Argentina's Conservative, Isolated Banks Shrug Off Econ Woes
May 13 2009 - 12:58PM
Dow Jones News
If investors reviewing the latest quarterly earnings from
Argentine banks didn't know otherwise, they would find it hard to
believe the country was facing twin local and international
crises.
Much as American financials did last month, Argentine banks
Grupo Financiero Galicia SA (GGAL), Banco Frances SA (BFR), Banco
Macro SA (BMA) and Banco Hipotecario SA (BHIP.BA) announced
improved first-quarter net profits this week. But unlike their U.S.
counterparts, the gains didn't reflect a rebound from
multi-billion-dollar losses in the fourth quarter but rather a
continuation of a solid year-long performance.
And yet, while the banks' shareholders have been rewarded with a
big recent market recovery, the contrast with the country's
difficult economic situation is striking.
Unlike U.S. behemoths Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C),
Argentine banks couldn't thank a rally in world financial markets
for their impressive first quarter.
Argentina's stock and bond markets severely underperformed in
the first three months of the year, with the banks' most
market-sensitive balance sheet items - their government bond
holdings - suffering most. After congressional elections were
expedited to June, speculation over a 2009 default and devaluation
grew, with the benchmark Discount bond dropping 32.7% and the
Argentine peso shedding 8% over the period.
While neighboring currencies rebounded as last year's rout
appeared to bottom out, Argentine banks faced intermittent waves of
deposit withdrawals from nervous savers last quarter. Meanwhile,
private economists pronounced that the Argentine economy had sunk
into a severe recession.
So, how did Banco Frances attain an 86-million-peso ($23
million) profit, up 15.5% on the year and four times higher than
the first quarter of 2008, while Galicia almost tripled both its
fourth-quarter and year-earlier results?
How did Banco Macro - whose shares had swooned on concern over
its exposure to a shrinking Argentine consumer credit sector - pull
off a 3% on-year increase to post a respectable ARS152 million net
profit?
And what about Banco Hipotecario, whose government-dictated
mandate is focused on Argentina's virtually nonexistent mortgage
market? It announced a ARS30-million profit, double the fourth-
quarter result and 13% higher than the first quarter of 2008.
According to Santiago Gallo, a bank analyst at Fitch Ratings,
the banks' success lies in isolation and conservatism. Conditions
that have kept bank credit in Argentina lingering at a puny 14% of
gross domestic product were a blessing in disguise when the crisis
hit.
Not only were Argentine banks unexposed to the toxic U.S.
mortgage assets, they faced only modest long-term foreign
liabilities. They've maintained high levels of liquidity and have
built earnings on fee-based income rather than financial
intermediation.
"It's not as if the international crisis hasn't found its way
into the country - it has done so via falling commodity prices,
weaker exports and a downturn in economic activity generally," said
Gallo. "But the country is isolated in a certain way from the
financial transmission of the crisis."
Gallo said banks turned conservative following the huge losses
and PR headaches they suffered during the deposit freezes of
2001-2002. After that crisis, he said, "they saw that the only way
to make income was through commissions" instead of credit.
This conservatism, which translates into a highly selective
approach toward prospective borrowers, has especially paid
dividends for consumer-focused Banco Macro, whose shares have
gained 61% since March 31.
Admiring Macro's capacity to get its non-collectible loan
charges down from ARS200 million in the fourth quarter to just
ARS26 million in the first, local consultancy Research for Traders
said Tuesday that the bank had "consolidated to become the most
profitable institution (in the country) despite the international
context."
Banco Hipotecario's outlook is cloudier, partly because of
increasing government intervention. State-owned Banco Nacion owns
more than 50% of the bank, but until recently the government had
played a passive hand in management. That changed with the ouster
of long-term Chief Executive Clarisa Lifsic and the appointment of
two new government-assigned directors to Hipotecario's board. Even
so, the bank's shares are up 43% so far this quarter.
Meanwhile, the two biggest private banks, Banco Frances and
Grupo Galicia - might now be indirectly benefiting from last year's
otherwise harmful pension fund nationalization.
Recent Treasury debt placements to the newly cashed-up state
retirement agency Anses, while angering pensioner activists, have
assuaged market fears over some coming payments on government
bonds, which loom large in these two banks' portfolios. The
Discount bond is up 36% since March 31; Galicia and Frances shares
are up 49% and 50%, respectively.
-By Michael Casey, Dow Jones Newswires;
michael.j.casey@dowjones.com; 54-11-4103 6740