With the election over, many investors assumed that one of the
key risk events for U.S. markets was past us. However, this
certainly hasn’t been the case, as the election worries were just
replaced and expanded upon by fiscal cliff terror.
This panic over across the board tax hikes and trillions in
spending cuts has pushed many investors to sell out of a great deal
of their stocks with a special focus on many of the year’s top
performers. This movement to selling, coupled with more European
woes and uncertain domestic data, has pushed stocks across the
board sharply lower over the past week as the rush for the exits
continues.
The impact on stocks has been especially felt in
dividend-focused securities, although a number of other segments
were also hit hard. Seemingly, not a single sector has been immune
from the selling pressure, leaving many investors to wonder where
is still safe to put assets at this time (read Invest like Warren
Buffett with These ETFs).
Although it took a bit of digging, we have found one corner of
the equity world that hasn’t seen a rash of selling over the past
week; biotechnology. This corner of the health care industry has
held up surprisingly well despite the market turmoil and it has
pretty much been a safe haven in this shaky economic environment; a
speck of green in what has turned into a sea of red.
What Happened?
This is somewhat surprising given that many biotech stocks have
been strong performers in 2012, and over the past few years, have
been among the biggest gainers in the entire equity world. As a
result, one might assume that they would be subject to intense
selling in order to lock in low tax rates, but that has not been
the case, at least so far.
There is also a deal of uncertainty over Affordable Care Act
implementation and how it will actually impact the various health
care sectors. Many don’t believe that biotechs will be the worst
hit, but with more lax rules on generics and the prospect of
increased competition, this could be the case even if patient rolls
expand (read Top Zacks Ranked Healthcare ETF in Focus).
Confluence of Factors
With these points, it seems questionable that biotechs would be
leading the way in the space, but there is one thing that the
sector does have going for it, dividends, or really the lack there
of. Biotechs aren’t exactly a yield destination so there hasn’t
been as much panic selling in this segment as opposed to other
corners of the health care world.
In addition to this, the earnings picture remains pretty solid
for biotechnology firms as a whole, although this space can have
extremely divergent performances among the various components.
Still, the Zacks industry of Medical- Biomedicine/Gene receives a
pretty positive Zacks Rank overall, enough to put it roughly in the
top 25%, at time of writing.
These factors of low dividend pressure and a decent earnings
picture have been enough to outweigh broad selling of big winners
and concerns over the ACA at this time. This tilt towards the
positive has been enough for many biotech stocks, as well as ETFs,
to outperform during this troubled time.
In fact, several of the ETFs in this space, which we highlight
briefly below, have been performing rather well in this
environment, losing less than the broad market, or in some cases,
putting up a post-election gain (see Three ETFs to Prepare for the
Fiscal Cliff)
While this may not continue if the selling pressure intensifies
or if investors look to take gains out of this space before it is
too late, for investors looking for a potential fiscal cliff safe
haven, a closer look at any of the following four ETFs could be
worthwhile:
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB)
IBB is one of the more popular biotech ETFs on the market today
with just under $2 billion in AUM and volume of roughly half a
million shares a day. The product is also middle of the road in
terms of expenses, with an expense ratio of 48 basis points a
year.
The fund holds just under 120 stocks in total in its basket,
with just over 50% of the assets going to firms that are smaller
than large caps. Top stocks in the ETF include Regeneron
Pharma (REGN), Amgen (AMGN), and
Gilead (GILD), all of which make up at least 8% of
assets.
The fund has gained roughly 0.6% in the past five day period,
easily beating out broad benchmarks.
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI)
Another popular choice in the biotech ETF market is XBI, a fund
tracking the S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index. The
product has just over half a billion in assets and does more than a
quarter million in volume, while its cost is just 35 basis points a
year (read Three Biggest Mistakes of ETF Investing).
The fund has a smaller basket of stocks with just under 50
stocks in its basket, and only 18% in large cap securities. Micro
and small caps dominate, while the top three holdings consist of
BioMarin (BMRN), Gilead (GILD),
and Myriad Genetics (MYGN), all of which account
for less than 4.1% of assets.
The fund is down about 0.8% in the past five days, although it
should be noted this is mostly due to a weak Thursday performance
and that this is still far better than the S&P 500.
First Trust Amex Biotechnology Index Fund
(FBT)
First Trust’s entrant in the biotech market tracks the Amex
biotechnology Index, utilizing an equal weight technique for its
approach. The fund is more expensive at 60 basis points a year
while volume and AUM are respectable at 50,000 shares a day and AUM
of $200 million, although obviously less than others on the
list.
Once again, large caps make up a small portion, just 30% of
assets, while small and micro caps make up a plurality of assets.
Top holdings include the aforementioned MYGN and
BMRN, as well as Sequenom (SQNM),
each of which make up, on average, 6% of the fund.
FBT is down just 30 basis points in the past five days, easily
beating out the S&P 500 in the same time frame while also
possessing a Zacks ETF Rank of 2 or ‘Buy’ (see Three Defensive ETFs
for a Bear Market).
Market Vectors Biotech ETF (BBH)
The least popular of the bunch—but still with a decent level of
assets—is BBH a fund from Van Eck that tracks the Market Vectors US
Listed Biotech 25 Index. The ETF has over $140 million in AUM and
daily volume of about 30,000 shares, while it is also a lost cost
pick with expenses of 35 basis points a year.
This is the only large cap centric fund on the list as it has
over 55% of assets in that level and just 14% in small caps or
micro caps. Additionally, it is somewhat concentrated from an
individual security perspective with AMGN and
GILD combining to take up about 30% of assets in
this fund which only holds about 25 other stocks to begin with.
In this relatively short time period, BBH has been the best
performer of the group adding about 2.4%. Probably, the fund was
buoyed by its large cap focus when compared to the other choices in
the space over the past week.
Long Term Outlook
While these four ETFs have managed to hold up in the face of
extreme selling pressure, investors should note that the outlook
for the space is very mixed. Current Zacks ETF Ranks range from
‘Buy’ to ‘Sell’ across the space, so there could be some volatility
in this market.
This could be especially true as the impact of the Affordable
Care Act is better known and the result of new policies regarding
drug availability, patents, and ‘biosimilars’ truly hits the
market.
Yet while the long term impact may be cloudy, the short-term is
apparently quite bullish—at least relatively speaking—for this
overlooked sector, suggesting it could be a decent play during this
crisis environment as more fiscal cliff negotiations get
underway.
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AMGEN INC (AMGN): Free Stock Analysis Report
MKT VEC-BIOTECH (BBH): ETF Research Reports
FT-AMEX BIOTEC (FBT): ETF Research Reports
GILEAD SCIENCES (GILD): Free Stock Analysis Report
ISHARES NDQ BIO (IBB): ETF Research Reports
SPDR-SP BIOTECH (XBI): ETF Research Reports
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