 |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
QoQ % Change |
QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
BMW |
69,901 |
82,793 |
100,952 |
-15.6% |
-16.7% |
-30.8% |
-28.9% |
Daimler |
69,114 |
78,878 |
105,885 |
-12.4% |
-13.5% |
-34.7% |
-33.0% |
FCA |
438,415 |
500,870 |
538,710 |
-12.5% |
-13.6% |
-18.6% |
-16.5% |
Ford |
499,458 |
586,956 |
604,198 |
-14.9% |
-16.0% |
-17.3% |
-15.2% |
GM |
632,871 |
665,005 |
735,497 |
-4.8% |
-6.1% |
-14.0% |
-11.7% |
Honda |
304,421 |
369,787 |
420,752 |
-17.7% |
-18.8% |
-27.6% |
-25.7% |
Hyundai |
135,598 |
151,787 |
190,189 |
-10.7% |
-11.8% |
-28.7% |
-26.8% |
Kia |
126,607 |
136,596 |
149,788 |
-7.3% |
-8.5% |
-15.5% |
-13.3% |
Nissan |
262,624 |
365,851 |
309,353 |
-28.2% |
-29.2% |
-15.1% |
-12.9% |
Subaru |
132,532 |
156,754 |
177,167 |
-15.5% |
-16.6% |
-25.2% |
-23.2% |
Tesla |
49,190 |
46,900 |
48,239 |
4.9% |
3.5% |
2.0% |
4.7% |
Toyota |
487,623 |
543,716 |
613,486 |
-10.3% |
-11.5% |
-20.5% |
-18.4% |
Volkswagen Group |
131,974 |
149,618 |
168,233 |
-11.8% |
-13.0% |
-21.6% |
-19.5% |
Industry |
3,340,326 |
3,835,511 |
4,300,460 |
-12.9% |
-14.1% |
-22.3% |
-20.3% |
Retail Unit Sales, Quarterly
Manufacturer |
Q1 2020 |
Q1 2019 |
Q4 2019 |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
QoQ % Change |
QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
BMW |
70,256 |
80,158 |
92,992 |
-12.4% |
-13.5% |
-24.4% |
-22.5% |
Daimler |
60,202 |
73,937 |
102,312 |
-18.6% |
-19.6% |
-41.2% |
-39.6% |
FCA |
274,885 |
377,632 |
406,214 |
-27.2% |
-28.2% |
-32.3% |
-30.5% |
Ford |
326,248 |
366,169 |
443,331 |
-10.9% |
-12.1% |
-26.4% |
-24.5% |
GM |
414,409 |
508,509 |
532,562 |
-18.5% |
-19.6% |
-22.2% |
-20.1% |
Honda |
297,439 |
366,537 |
416,814 |
-18.9% |
-19.9% |
-28.6% |
-26.8% |
Hyundai |
100,834 |
108,615 |
163,358 |
-7.2% |
-8.4% |
-38.3% |
-36.6% |
Kia |
101,592 |
108,963 |
131,832 |
-6.8% |
-8.0% |
-22.9% |
-20.9% |
Nissan |
177,832 |
247,219 |
270,912 |
-28.1% |
-29.0% |
-34.4% |
-32.6% |
Subaru |
122,901 |
147,682 |
171,157 |
-16.8% |
-17.9% |
-28.2% |
-26.3% |
Tesla |
49,190 |
46,900 |
48,239 |
4.9% |
3.5% |
2.0% |
4.7% |
Toyota |
398,355 |
465,616 |
580,907 |
-14.4% |
-15.6% |
-31.4% |
-29.6% |
Volkswagen Group |
113,579 |
134,786 |
160,055 |
-15.7% |
-16.8% |
-29.0% |
-27.2% |
Industry |
2,507,723 |
3,032,723 |
3,678,198 |
-17.3% |
-18.4 |
-31.8% |
-30.0% |
Total Market Share, Quarterly
Manufacturer |
Q1 2020 |
|
Q1 2019 |
|
Q4 2019 |
|
BMW |
2.1 |
% |
2.2 |
% |
2.3 |
% |
Daimler |
2.1 |
% |
2.1 |
% |
2.5 |
% |
FCA |
13.1 |
% |
13.1 |
% |
12.5 |
% |
Ford |
15.0 |
% |
15.3 |
% |
14.0 |
% |
GM |
18.9 |
% |
17.3 |
% |
17.1 |
% |
Honda |
9.1 |
% |
9.6 |
% |
9.8 |
% |
Hyundai |
4.1 |
% |
4.0 |
% |
4.4 |
% |
Kia |
3.8 |
% |
3.6 |
% |
3.5 |
% |
Nissan |
7.9 |
% |
9.5 |
% |
7.2 |
% |
Subaru |
4.0 |
% |
4.1 |
% |
4.1 |
% |
Tesla |
1.5 |
% |
1.2 |
% |
1.1 |
% |
Toyota |
14.6 |
% |
14.2 |
% |
14.3 |
% |
Volkswagen Group |
4.0 |
% |
3.9 |
% |
3.9 |
% |
Retail Market Share, Quarterly
Manufacturer |
Q1 2020 |
|
Q1 2019 |
|
Q4 2019 |
|
BMW |
2.8 |
% |
2.6 |
% |
2.5 |
% |
Daimler |
2.4 |
% |
2.4 |
% |
2.8 |
% |
FCA |
11.0 |
% |
12.5 |
% |
11.0 |
% |
Ford |
13.0 |
% |
12.1 |
% |
12.1 |
% |
GM |
16.5 |
% |
16.8 |
% |
14.5 |
% |
Honda |
11.9 |
% |
12.1 |
% |
11.3 |
% |
Hyundai |
4.0 |
% |
3.6 |
% |
4.4 |
% |
Kia |
4.1 |
% |
3.6 |
% |
3.6 |
% |
Nissan |
7.1 |
% |
8.2 |
% |
7.4 |
% |
Subaru |
4.9 |
% |
4.9 |
% |
4.7 |
% |
Tesla |
2.0 |
% |
1.5 |
% |
1.3 |
% |
Toyota |
15.9 |
% |
15.4 |
% |
15.8 |
% |
Volkswagen Group |
4.5 |
% |
4.4 |
% |
4.4 |
% |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis
of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of
TrueCar, Inc.’s operations.)
About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California,
ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value
projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing
nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG
provides auto industry and financial services clients with market
industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle
portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned
subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that
provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people
paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for
all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in
Canada since 1981.
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to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief
that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great
car buying experience. As part of our
marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over
250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, and American
Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage
with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and
drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa
Monica, California, with offices in Austin,
Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and
follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media
line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) |
Email: pr@truecar.com
TrueCar and ALG PR Contact:Shadee
Malekafzalishadee@truecar.com424.258.8694
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