Autonomous driving continues to be one of the most widespread
research and development activities within the global automotive
industry, as automakers and technology companies alike strive to
put advancements into production and implement them for on-road
testing and approvals.
According to a recent report from IHS Automotive, part of IHS
Inc. (NYSE: IHS) and a leading source of critical information and
insight to the global automotive industry, companies like Google
and others are currently working toward solutions in the autonomous
vehicle space, while “car- as-a-service” organizations like Uber,
Lyft and others are set to create disruption and add operational
expertise that will significantly influence autonomous vehicle
development and consumer consideration in the next decade.
It’s well known that self-driving and driverless cars are
inevitable. It is only a question of time in bringing various
options to market for consumers, and gaining their acceptance. The
report includes full IHS Automotive analysis of Google’s past
activities -- and outlines future scenarios for Google and others
in the auto industry as they continue technology developments
toward autonomous driving.
Evolutionary and Revolutionary; Diverging Paths to
Autonomy
Two primary research and development strategies to achieve
self-driving vehicles are in place today – evolutionary and
revolutionary. Most traditional automotive manufacturers are on the
evolutionary track with their R&D efforts, continuing along the
current path of improving advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS)
to partial self-driving, and eventual full self-driving
vehicles.
On the other hand, Google leads the revolutionary approach and
will have a major impact in the coming years. Uber is also
beginning to implement some of its own R&D in this arena, as it
works toward solutions for the next stage of its disruptive
transportation strategy.
Software is Key; Google Leads
The key to self-driving cars is a software that can interpret
all of a vehicles’ sensors and learn to mimic the driving skills
and experiences of the very best drivers. Google is the current
technology leader in this arena, according to IHS Automotive
estimates, which suggest the technology company has invested nearly
$60 million so far in autonomous vehicle research and development,
at a run rate of nearly $30 million per year.
Unlike traditional vehicle manufacturers, Google also has the
ability to leverage adjacent technologies and learnings from its
other projects and investments – including robotics, drones and
related technologies that help automotive operations, such as
neural networks, artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning and
machine vision. This provides Google researchers additional
expertise not available directly to traditional OEMs.
“No other company has as much relevant technology to advance
autonomous driving software,” said Egil Juliussen, PhD., senior
research director at IHS Automotive and author of the report.
Toyota’s early November announcement of a $1 billion, five-year
investment in AI, driverless cars and robotics is likely partly due
to Google’s rapid technology advances.
From this perspective, Google’s self-driving car software is
already performing better than nearly all drivers in the vast
majority of traditional driving situations -- at least in good
weather, according to IHS analysis. However, as it continues its
development, Google still must discover and teach its software the
“once in a million” events – such as performing under diverse
weather conditions, unique roadwork, specific traffic situations
and other nontraditional driving situations.
“Google is in a unique position to leverage adjacent
technologies for developing self-driving car software,” Juliussen
said, “And its strategy and goal is to provide the software and map
infrastructure to allow mobility services to anyone -- via fleets
of driverless cars -- within a decade or less.”
As a result, the car-as-a-service approach may see significant
opportunity. Currently, these services require drivers. In the
future, it is exceedingly likely that these and similar services
may be able to operate with a driverless approach.
Car-as-a-Service Set to be Major Game Changer
Car-as-a-service (CaaS) opportunities are becoming a new driving
force for urban transportation. CaaS is essentially an extension of
car-sharing, but via driverless vehicles. Google’s strategy is to
provide the technology infrastructure, maps and software to make
CaaS happen sometime after 2020. IHS Automotive analysts believe
Google is currently developing the software and maps that can be
the basis for driverless vehicles in five years or so.
IHS estimates that the deployment of driverless CaaS will begin
before 2025 and will have increasing impact as technology advances
and driverless car volumes grow. In addition, autonomous driving
and the associated costs will dramatically lower the cost of
mobility services as a whole.
CaaS also will provide car mobility services for anyone, since
no driver’s license is needed and it will be an affordable
transportation solution for a large portion of the global
population. IHS Automotive estimates there are currently 6.2
billion people globally without a driver’s license, or nearly 85
percent of the world’s population. Driverless cars can also provide
mobility services for packages and other goods requiring
transportation.
IHS Automotive currently forecasts that nearly 12 million
self-driving and driverless cars will be sold globally in 2035,
which will reflect about 10 percent of total global light vehicle
sales. With continued increasing R&D activities in autonomous
driving technologies, the current forecast could be too low.
Electric Vehicles Well-positioned for Autonomous Enablement
for CaaS Transportation
The driverless cars, and future mobility services based on them,
will also provide a major opportunity for electric vehicles.
Driverless car mobility services will mostly happen in urban areas
and will primarily be short trips. These characteristics favor EVs
as the powertrain for driverless cars; they can easily re-charge
themselves using existing and growing public charging networks as
needed between trips, which eliminates any range anxiety. IHS
Automotive forecasts that global EV charging stations will grow
from 650,000 in 2015 to more than seven million in 2021—excluding
home charging outlets.
Mega-cities and other large urban areas in the future also will
prefer the low emissions of EVs and as a result, should be keen to
implement fleets of driverless EVs in their communities. Added
benefits of EVs as part of CaaS may also lower congestion and help
to resolve other traffic-related challenges.
IHS Automotive forecasts that the global production of battery
EVs will grow from 273,000 in 2015 to 1.3 million in 2022. Global
production of plug-in hybrid EVs is projected to grow from 179,000
in 2015 to over 2.4 million in 2022, according to IHS estimates.
Driverless car fleets for CaaS are likely to greatly increase the
sales of EVs after 2025.
The complete report seeks to educate suppliers,
OEMs, technology companies and other related constituents about the
feasibility of an autonomous driving future in the global
marketplace. A copy of the full report is available for purchase
here. Alternatively, contact the IHS sales department at
+1.800.464.7655 (US) or via email Automotive@IHS.com (Global) for
additional information.
About IHS Automotive
(www.ihs.com/automotive)
IHS Automotive, part of IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), offers clients the
most comprehensive content and deepest expertise and insight on the
automotive industry available anywhere in the world today. With the
integration of Polk in 2013, IHS Automotive provides expertise and
predictive insight across the entire automotive value chain from
product inception—across design and production—to the sales and
marketing efforts used to maximize potential in the marketplace. No
other source provides a more complete picture of the global
automotive industry. IHS is the leading source of information,
insight and analytics in critical areas that shape today’s business
landscape. IHS has been in business since 1959 and became a
publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange in 2005.
Headquartered in Englewood, Colorado, USA, IHS is committed to
sustainable, profitable growth and employs about 8,800 people in 32
countries around the world.
IHS is a registered trademark of IHS Inc. All other company and
product names may be trademarks of their respective owners. © 2015
IHS Inc. All rights reserved.
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