TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts New Car Auto Sales Remain Steady, Down Slightly for November in Similar Trend Throughout 2019
November 26 2019 - 9:00AM
TrueCar, Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TRUE) data and analytics subsidiary, ALG,
projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,399,639 units in
November 2019, down 3% from a year ago when adjusted for the same
number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized
rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.9
million units. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail
deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,193,462 units, a
decrease of 2.6% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number
of selling days.
“Economic fundamentals remain solid with November
auto sales continuing to follow a similar trend as previous months
in 2019 with a slight year-over-year decline,” said Oliver Strauss,
Chief Economist at ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “Consumers are
continuing to purchase vehicles yet at a more cautious rate than in
previous years due to ongoing tariff and recession
uncertainty."
Additional Insights: (Forecast by
ALG)
- Among mainstream brands, Honda stood out for total sales, up
5.6% year-over-year, buoyed by an increase in incentive spend and
fleet sales. Typically known for its discipline, Honda has
increased incentive spend throughout 2019 but maintains a lower
dollar spend than most other manufacturers.
- Hyundai and Kia continue to perform well, up 7.8% and 6.1%,
respectively, year-over-year, led by their new Palisade and
Telluride utilities and other new product.
- On the TrueCar Platform, the Hyundai Palisade and Kia Telluride
midsize utilities are continuing to resonate with consumers,
generating high demand and often driving transaction prices above
MSRP.
- For the luxury brands, BMW had a strong month with a 4.4%
year-over-year sales increase and Mercedes-Benz stood out again, up
3.1% on total sales and 5.3% on retail while lowering
incentives.
- Tesla is expected to be up month-over-month but down
year-over-year given difficult compares from last year’s surge in
buyers hoping to secure the last of their federal EV credits. The
electric automaker is expected to be down 11.3% in total units
year-over-year.
- Nissan is forecast to be down 12.4% in total unit sales
compared to a year ago with losses expected from both its Infiniti
luxury brand as well as its mainstream Nissan brand. Meanwhile, FCA
is expected to be down 9.2%, mainly attributed to aging product and
a decrease in fleet sales.
- Average automaker incentive spend is expected to reach $3,767,
up 1.2% or $43 dollars year-over-year, and down 3.5% or $137 from
October 2019.
- The most notable year-over-year declines in incentive spend are
expected from Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Nissan. Meanwhile, Subaru, FCA
and Honda are expected to have the biggest incentive
increases.
- Used vehicle sales for November 2019 are expected to reach
3,095,166, up 9% from a year ago and down 10% from October
2019.
“Black Friday is one of the biggest sales days in retail, and
automotive retail is no different,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry
Analyst for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “Black Friday marks the
beginning of the busy end-of-year car buying season with automakers
and dealers sweetening their deals making it one of the best days
for consumers to buy. Like with recent years, most automakers
pulled forward Black Friday deals into the beginning of November to
help spur retail sales."
November 2019 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers
by volume: (Adjusted for same selling days as November
2018.) For additional data visit the ALG
Newsroom.
Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer |
Nov 2019 |
Nov 2018 |
YoY % Change (Days selling
rate) |
BMW |
34,686 |
31,955 |
4.4 |
% |
Daimler |
35,372 |
32,979 |
3.1 |
% |
FCA |
171,152 |
181,310 |
-9.2 |
% |
Ford |
190,135 |
195,255 |
-6.4 |
% |
GM |
245,734 |
248,677 |
-5.0 |
% |
Honda |
132,378 |
120,534 |
5.6 |
% |
Hyundai |
64,455 |
57,499 |
7.8 |
% |
Kia |
49,766 |
45,101 |
6.1 |
% |
Nissan |
100,659 |
110,513 |
-12.4 |
% |
Subaru |
57,390 |
56,782 |
-2.8 |
% |
Tesla |
15,502 |
16,800 |
-11.3 |
% |
Toyota |
199,163 |
190,423 |
0.6 |
% |
Volkswagen Group |
51,317 |
49,912 |
-1.1 |
% |
Industry |
1,399,639 |
1,387,077 |
-3.0 |
% |
Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer |
Nov 2019 |
Nov 2018 |
YoY % Change(Days selling
rate) |
BMW |
31,920 |
31,437 |
-2.4 |
% |
Daimler |
33,296 |
30,402 |
5.3 |
% |
FCA |
137,131 |
135,847 |
-2.9 |
% |
Ford |
142,419 |
146,394 |
-6.5 |
% |
GM |
190,567 |
196,622 |
-6.8 |
% |
Honda |
129,334 |
119,895 |
3.7 |
% |
Hyundai |
54,383 |
46,858 |
11.6 |
% |
Kia |
40,364 |
38,336 |
1.2 |
% |
Nissan |
80,957 |
89,963 |
-13.5 |
% |
Subaru |
55,500 |
54,986 |
-2.9 |
% |
Tesla |
15,502 |
16,800 |
-11.3 |
% |
Toyota |
183,611 |
176,926 |
-0.2 |
% |
Volkswagen Group |
49,007 |
47,694 |
-1.2 |
% |
Industry |
1,193,462 |
1,178,712 |
-2.6 |
% |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s
analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a
projection of TrueCar Inc.’s operations.)
About TrueCarTrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a
digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing
transparency about what other people paid for their cars and
enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are
committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar
operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more
than 16,500 Certified Dealers, and also powers car-buying programs
for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations,
including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Nearly
half of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during
their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica,
California, with an office in Austin, Texas.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow
us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US
toll-free) | Email: pressinquiries@truecar.com
About ALGFounded in 1964 and headquartered in
Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on
automotive residual value projections in both the United States and
Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess
residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services
clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts,
consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG
is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive
marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about
what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing
residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over
55 years and in Canada since 1981.
TrueCar & ALG PR Contact:
Shadee Malekafzali
shadee@truecar.com
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