By Yusuf Khan

The goal of removing world hunger is unlikely to be achieved by 2030, despite improvements in crop yields and agricultural practices, according to a new report on Wednesday from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

Food output and farming practices are likely to improve agricultural productivity over the next decade, but at the moment these improvements are unlikely to reduce emissions from agriculture or achieve zero hunger by 2030.

"To achieve the zero-hunger target while simultaneously keeping agricultural emissions on track to reach the Paris Agreement targets, average global agricultural productivity would need to increase by 28% over the next decade," the report said, adding that this would be more than triple the increase in productivity that has been seen over the past 10 years.

Crop yields would need to be 24% higher, which is close to double the rate of improvement over the past decade, while animal productivity would need to increase by 31% on average, the report said.

The two bodies called for "comprehensive action to boost agricultural investment and innovation and to enable the transfer of knowledge, technology, and skills" to help improve agricultural productivity.

"We need to do new things and invest in new things, but also think about doing things differently," Lee Ann Jackson, head of the OECD's agro-food trade and markets division, said. More digital options could improve productivity while also cutting emissions, she added.

Food consumption is likely to increase by 1.4% a year through 2031, outstripping the growth in agricultural output which is likely to be 1.1% a year, according to the report. The increase in consumption is likely to be driven by lower income countries which are likely to have higher rates of population growth, it said.

Macroeconomic uncertainty is also going to be a major factor in determining agricultural output and economic growth over the next 10 years given the effect of the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war on supply chains and the economy as a whole, according to the report. The report noted that the International Monetary Fund projected global gross domestic product to grow by 2.7% a year on average over the next decade, "which is below the [prepandemic] projections."

Meat production is likely to rise by 1.5% a year over the next decade on improvements in feed for animals, according to the report. This increase is likely to be dominated by poultry, which should make up roughly half of the growth in meat consumption, it said.

The report had taken into account some of the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war, noting both countries' importance in the global food supply chain--for example, 10% and 3% of global wheat production coming from Russia and Ukraine, respectively.

Wheat prices could remain 19% higher than pre-war levels if Ukraine's exports continue to remain restricted and could be 34% higher if Russia's exports are cut by half, OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said in a press conference. "Export bans or export restrictions make the bad food security situation even worse for the world's poorest," he added.

The OECD and the UN FAO said because of the war, the large number of displaced people raises food-security concerns and that undernourishment is likely to increase by about 1% globally in 2022-23, the equivalent of around 8 million to 13 million people. This could rise to 19 million people by 2023-24 if the shortfall from Ukraine continues and no global response is taken.

Aside from food, demand for first generation biofuel feedstocks is likely to have limited growth to 2031 on lower fuel use and "weaker policy incentives in key markets, such as the European Union." India and Indonesia are likely have growth in this area, driven by "increasing fuel use, and efforts to support the domestic farm sector through higher biofuel blending rates."

Write to Yusuf Khan at yusuf.khan@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 29, 2022 05:57 ET (09:57 GMT)