Housing Permits Show a Rise - Real Time Insight
February 20 2013 - 4:48AM
Zacks
We found out this morning
the housing market is continuing to look stronger. Housing
starts are up +24% from this time last year, but are still well
below a bubble peak near 2.3 million units in
2006.
First, the leading
housing indicator, which is building permits, was
up:
The government reported
Wed. Feb. 20 that building permits, a sign of future demand, rose
+1.8% in January to a rate of 925,000 -- the highest rate since
June 2008. Permits for single-family homes rose +1.9% to a rate of
584,000. Permits for structures with two or more units (aka
apartments) increased +1.5% to a rate of 341,000.
Key
Facts
- 56% of single-family
permits are started in the same month,
while
- 62% of apartments are
started within that month or the one
following.
- 71% of single-family
houses are completed in six
months.
- Only 20% of apartments
are completed in six months.
Next, coincident
indicators, single family and apartment starts, were
mixed:
Starts for single-family
homes ticked up +0.8% to a rate of 613,000, the highest rate since
July 2008.
But starts for structures
with two or more units (aka apartments) fell -24% in January to a
rate of 277,000.
Finally, the lagging
indicator, construction, was down:
Led lower by apartments,
construction on new U.S. homes fell -8.5% in January to 890,000
(SAAR) units, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S.
Department of Commerce. Forecasters thought January's starts would
decline to 914,000 units.
This was a
miss.
On the brighter side, a
preliminary December construction estimate of 954,000 units, on
lower apartment construction, was revised up to
973,000.
More apartments were
completed in December than thought, and this pulled down the
January construction numbers.
What is your take
on these numbers? Is this going to help or hurt the housing
stocks and the overall market?
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