MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
New Commercial Vehicle Registrations in Europe statistics; EU
Business & Consumer Surveys; ECB interest rate announcement.
Updates from Sanofi, Beiersdorf, Lloyds Banking Group, WPP, DS
Smith, Volkswagen, TotalEnergies.
Opening Call:
European stocks could struggle for momentum early Thursday ahead
of the ECB meeting. Dollar flat, Yen strengthens as concerns over
Covid-19 infections in Asia rise. 10-year U.S. Treasury yields
fall. Oil falls and gold inches lower.
Equities:
European stocks are set to waver at the open Thursday as
investors await the European Central Bank policy meeting later.
President Christine Lagarde and most of the rest of the ECB are
still in the inflation is transitory camp, at least for now. Of
course, inflation isn't quite as red hot in the eurozone as it is
in the U.S., with consumer prices up 3.4% year-over-year in
September, compared to 5.4% in the U.S., but it still faster than
what the ECB had said as recently as last month.
The bond market has reacted, pushing yields higher. A
combination of surging energy prices and a solid rollout of
vaccinations after a slow start is putting pressure on ECB
policymakers.
"The question for the upcoming policy decision is just what the
Governing Council and President Lagarde say or do to push back,"
said James Rossiter, head of global macro strategy at TD
Securities. Already, there's been some pushback, with the ECB's
chief economist, Philip Lane, saying "it's challenging to reconcile
some of the market views with our pretty clear, straightforward
forward guidance."
Elsewhere, U.S. stocks fell in choppy trading Wednesday,
retreating from records set just the previous day.
Investors say that, overall, corporate earnings have reassured
them that companies have been able to take issues like supply-chain
problems, inflation and a slowdown in Chinese economic growth in
stride. Despite Wednesday's pullback, the S&P 500 remains on
course for its biggest monthly advance since November.
"Investors got fairly gloomy in September, clearly against the
backdrop of all sorts of macro concerns," said Paul O'Connor, head
of the multiasset team at Janus Henderson Investors. "The broader
story from results is that companies are managing these dynamics
pretty well, and also managing expectations fairly well."
Money managers still have worries, ranging from the fate of
President Biden's infrastructure and social-spending plans to the
potential unwind of Federal Reserve stimulus measures that have
boosted markets since early 2020. In the latest sign the economy
slowed in the third quarter, data out Wednesday showed durable
goods orders fell 0.4% in September from August.
Stocks to watch: Banking stocks dropped after the U.K. budget
statement, which didn't offer many surprises over and above details
leaked beforehand, GAM Investments said.
Finance minister Rishi Sunak announced plans to cut an 8%
surcharge on bank profits over GBP25 million to 3% from April 2023.
"It was hoped that the banking surcharge was going to be cut, but
Sunak has retained the 3% levy, so banking stocks are the biggest
loser from today's budget, " GAM Investment Director Charles
Hepworth said.
Barclays, HSBC and NatWest Group dropped and other financial
stocks also lost ground. "U.K. equities still remain a pretty
unloved regional play for global investors. The scarring of Brexit
is still a haunting concern for many," Hepworth said.
Forex:
The dollar was flat in early Asia trade following data Wednesday
showing U.S. durable-goods orders fell for the first time since
April. "Today's figures, while emanating from the manufacturing
sector, highlight ongoing themes of rising inflation in a broader
sense," Cambridge Global Payments currency analyst Matthew Eidinger
said.
He added that with currency markets awaiting the first read on
3Q US GDP and September consumer inflation later this week,
movement in currency markets is becoming more muted. "These two
data points will be viewed as the most up to date pulse on the
American economy and consumer pricing trends" ahead of the FOMC
meeting in early November, at which the Fed "likely decides to
reduce monetary stimulus measures."
JPY strengthened against other G-10 and Asian currencies, as
concerns over surges of Covid-19 infections in Asia boost the haven
appeal of the yen. Focus in Asia may be on the continuing Covid-19
risks in China, with infections in Beijing at an eight-month high,
IG said.
Also, Singapore had an "unusually" high number of more than
5,000 new cases Wednesday, IG said, noting comments from the
Ministry of Health.
Sterling stayed weaker after U.K. Treasury chief Rishi Sunak
unveiled his latest budget statement on Wednesday. "The Chancellor
is moving away from big deficits and toward fiscal discipline at a
time when U.K. GDP remains below its pre-pandemic trend," HSBC
Asset Management analyst James Antwis said.
The budget should provide the Bank of England with "food for
thought" before its November 4 policy meeting and throws doubt over
whether the central bank can raise interest rates as quickly as the
market expects since the combination of higher rates and premature
fiscal tightening would jeopardise the recovery, he said.
Bonds:
Investors continued to buy gilts during the U.K.'s government's
budget, pushing yields lower, suggesting they interpreted a less
positive outlook for the U.K. economy, said Oliver Blackbourn,
portfolio manager at Janus Henderson.
"Investors appeared to see little to buoy the longer-term U.K.
economic outlook as yields slipped lower during the speech and the
curve flattened markedly," he said, stressing that the move lower
in the U.K. gilt market was far more pronounced than the decline in
global yields. This highlights investor concerns about both
inflation running well-above the central bank's 2% target and the
future fiscal drag on growth as spending falls, he said.
Treasury yields were mostly lower Wednesday. The 10-year
benchmark has been hovering around 1.6% for most of this month as
investors brace for tapering and move forward their estimates for
rate increases while inflation proves more resilient than initially
expected.
Higher inflation "is no longer just being driven by a handful of
one-off factors," Capital Economics said, noting that traveling
costs are no longer suppressed by the Delta variant and could
increase October CPI data. "The pick-up in both survey and
market-based measures of inflation expectations is an additional
concern."
Energy:
Oil declines in early Asian trade, following U.S. government
data showing a rise in domestic crude inventories. Further supply
could be coming from Iran, as the resumption of nuclear talks
between the country and the EU suggests the possibility that it
will soon be able to export crude oil again, CBA said.
Metals:
Gold inched lower in early Asian trade, pulling back after
getting some support overnight from weakness in USD and a retreat
in U.S. Treasury yields. The precious metal seems to be struggling
to maintain gains above $1,800.00, Oanda said, adding that
investors will likely turn their attention to next week's FOMC
meeting for now. "It is almost certain that a start to the Fed
taper will be announced," Oanda said.
Iron ore prices were sharply lower in Asian trading, as the
commodity retreats from days of gains earlier this week and recent
data showing higher production output also weighed. Huatai Futures
said Chinese officials' push to ease a surge in commodity prices
could further expand supply in the near term.
However, in the longer run, Huatai expects rangebound trading in
the commodity, pointing to limitations for the commodity's price
upside and downside.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
BOJ Lowers Outlook for Japan Growth, Inflation
TOKYO-The Bank of Japan lowered its growth forecast, reflecting
supply-chain constraints that have weighed on exports and
production, and said it didn't see significant inflation
coming.
In its quarterly outlook report released Thursday, the bank's
policy board projected the Japanese economy would expand 3.4% in
the current fiscal year ending March 2022, compared with its
previous projection of 3.8% released in July. It said it expects
2.9% growth in the year ending March 2023, up from a previous
projection of 2.7% growth.
Iran to Return to Nuclear Deal Talks in Vienna Next Month
Iran will return to nuclear talks before the end of November,
its chief negotiator said Wednesday, restoring the Biden
administration's hopes that it can revive the 2015 nuclear
deal.
Iran's return to the negotiations would end a five-month hiatus
in talks that has enabled Tehran's new hardline government to press
ahead with its nuclear program.
Democrats Drop Paid Leave From $1.75 Trillion Proposal
WASHINGTON-Democrats abandoned plans to include a paid-leave
program in their social spending and climate bill, according to
people familiar with the talks, while prospects for a billionaires'
levy to help fund the package faded and a potential surtax on
wealthy Americans' income gained traction.
The White House is pushing for Democrats to come together around
the bill, expected to cost around $1.75 trillion, by the end of the
week, which could also unlock possible passage of a parallel
bipartisan infrastructure package that has been held up by
progressives in the House. President Biden is set to attend the
Glasgow climate conference next week, and the Virginia and New
Jersey gubernatorial elections end Tuesday, making the White House
eager to show progress on his agenda.
SEC Won't Approve Leveraged Bitcoin Fund
The Securities and Exchange Commission asked at least one asset
manager not to proceed with plans for a leveraged bitcoin
exchange-traded fund, according to a person familiar with the
matter.
The SEC indicated it wants to limit new bitcoin-related products
to those that provide unleveraged exposure to bitcoin futures
contracts, such as the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF, which was
launched last week, the person said.
CFTC Chief Says Recent Crypto Cases Are 'Tip of the Iceberg'
WASHINGTON-The acting head of the Commodity Futures Trading
Commission said Wednesday that he plans to continue aggressively
policing cryptocurrency markets and called on Congress to consider
expanding his agency's authority to do so.
Rostin Behnam, the CFTC's acting chairman, noted that the agency
has settled two enforcement actions against cryptocurrency
companies totaling $140 million. "But this is the tip of the
iceberg," he said in a confirmation hearing before the Senate
Agriculture Committee.
U.K., Canada Lead West in Weaning Economies Off Covid-19
Pandemic Support
LONDON-The U.K. dialed back government stimulus for the fast
growing British economy, one of the first big Western economies to
step away from the emergency policies put in place to tackle the
coronavirus pandemic as concerns over inflation intensify.
Treasury chief Rishi Sunak set new tax and spending policies
that together with faster growth are forecast to shrink the U.K.'s
budget deficit significantly over the next few years, putting the
U.K. in the vanguard of countries reducing fiscal support for their
economies as the strong but fitful recovery from the pandemic
continues.
U.K. Audit Regulator Says Companies Need to Improve Disclosure
on Revenue, Cash Flows
The U.K. audit and accounting regulator said it questioned
nearly 100 companies about their reporting in areas including
revenue and cash flows and asked 15 of them to restate their
accounts as part of an annual review of financial filings.
The Financial Reporting Council on Wednesday said it reviewed
the annual reports of 246 British companies, about 39% of which it
reached out to for additional information. The percentage is down
from the previous year, when the FRC questioned roughly 44% of 216
businesses whose reports it analyzed.
More Travelers Are Heading to Europe in 2022 After the Pandemic
Sank Vacation Plans
More travelers are starting to think big about vacations
again.
After a long stretch of mainly short-term travel planning,
inquiries are picking up for trips well into 2022, according to
data from hotels and travel-industry analysts. The booking rates
are starting to trend closer to pre-pandemic levels, analysts
say.
GlaxoSmithKline Earnings Beat Expectations. The Embattled CEO
Says Her Plan Is Working.
Amid an assault from activist investors, GlaxoSmithKline CEO
Emma Walmsley announced third-quarter financial results that she
said show the company is on the right track.
"I am delighted to announce a quarter of strong financial
performance, which shows the actions being taken over the past few
years really paying off," Walmsley said on a media call early
Wednesday.
Third Point Has Big Shell Stake, Urges Energy Giant to Break
Up
Daniel Loeb's Third Point LLC has taken a large stake in Royal
Dutch Shell PLC and is urging the oil giant to separate into two
companies to retain and attract investors as many flee stocks seen
as environmentally unfriendly.
The activist is the latest to pressure a major oil company to
change its strategic direction, as the firms face calls to reduce
fossil fuel investments and pivot to renewable energy amid concerns
about climate change. Upstart hedge fund Engine No. 1 waged a
successful campaign to win seats on the board of Exxon Mobil Corp.
in May.
Samsung Posts Record Quarterly Revenue From Chip Boom
SEOUL-Samsung Electronics Co. reported record quarterly revenue
and saw net profit grow 31% on the back of booming demand for
memory chips, though some growth may soon slow as the global
component shortage stalls the assembly of various tech
products.
The Suwon, South Korea, company posted a third-quarter net
profit of 12.29 trillion won, or the equivalent of $10.5 billion,
versus 9.36 trillion won a year earlier.
Why Apple's Privacy Changes Hurt Snap and Facebook but Benefited
Google
Apple Inc.'s recent privacy crackdown has affected the largest
players in online advertising very differently, recent quarterly
results show, underscoring the strengths and weaknesses of each
tech giant's ad business.
Alphabet Inc.'s Google, the world's largest digital-ad company
by revenue, tallied its highest sales growth in more than a decade
in the third quarter, while Facebook Inc. and Snap Inc. came up
short of expectations and blamed Apple's privacy rules for the
slowdown.
Profit Falls at GM and Ford as Chip Shortage Takes Toll
The two largest U.S. auto makers reported steep drops in
third-quarter profit as the computer-chip shortage dented factory
output, and each said the problem would leave dealership lots
nearly bare well into 2022.
Executives from General Motors Co. and rival Ford Motor Co. said
the supply-chain disruptions should slowly improve in the fourth
quarter and throughout next year, although strong car demand will
make it difficult to restock dealership lots.
Hertz Links Up With Uber to Offer 50,000 Tesla Rentals
Hertz Global Holdings Inc. said Wednesday it is linking up with
Uber Technologies Inc. to make 50,000 Teslas available in Uber's
ride-sharing network by 2023, the latest in the rental-car
company's efforts to build momentum postbankruptcy.
The deal comes days after Hertz, which collapsed into bankruptcy
at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic last year, said it is making
a significant investment in an EV rental fleet, including an
initial order of 100,000 Teslas by the end of 2022 and new
EV-charging infrastructure across the globe. The company exited
Chapter 11 in June and has a stock listing planned for this
year.
Write to sarka.halas@wsj.com
Expected Major Events for Thursday
04:30/NED: Oct Producer confidence survey
06:00/NOR: 3Q Labour force survey
06:00/NOR: Aug Labour force survey SA, incl unemployment
06:00/EU: Sep New Commercial Vehicle Registrations in Europe
statistics (EU27 + EFTA3)
06:00/NOR: Sep Retail Sales
06:00/DEN: Oct Business tendency survey
07:00/SPN: 3Q Economically Active Population Survey
07:00/SWE: Oct Quarterly Business Tendency Survey
07:00/SWE: Oct Consumer Tendency Survey
07:00/SVK: Sep PPI
07:00/SVK: Oct Business tendency survey
07:00/SVK: Oct Economic sentiment indicator
07:00/HUN: Sep Employment & unemployment
07:00/SPN: Oct Flash Estimate CPI
07:30/SWE: Sep Retail sales
07:30/SWE: 3Q Flash GDP
07:55/GER: Oct Labour market statistics (incl unemployment)
08:00/ICE: Sep Labour Force Survey
08:00/GER: Oct Bavaria CPI
08:00/ITA: Oct Consumer Confidence Survey
08:00/ITA: Oct Business Confidence Survey
08:00/GER: Oct Brandenburg CPI
08:00/GER: Oct Hesse CPI
08:00/GER: Oct Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI
08:30/GER: Oct North Rhine Westphalia CPI
09:00/MLT: Sep PPI
09:00/EU: Oct Business & Consumer Surveys - Business Climate
Indicator & Economic Sentiment Indicator
09:00/GER: Oct Saxony CPI
09:30/BEL: Oct CPI
10:00/ITA: Sep PPI
10:00/IRL: Sep Retail Sales Index
11:45/EU: ECB interest rate announcement
12:00/GER: Oct Provisional CPI
13:00/BEL: 3Q Preliminary GDP
23:01/UK: 3Q BRC-LDC Vacancy Monitor
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 28, 2021 00:29 ET (04:29 GMT)
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