HBM Prices to Increase by 5–10% in 2025, Accounting for Over 30% of Total DRAM Value, Says TrendForce
May 06 2024 - 6:00AM
Business Wire
Avril Wu, TrendForce Senior Research Vice President, reports
that the HBM market is poised for robust growth, driven by
significant pricing premiums and increased capacity needs for AI
chips. HBM's unit sales price is several times higher than that of
conventional DRAM and about five times that of DDR5. This pricing,
combined with product iterations in AI chip technology that
increase single-device HBM capacity, is expected to dramatically
raise HBM’s share in both the capacity and market value of the DRAM
market from 2023 to 2025.
Specifically, HBM’s share of total DRAM bit capacity is
estimated to rise from 2% in 2023 to 5% in 2024 and surpass 10% by
2025. In terms of market value, HBM is projected to account for
more than 20% of the total DRAM market value starting in 2024,
potentially exceeding 30% by 2025.
2024 sees HBM demand growth rate near 200%, set to double in
2025
Wu also pointed out that negotiations for 2025 HBM pricing have
already commenced in 2Q24. However, due to the limited overall
capacity of DRAM, suppliers have preliminarily increased prices by
5–10% to manage capacity constraints, affecting HBM2e, HBM3, and
HBM3e. This early negotiation phase is attributed to three main
factors: Firstly, HBM buyers maintain high confidence in AI demand
prospects and are willing to accept continued price increases.
Secondly, the yield rates for HBM3e's TSV currently range only
from 40% to 60%, with room for improvement. Moreover, not all major
suppliers have passed customer qualifications for HBM3e, leading
buyers to accept higher prices to secure stable and quality
supplies. Thirdly, future per Gb pricing may vary depending on DRAM
suppliers' reliability and supply capabilities, which could create
disparities in ASP and, consequently, impact profitability.
Looking ahead to 2025, from the perspective of major AI solution
providers, there will be a significant shift in HBM specification
requirements toward HBM3e, with an increase in 12Hi stack products
anticipated. This shift is expected to drive up the capacity of HBM
per chip. According to TrendForce predictions, the annual growth
rate of HBM demand will approach 200% in 2024 and is expected to
double in 2025.
For further details of this press release, including the
accompanying tables and figures, please visit:
https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20240506-12125.html
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest
tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at
https://www.trendforce.com/news/
About TrendForce (www.trendforce.com)
TrendForce is a global provider of the latest development,
insight, and analysis of the technology industry. Having served
businesses for over a decade, the company has built up a strong
membership base of 500,000 subscribers. TrendForce has established
a reputation as an organization that offers insightful and accurate
analysis of the technology industry through five major research
departments: Semiconductor Research, Display Research,
Optoelectronics Research, Green Energy Research, and ICT
Applications Research. Founded in Taipei, Taiwan in 2000,
TrendForce has extended its presence in China since 2004 with
offices in Shenzhen and Beijing.
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Ms. Esther Feng Tel: +886-2-8978-6488 ext. 667
estherfeng@trendforce.com
Ms. Pinchun Chou Tel: +886-2-8978-6488 ext. 669
pinchunchou@trendforce.com