SAP 3Q Points To Broader Business Software Challenges
October 28 2009 - 4:07PM
Dow Jones News
SAP A.G. (SAP) reported weak software sales for its third
quarter and forecast softness for the rest of the year on
Wednesday; suggesting changes in the market for enterprise software
are presenting challenges for the German giant and its key
competitors.
Walldorf, Germany-based SAP makes accounting, payroll and human
resources software used by big companies to manage their
operations. For years, SAP made fat profits on both the initial
sale of the software and lucrative maintenance revenue from
support, fixes and upgrades.
Although SAP isn't the only company finding corporate customers
unwilling to spend, the weak outlook suggests its model may be
under pressures that go beyond the current economic situation.
Faced with the worst slowdown in decades, many big companies have
grown hesitant to buy big- ticket software items and are instead
studying low-cost alternatives provided by Internet-based providers
like Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) and Netsuite Inc. (N). Meanwhile,
there is evidence that some corporations are seeking to renegotiate
their software maintenance contracts at lower levels or get more
value for those contracts.
Together, the trends suggest a changing environment for SAP, as
well as competitor Oracle Corp. (ORCL). SAP and Oracle have already
penetrated most of the world's big companies. SAP, in particular,
has little room to grow its software business with multinationals
and other corporate titans. At the same time, the rise of the
Internet-based software, known as "software as a service," is
luring customers from both companies, because it can often be
provided more cheaply than installed software.
"When you've already sold everything to the large enterprise,
you've got to think of something new," said R "Ray" Wang, an
analyst with Altimeter Group. Wang said software as a service was
posting annual revenue growth at levels between 30% and 40%, while
on-premise business software is falling at about the same rate.
SAP spokesman Saswato Das acknowledged the company's customers
were changing the way they buy software, opting for smaller
packages than in the past. "Customers are continuing to buy, but in
smaller chunks," he said.
On Wednesday, SAP said software and software-related services
would drop as much as 8% from the EUR8.62 billion in posted in
2008. The company had previously forecast sales would fall between
4% and 6%.
Worryingly, what SAP describes as "software and software-related
services,"--primarily maintenance, accounting for over 70% of its
sales-- fell 3% in the quarter to EUR1.9B.
The news fueled a selloff in SAP shares, as well as those of
Oracle and other software companies. In late afternoon trading, SAP
was down 10%, at $46.03, while Oracle had dropped 2.6%, to
$21.31.
Maintenance is usually a stable revenue stream because customers
need those services in order to guarantee their operations run
smoothly. Analysts have recently indicated that challenges from
third-party product support companies, like closely held Rimini
Street, may be taking revenue. Rimini Street CEO Seth Ravin said
about 30% of his new business pipeline was SAP customers.
Concern over SAP's maintenance revenues has mounted in recent
weeks. On Oct. 21, SAP said it had renewed a maintenance contract
with its largest customer, Siemens A.G. (SI) that was reportedly
worth as little as half the original value.
SAP's Das declined to comment on the value of the deal.
Analysts say the deal could be an indication of a broader shift
in the way companies negotiate with SAP and other software
vendors.
"The Siemens negotiation may be a harbinger of change," Patrick
Walravens, an analyst at JMP Securities, wrote in a research note.
"Maintenance (revenues) may no longer be an entitlement."
Oracle also generates about half of its $20 billion plus in
annual revenues from maintenance revenue, but the company's
maintenance revenues have held up better during the recession. It
also offers a broader range of corporate tools like databases,
which may hedge it better than SAP. It is also diversifying into
hardware through its pending acquisition of Sun Microsystems Inc.
(JAVA).
Altimeter's Wang says that Oracle's broader product portfolio
will likely help it protect these recurring revenues. Nevertheless,
the implications of SAP's performance are worrying for Oracle too.
"A lot of customers are getting concessions in maintenance
contracts from both these companies," Wang said.
An Oracle spokeswoman declined to comment.
-By Jessica Hodgson, Dow Jones Newswires; 415-439-6455;
jessica.hodgson@dowjones.com