Continually rising mortgage rates are further
eroding affordability—and this week's Fed meeting confirmed that
mortgage rates are likely to hold steady for the foreseeable
future
(NASDAQ: RDFN) —The median home-sale price rose from a year
earlier or stayed the same in all 50 of the most populous U.S.
metros during the four weeks ending April 28, the first time that
has happened since July 2022. That’s according to a new report from
Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate
brokerage.
Nationwide, the median sale price rose to a near-record
$383,188, up 4.8% year over year. Mortgage rates also continued
climbing, with the weekly average hitting its highest level in five
months. High prices and rates drove the median monthly housing
payment to a record $2,890, up 15% year over year.
Home-price increases were driven by affluent metros and a pair
of more affordable places: Anaheim, CA, where prices rose over 20%
year over year, took the top spot. It’s followed by Detroit
(14.9%), San Jose, CA (13.6%), West Palm Beach, FL (13.4%) and New
Brunswick, NJ (12.8%). The metros with the smallest price increases
were in Texas and Florida: Dallas (unchanged), Austin (0.3%), San
Antonio (0.6%), Fort Worth (1.9%), and Tampa (2.2%).
Low inventory is driving up prices. New listings are up
15% year over year, but they’re still well below typical April
levels: There were fewer new listings this April than any year on
record except 2023 and 2020. The year-over-year increase is also
inflated because of the Easter effect; Easter didn’t fall into the
four weeks included in this year’s data, but the holiday did fall
into last year’s comparable time period. Some homeowners are
hesitant to list their homes because economic indicators point to
interest rates staying higher for longer than expected, potentially
exacerbating the mortgage-rate lock-in effect.
Homebuying demand is softening as rates rise. Some Redfin
agents are reporting that the recent uptick in mortgage rates is
scaring buyers away, and mortgage-purchase applications declined 2%
week over week. Still, there are enough buyers out there to keep
prices propped up: Redfin's Homebuyer Demand Index—a measure of
requests for tours and other buying services from Redfin agents—is
up 3% from a month ago, sitting near its highest level since
August.
This week’s economic news keeps mortgage rates in a holding
pattern. At their May 1 meeting, the Fed held interest rates
steady, as expected, but kept open the possibility of rate cuts
later this year. “The Fed meeting is unlikely to push mortgage
rates down—but the good news is that it won’t push them up, either,
which could have happened if the Fed took 2024 rate cuts off the
table,” said Redfin Economic Research Lead Chen Zhao. “Even though
housing costs shouldn’t climb much more, they will remain elevated
for the foreseeable future, which could push more buyers away. But
for serious house hunters who can afford today’s mortgage rates and
find a home they love, jumping on it now isn’t a bad idea, given
the fact that inventory is low and costs aren’t dropping anytime
soon.”
For more of Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market,
including how current financial events are impacting mortgage
rates, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Leading indicators
Indicators of homebuying demand and
activity
Value (if applicable)
Recent change
Year-over-year change
Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage
rate
7.41% (May 1)
Up from 6.91% one month earlier; near
highest level since November 2023
Up from 6.73%
Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage
rate
7.17% (week ending April 25)
Up from 6.79% a month earlier; highest
level since November 2023
Up from 6.43%
Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications
(seasonally adjusted)
Decreased 2% from a week earlier (as of
week ending April 26)
Down 14%
Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index
(seasonally adjusted)
Up 3% from a month earlier (as of week
ending April 28)
Down 9%
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure
of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin
agents
Touring activity
Up 33% from the start of the year (as of
April 28)
At this time last year, it was up 28% from
the start of 2023
ShowingTime, a home touring technology
company
Google searches for “home for
sale”
Unchanged from a month earlier (as of
April 29)
Down 14%
Google Trends
Key housing-market data
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending
April 28, 2024
Redfin’s national metrics include data
from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or
sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back
through 2015. Subject to revision.
Four weeks ending April 28,
2024
Year-over-year change
Notes
Median sale price
$383,188
4.8%
Just $73 shy of all-time high
Median asking price
$420,450
7.7%
All-time high; biggest increase since
Sept. 2022
Median monthly mortgage payment
$2,890 at a 7.17% mortgage
rate
14.7%
All-time high
Pending sales
88,408
-3.4%
The decline in pending sales would likely
be bigger if not for the Easter effect: Easter didn’t fall into the
4-week period ending April 28, 2024, but it did fall into last
year’s comparable period
New listings
101,065
15.2%
Biggest increase in nearly 3 years, though
that’s partly because of the Easter effect: Easter didn’t fall into
the 4-week period ending April 28, 2024, but it did fall into last
year’s comparable period
Active listings
856,350
11.8%
Months of supply
3.4 months
+0.6 pts.
4 to 5 months of supply is considered
balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market
conditions
Share of homes off market in two
weeks
43.9%
Down from 47%
Median days on market
34
Unchanged
Share of homes sold above list
price
30.4%
Essentially unchanged
Share of homes with a price
drop
6.2%
+1.9 pts.
Highest level since Nov. 2022
Average sale-to-list price
ratio
99.3%
+0.1 pt.
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks
ending April 28, 2024
Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50
most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time
to time to ensure data accuracy.
Metros with biggest year-over-year
increases
Metros with biggest year-over-year
decreases
Notes
Median sale price
Anaheim, CA (22.8%)
Detroit (14.9%)
San Jose, CA (13.6%)
West Palm Beach, FL (13.4%)
New Brunswick, NJ (12.8%)
Prices were unchanged in Dallas
Increased or stayed the same in all
metros
Pending sales
San Jose, CA (15%)
Milwaukee (5.5%)
Cincinnati (5.1%)
Seattle (5.1%)
Columbus, OH (4.7%)
Phoenix (-13.8%)
Riverside, CA (-12.2%)
Atlanta (-11.9%)
Houston (-11.8%)
Jacksonville, FL (-11.3%)
Increased in 10 metros
New listings
San Jose, CA (53.2%)
Oakland, CA (34.4%)
Phoenix (28.6%)
Seattle (28.4%)
Miami (28%)
Milwaukee (-0.3%)
Declined in just 1 metro, partly because
of the Easter effect described above
To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-home-price-cost-increases
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate
company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage,
rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run
the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save
thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying
customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and
title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home
can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our
rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments
and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers
more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100
markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000
people.
Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity
Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and
WalkScore®.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate
agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends
and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to
Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com.
To view Redfin's press center, click here.
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240502140012/en/
Redfin Journalist Services: Kenneth Applewhaite, 206-414-8880
press@redfin.com
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