MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
Eurozone Harmonised CPI, Construction Output, Passenger Car
Registrations; Italy Foreign Trade EU; central bank policy
decisions from Norway, Switzerland, Turkey; Eurogroup meeting of
eurozone finance ministers; updates from Saint-Gobain, Air
France-KLM, Iberdrola, Carnival, Whitbread, Naspers, Petrofac, IAG,
Halfords
Opening Call:
A slightly "hawkish" Fed policy update that raised inflation
forecasts and brought forward the timing of an interest rate rise,
will likely jolt European equities on Thursday. In Asia, most
stocks fell, along with commodities, while the dollar and Treasury
yields extended their gains.
Equities:
European shares are in line for moderate losses at Thursday's
open after the Federal Reserve signaled it expects to increase the
benchmark lending rate ahead of schedule.
The Fed's projections showed an interest-rate increase to 0.6%
from 0% currently by the end of 2023, a bit sooner than previously
anticipated. Also, more Fed members now see a rate increase in
2022. This comes after the producer-price index, released on
Tuesday, rose more than expected, excluding food and energy. Still,
the Fed isn't upending its easy-money policies and will continue to
purchase $120 billion a month in bonds.
U.S. stocks retreated after the Fed's statement, having hugged
the flat line for much of the day. But it wasn't an aggressive
selloff: all three major indexes rose from their intraday lows and
the breadth of S&P 500 stocks that were in the red fell
significantly from above 90% earlier in the day.
That isn't a surprise to Jim Paulsen, chief investment
strategist at The Leuthold Group, who said, "I don't see how that
much changed today. I think they've [Fed members] been pretty clear
in what they're doing, that they're gonna run this [economy]
hot."
Mike Loewengart, head of investment strategy at ETrade, said:
Overall, "the market may be reacting to the change in the dot plot
[rate increase schedule] that now shows more officials indicating a
rate increase is coming in 2022."
Stocks to Watch: A decision on a port option for BHP's Jansen
potash project remains a key task to be completed before executives
take the proposed investment to the board in the coming few months,
said Rag Udd, BHP's President Minerals Americas. BHP, while
advanced on its rail plans, is still considering two port
options--one commercial, one greenfield, he said.
Speaking to investors, Udd also reiterated BHP is "open to
partnering, but [that] this project doesn't need a partner." His
remark follows media reports that BHP is in talks with Nutrien
about a partnership on Jansen. Udd said an investment in Jansen is
"a really big decision" given capital costs, and will rely on much
more than just BHP's favorable view on the outlook for potash.
Forex:
The dollar continued to strengthen in Asia after the Fed
signaled interest-rate hikes in 2023, with the ICE Dollar Index
pushing through 91.30.
The Fed's dot plot got a lot of attention for its hawkish shift
on Wednesday, but Jerome Powell cautioned against reading too much
into the chart. The dot plot is "not a forecast or a plan," and
officials didn't debate a rate hike this week, he said, adding "the
dots are not a great forecaster," and should be taken with "a big
grain of salt."
However, NAB said the dot plot indicates the median FOMC member
forecast is for two rate increases in 2023, versus none at the
March iteration, delivering a hawkish surprise on which most of the
subsequent market reaction has turned.
An imminent interest rate rise by the Bank of England is
unlikely, as the recent rise in U.K. inflation will prove
temporary, but sterling should still strengthen against the dollar
in coming months, said ING. "As the soft USD environment is set to
unfold this summer and EUR/USD is to grind higher, GBP/USD should
follow this direction."
ING expects EUR/USD to rise to 1.25 this summer from 1.2125
currently as it sees the dollar as the preferred funding currency
in investors' search for yield following a cautious message from
the Fed.
Bonds:
Treasury yields have added to Wednesday's gains, which were
their biggest one-day advance in three months after the Fed
surprised on in its interest rate hike timetable.
Yields began climbing after the Fed decision and continued to
rise after Jerome Powell said that recent inflation data have
exceeded the Fed's expectations. He reiterated the central bank's
view that inflation is likely to subside by next year as the supply
of goods catches up with consumer demand, but said that officials
would respond appropriately if prices rise more persistently.
Powell said officials discussed how and when to start reducing
purchases of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities begun during
the Covid-19 pandemic, though he said the economy still has to make
significant progress before it reaches the central bank's goals.
Mr. Powell has said the Fed would give markets plenty of advance
notice before it begins withdrawing easy-money policies.
"Taken all together, there is a much more hawkish tone than any
Fed communication that we've seen from the consensus," in a very
long time," said Thomas Simons, an economist at Jefferies.
Powell also said the level of money flowing into the central
bank's reverse repo facility, which has hovered around half a
trillion dollars over recent days, is not a concern.
He said the reverse repo facility is working as planned, and
when it comes to the changes in the Fed"s rate control toolkit, he
said it's possible it could have an impact on usage of the
facility, but that wasn't the aim of the Fed's shift.
Energy:
Oil retreated in Asian trade, with prices giving back
Wednesday's modest gains.
A "surprisingly hawkish" Fed sent Treasury yields and the dollar
higher and OANDA said a short-term rebound in the U.S. currency may
pose a downside risk to WTI crude for now.
Markets were also caught off-guard by a rare increase in U.S.
oil production to 11.2 million barrels a day, which is the highest
output in 13 months. If production keeps trending higher, crude's
long-running price rally could stall.
Metals:
Gold futures were almost 2% lower in Asia, extending their
post-Fed losses.
"The stakes were high with this Fed meeting and policy
statement, as investors wondered whether the FOMC would blithely
ignore or reasonably acknowledge the latest inflation and economic
data," Brien Lundon, editor of Gold Newsletter, told
MarketWatch.
"We got the latter, as the FOMC fired its first post-Covid shot
across the market's bow, with the majority now predicting the first
rate hikes by the end of 2023."
Base metals were sharply lower after media reports that China's
top regulatory body for state-owned enterprises has instructed them
to curb their exposure to the overseas commodities markets.
TD Securities said this appears to be an escalation from
increasing warnings from China's State Council against speculators
and 'hoarders,' in an effort to cool commodities markets.
Recently, the three-month LME copper contract was down 1.6% at
$9,513.00 a metric ton, nickel was 2.2% lower at $17,260.00 and
zinc was off 1.1% at $2,990.00.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Fed Pencils In Earlier Interest-Rate Increase
WASHINGTON-Federal Reserve officials signaled they expect to
raise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in
March, as the economy recovers rapidly from the effects of the
pandemic and inflation heats up.
Their median projection showed they see lifting their benchmark
rate to 0.6% from near zero by the end of 2023. In March they had
expected to hold it steady through that year.
Wall Street Banks Warn Their Trading Boom Is Over
The Wall Street boom is petering out at U.S. banks.
For much of 2020 and through the first quarter of this year, the
biggest U.S. banks posted blockbuster results from trading stocks
and bonds and advising companies on deals. The Federal Reserve
flooded the market with money, companies raced to sell new debt and
go public, and traders on Reddit and from big institutions moved
those securities quickly. Banks at the middle of all of those
transactions reaped the rewards.
House GOP Leader Criticizes Bipartisan Bills Targeting Big
Tech
WASHINGTON-Bipartisan legislation to curb the market power of
big technology companies faced a new hurdle Wednesday, with House
Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.) criticizing the bills
introduced last week.
Mr. McCarthy's opposition widens a GOP divide over the
proposals-which has been the aim of tech industry lobbyists seeking
to derail legislation that threatens the businesses of some of
America's largest companies, Amazon.com Inc., Facebook Inc.,
Alphabet Inc.'s Google and Apple Inc.
China's New Home Prices Remained Largely Stable in May
BEIJING-Home-price growth in China remained largely stable in
May amid Chinese authorities' efforts to cool the market and tackle
a buildup in developers' debt.
Average new home prices rose 4.47% in May from a year earlier,
after a 4.45% increase in April, the National Bureau of Statistics
said Thursday.
Biden, Putin Discuss Prickly Issues During First Summit
GENEVA-President Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin
sought to ease tensions during a high-profile summit, even as the
Russian leader denied involvement in cyberattacks and Mr. Biden
warned of significant consequences for future cyber-aggression or
harm to jailed Russian dissident Alexei Navalny.
The summit, which took place in an 18th century villa
overlooking Lake Geneva, came as both presidents have acknowledged
that relations between the U.S. and Russia have reached a post-Cold
War low in recent years. While the leaders expressed disagreements,
they also offered measured assessments of each other, avoiding the
heated rhetoric that has at times strained the bilateral
relationship.
CureVac Covid-19 Vaccine Candidate Disappoints in Key Study
CureVac NV said Wednesday its experimental Covid-19 vaccine was
47% effective against the disease in an interim analysis of a large
clinical trial, a disappointing outcome likely to dim the shot's
prospects for wider use.
The setback could hinder vaccination campaigns in Europe because
the German company has a contract with the European Commission to
supply up to 405 million doses. CureVac has struck partnerships
with big pharmaceutical companies GlaxoSmithKline PLC and Novartis
AG to help make doses.
Israel-Hamas Tensions High as Gaza Militants Launch More Flaming
Balloons
TEL AVIV-Palestinian militants in Gaza launched more flaming
balloons into Israel on Wednesday, as a new round of violence
between Israel and Hamas entered a second day and threatened to
trigger another conflict.
Little-known militant groups in Gaza claimed responsibility for
the arson attacks, which ignited four fires in agricultural zones
in southern Israel, according to Israel's Fire and Rescue
Authority.
Regeneron's Antibody Drug Cuts Risk of Death in Some Covid-19
Patients
An antibody treatment developed by Regeneron Pharmaceuticals
Inc. has been shown to significantly cut the risk of death among
certain hospitalized Covid-19 patients, raising hopes for a
valuable new tool for tackling severe cases.
A large U.K. trial involving nearly 10,000 patients showed that
administering REGEN-COV on top of usual care reduced the risk of
dying by a fifth among hospitalized coronavirus patients who hadn't
produced antibodies to the virus. The drug had no effect among
patients who had already produced antibodies.
Write to paul.larkins@dowjones.com
Expected Major Events for Thursday
04:30/NED: May Unemployment
06:00/EU: May New Passenger Car Registrations in Europe
statistics (EU27 + EFTA3)
06:00/SWI: May Trade Balance
07:00/SVK: May Harmonized CPI
07:00/AUT: May CPI
07:00/SPN: Apr Trade Balance
07:30/SWE: 1Q Financial accounts
07:30/SWI: Swiss National Bank monetary policy assessment
08:00/ITA: Apr Foreign Trade EU
08:00/NOR: Norges Bank monetary policy decision and presentation
of Monetary Policy Report
09:00/MLT: May Harmonised CPI
09:00/EU: May Harmonised CPI
09:00/EU: Apr Construction output
11:00/TUR: Turkish interest rate decision
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 17, 2021 00:30 ET (04:30 GMT)
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